Arctic Ambitions with Greenland's Independance

For nearly three centuries, Greenland has remained under Denmark's governance since 1721. However, a preliminary constitution revealed in April 2023 has become the most compelling signal thus far of an impending divergence. As rivalry escalates concerning the valuable resources found in the area – encompassing reserves of oil, gas, and vital rare earth minerals – the potential implications of a sovereign Greenland on the Arctic stage come into question.

Greenland, a self-governing territory under Danish jurisdiction, achieved its autonomy in 1979. Despite this, the island remains significantly dependent on Denmark for economic backing and the administration of crucial aspects like monetary policies, defense, and international relations. Within international forums such as the United Nations, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and European Union (EU), representatives from Greenland collaborate with their Danish counterparts. While Greenland possesses an overseas country and territory designation within the EU, it retains a non-membership status.

Over the course of the last twenty years, the push for Greenland to gain independence has gained momentum. In a referendum held in 2008, an impressive 75 percent of the populace of Greenland expressed their support for the Act on Greenland Self-Government. This pivotal legislation bestowed upon the island a broader scope of control, extending to domains such as law enforcement, judicial proceedings, and maritime security, among many others. Encompassed within this legislation is the provision that Greenland could potentially attain complete independence via a referendum, contingent upon the Danish Parliament's endorsement.

In a significant development in April 2023, a constitutional commission introduced Greenland's inaugural draft constitution to the Inatsisartut, the island's parliamentary body.

Why does Greenland's Independence matter?

Experts suggest that in the event of Greenland's independence, a complete severance of connections with Denmark might be improbable. Although Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede of Greenland expresses his backing for sovereignty, he underscores the importance of a step-by-step process. Even prominent proponents of independence like the Naleraq party in Greenland have shown an inclination for ongoing collaboration with Denmark. Nonetheless, achieving independence would finally resolve the persistent uncertainty regarding the allocation of decision-making authority between Nuuk and Copenhagen.

Greenland possesses one of the tiniest economies globally. Despite endeavors towards expansion, Greenland's dependence on local fisheries as its primary income remains, and a yearly subsidy exceeding $500 million from Denmark constitutes 20 percent of the island's economy and over 50 percent of its public budget. Additionally, with a population of merely fifty-seven thousand, the island faces a restricted workforce availability, which also poses a challenge.

However, there would also arise prospects for development. The national shipping company of Greenland, entrusted with overseeing all local and international maritime activities, has recently transferred its central operations from Denmark to Greenland. This strategic move sets the stage for future expansion that reaches beyond the confines of the North Atlantic. Escalating temperatures have facilitated increased accessibility to deposits of rare earth metals, capturing the attention of foreign investors, including both China and Western nations. These investors are eager to lessen their reliance on competitors. Moreover, the island is reputed to possess substantial reservoirs of oil and natural gas. Nevertheless, the government has suspended the issuance of fresh exploration licenses since 2021, citing apprehensions about climate implications and the modest expectations of profitability. Concurrently, Egede has conveyed a wish to foster growth within the tourism sector, a development that could challenge the island's currently constrained infrastructure.

At present, Denmark holds the responsibility for safeguarding Greenland, given the absence of an indigenous military force on the island. Residents of Greenland possess the option to enlist in the Danish armed forces, which maintain a modest presence on the island through a small fleet of aircraft, ships, and a dog-sled patrol. Additionally, Greenland accommodates the Danish Joint Arctic Command and U.S. military troops, enjoying NATO protection through its affiliation with Denmark.

The prospective security agreements for a self-governing Greenland remain uncertain. Advocates, however, often draw attention to the precedent of Iceland, a former Danish territory that has since become a NATO member, as a potential model.

Stakes in The Arctic:

The impact of climate change is hastening the geopolitical rivalry in the Arctic region, driven by escalating temperatures that facilitate access to previously inaccessible natural resources, such as gold and iron ore. Substantial reservoirs of rare earth metals, crucial for the manufacturing of advanced technologies and electric vehicles, are thought to be concealed beneath Greenland's ice. Simultaneously, Arctic nations are actively pursuing untapped oil and gas reserves in the Arctic Ocean, estimated to encompass 10 to 30 percent of the world's undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.

The rapid temperature rise in the Arctic is also initiating the opening of new maritime routes, particularly in the Bering Strait and the passage between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. These two pathways hold not only significant strategic and military importance but also the potential to significantly shorten shipping distances for vessels currently utilizing the Panama and Suez Canals by up to fifty percent.

The Role of Other Powers:

Among the eight nations holding Arctic territories, the United States has emerged as a pivotal player in Greenland following Denmark. Its involvement traces back to World War II, with a military presence anchored around the Pituffik Space Base – the northernmost U.S. military installation and a key component of the nation's ballistic missile warning system. Through successive U.S. administrations, the strengthening bond with Greenland suggests that the prospect of independence is unlikely to disrupt this relationship. Despite initial resistance to his idea of purchasing the island from Denmark, President Donald Trump not only reopened the U.S. consulate in Greenland but also pledged over $12 million in assistance. The Joe Biden administration further solidified this connection, sealing a twelve-year, $3.95 billion agreement to maintain a military presence on the island, and appointing the first U.S. ambassador-at-large for the Arctic.

Additionally, Western powers have expressed concerns over escalating Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic region. Russia asserts extensive claims in the Arctic, encompassing certain sectors of Greenland's exclusive economic zone, and its substantial military activity in the area has raised apprehensions among NATO members. Beijing's aspirations in the Arctic are equally conspicuous, marked by increased investments in regional endeavors over the past decade. Some experts speculate that Greenland could capitalize on the anxiety surrounding growing Chinese and Russian sway to garner heightened backing from Western nations.

What Happens Next?

The forthcoming parliamentary election in Greenland, currently slated for 2025, carries the potential to serve as an indicator of the trajectory of the independence movement. This is underscored by a 2019 survey, which indicated that more than two-thirds of the adult population in Greenland are in favor of independence. Nonetheless, many aspects of the provisions within the 2023 draft constitution remain shrouded in ambiguity.

Simultaneously, this discourse is situated at the forefront of significant geopolitical fault lines. The acceleration of climate change is intensifying competition in the Arctic to an unprecedented extent, thereby unlocking the region for heightened economic and strategic rivalries. This occurs precisely when Russia, China, and Western powers are all actively striving to expand their military influence in the area.

Please be informed that this article contains research from various articles and is not of primary sources, and does not intend to be of any means of harm to any government, entity, or individual.