How would another Trump presidency affect the world?

How would another Trump presidency affect the world?

  November 5th, 2024 maybe one of the most important days in history. It may determine the course of the future. On that day, the most powerful country in the world votes for its president. The next six months will be filled with opinion polls and excessive focus on the American elections. 

  This election, a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, pits one of the most divisive Presidents in the country against one of the most disliked. Neither is a good option for the American people. As of May, 59% of Americans disapprove of President Biden, while 53% disapprove of former President Trump. By this metric and many election forecasts, Mr Trump will edge Mr Biden to gain the most powerful position in the world. This will bring great change to world order. It will cause the global superpower to be much more erratic in its foreign policy, leading to greater global tensions. 

  How America approaches NATO and maintains this alliance will be integral to Global security. If Mr Trump's previous term as President is any indication, the countries which are a part of the alliance will have to be much more independant. With Mr Trump’s threats to the bloc’s founding document and especially its 5th article (stating that if one country is attacked, all countries must respond), countries at risk of attack from Russia, such as those in the Baltics, cannot depend on the United States. The deterioration of this alliance will lead to the Western order being greatly reshuffled and cause the European continent’s security to be threatened. 

  America’s neighbours, predominantly Mexico, will also be gravely affected by this radical change in foreign policy. The United States’ southern neighbour has constantly caused it issues, especially with drugs and illegal immigration. Donald Trump’s likely ascendency to this role will cause relations with Mexico to sour as it bolsters border defences and limits immigration into the country, deporting illegal immigrants. However, with the next American President facing a more right-wing Mexican President in Claudia Sheinbaum, if Trump is elected, he might face a more agreeable southern neighbour. The USA’s relations with its northern neighbours may also be greatly affected, as Mr Trump's previous term as president resulted in contentious trade negotiations and name-calling by both heads of state. 

  China will face many issues after this election, with both potential candidates being Sino-sceptics. However, Donald Trump will be more content with raising trade barriers against China as shown in his proposal to impose tariffs on 60% of China’s exports to the USA. As the countries continue their trade war and America continues raising trade barriers, the People’s Republic might end up trading less with its largest trade partner. It will also face greater scrutiny for its attempts to subjugate the island of Taiwan. 

  America’s Asian allies, especially Japan and South Korea may also be less secure if Donald Trump becomes president. If his “America first” policy endures, these countries may face a large threat from multiple sides, primarily North Korea. The country, equipped with nuclear weapons, may seek to target the South as tensions are already rising. With a potential withdrawal of American presence from the region, the North’s threats will be reinvigorated.

  Russia might be one of the few countries that may benefit from a Trump Presidency. Donald Trump’s Republican party is much less likely to approve support for Ukraine, leading to an easier campaign for Russia when it plans its next offensive into the country. It will also encourage Russia to attack other European countries as America’s commitment to security on the continent falters. This will give Vladimir Putin much more leeway and allow him to continue on his crusade to restore Russia.

  Another country to gain will be Israel. The country may experience a great uptick in support for its campaign in Gaza, due to the relatively cordial relations between President Trump and Benyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister. Mr Netenyahu’s right-wing coalition government will also gel with the right-wing ideologies of Mr Trump. Saudi Arabia will also benefit from this upheaval of American policy, as the previous Trump administration focused much of its efforts on limiting Iranian power and aiding the monarchy in its series of proxy wars against Iranian factions.

  India will also greatly benefit from a Trump 2.0. The relations between Mr Trump and Prime Minister Modi of India are strong, leading to the countries engaging in numerous partnerships to increase development in India. The two countries converging interests, especially concerning China, make them perfect partners. The countries have to build stronger ties soon. This could be by involving India in more Western military pacts.

  The World must be much more cautious as America may retreat into its “America First” rhetoric. While some may benefit from this lack of Global leadership, this will only lead to greater tensions and a more dangerous world. The prospect of a crumbling of the Western world order might be around the corner. All this depends on the feelings of the 330 million people living in the most powerful country on Earth.