Europe's Rightward Shift

Europe’s Rightward Shift

  This year's EU elections may be one of the most telling in the bloc's history. They point to a long-term change in the politics of Europe and how the continent will continue in the future. Europe is experiencing a lunge across the political spectrum, as voters are dissatisfied with leftist and centrist governments and have begun supporting more fringe parties and far-right institutions.

  The election results showed two main winners – the right-wing ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) and ID (Identity and Democracy) parties, who control 131 seats in the 720-seat legislature. While this is not close to a majority, it is an improvement over previous elections, accounting for other right-wing parties, and allies more than 150 legislators. This might be enough to signal to the parliament that they are to be taken seriously as a major voting bloc. 

  However, the main EU government is still likely to be formed under Ursula Von Der Leyen, the current President of the European Commission and her centrist EPP (European People’s Party) party, in alliance with others. This alliance, likely to consist of the EPP, the S&D (Socialists and Democrats) and Renew Europe, will have almost 40 fewer seats, all conceded to the right-wing parties. 

  This phenomenon appeared in many elections in Europe over the past few years. It started in Poland in 2015, with the election of the right-wing PiS (Law and Justice) party. This party changed the face of Poland by limiting rights, banning abortion, and enforcing draconian laws, which prompted protests and their eventual regression from power in 2023. 

  This continued in the recent  French elections, with the far-right National Rally party securing larger and larger shares of the vote; especially in the 2022 French General Elections, where they gained almost 42% of the vote. It is expected to outperform in the Legislative elections called by the French President, Emmanuel Macron, this year in reaction to the EU election results. This signals that the National Rally will win the next French General Election, and its leader, Marine le Pen, will become the next President.

  Germany has also been affected by this, with the AfD (Alternative for Germany) party polling above all the parties in the ruling coalition and coming second in total. It might become a kingmaker in the German general election next year. 

  If part of the government, it would form the most right-wing German Government since the Second World War. This could cause delays in Germany’s shift towards renewable energy and a much stricter immigration policy.

  Italy might be one of the countries where a rightward shift is most visible.  Italy, a politically unstable country, has seen many Prime Ministers from ruling coalitions. The current one, however, might be the most right-wing and stable coalition thus far. Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party secured a large win in the last Italian elections in 2022, and Ms. Meloni is one of Europe’s most popular leaders, who is likely to win the re-election and continue Italy’s shift rightwards.

  Another major European country that is shifting rightwards is Spain. In its General Election in 2023, the right-wing PP (Popular Party) and Vox party won big, with the PP winning the most seats. However, it was unable to form a coalition and form a government. It is possible, that it will form the next government in Spain, as the population has grown upset with the current government, with 46% of people having no confidence in Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, versus 8% with opposing views, according to a Statista poll. 

  This drastic shift to the extreme right is also visible in the Netherlands, which has just elected its most right-wing government yet. The PVV (Party for Freedom) won the most seats in the 150-seat Dutch legislature and formed a ruling coalition with other right-wing parties, including a far-right populist farmers’ party. This government might introduce several anti-immigration laws to satisfy its pledge to the public to reduce immigration.

  All this points to the fact that Europeans are getting frustrated with regular, centrist parties and their governance. Their needs aren't being met by standard, pre-existing parties- therefore, newer, more radical parties are overtaking the continent. The issues plaguing citizens differ from country to country. 

  In the Netherlands, a major issue for farmers is reducing carbon emissions, while in Germany, Italy and France, it is immigration. Spain faces a large poverty crisis. The populist parties gaining ground in these elections all try to fix these issues in drastic ways. Whether this shift in Europe will be sustained is only a test of time.