1. Prediction of growth rate on WDIRC

This is an innovative cooking product in markets, there are no similar cooking devices liked this to be compared with each other. Therefore the growth rate of WDIRC in selling is based on the trend of IOT market and our experiences, the prediction of the growth rate is shown in Table 1. As we think, the first year is a starting to sell WDIRCs, the popularity and the exposure ratio in media are not enough for promoting this product, so the revenue in the beginning is lower. However we assume the growth rates (G.R.) with time is shown in the table below, after ten years the G.R. should be had 19.52 times than the first. Due to the exclusive, consuming ability and GDP growth, the revenue of Market A will be superior to other markets. The total sales will growth from 97,155 to 1,896,030 sets. This prediction is based on the parameters by equation (5), if the future the conditions (households/population, buying rate, price and sharing ratio) are changing, all of predictions with time will be changed also. Basically we think the trend of IOT-EC will be the dominant by the coming, so we can optimize to face on this change. Generally these incomes from market A, B and C should be great than this prediction.

Fig. 1 shows the curve of growth on revenue with time from market A, B and C. The growth of total revenue presents an exponential growing with time; in the first three years, the revenue has a lower baseline due to a new product, since our product to be selling in markets for a period, the share of market it will grow up fast in markets through any strategies on marketing. By the end of ten years, the growth rate we predict, they will grow up to 19.52, 16.47 and 15.83 times for market A, B and C, respectively. The total growth rate will be predicted as 18.92 times than baseline by averaged. By the equation (1), the growth rate per year is 1.9874 times, the growth is very high.

Eq. 1 GrowthRate = 1.9874 * year-0.8466 (r² = 0.9974)

If we estimated the volume of WDIRC products sell to market A, B and C. Figure 2 is the result. At the start, selling of WDIRC in market A, B and C are 4,793, 17,782 and 97,155 sets respectively. Total in market ABC is estimated as 119,730 sets. With time increases, the volume also increases till as a plateau phase, ten times over the end of this estimation. It will sell about 2.264 million sets per year in these markets, whatever in market A, it always keep the biggest growth up especial in China market where includes the maximum number consumers. By the equation (2), the company can predicate the growth rate is 237,952 sets per year in market A, B and C, which will get a large income to the company.

Eq. 2 YearSales = 237,952*Year-101,360 (r² = 0.9974)

2. Revenue prediction of WDIRC

According to the prediction of growth rate, the revenue of selling WDIRC can be estimated by Table 2. By this distribution of households, market A has 531,790,136 households; here it owns the biggest market, therefore it also has the most revenue among these three markets. In the first year, we estimate the revenue is 30.356, 5.379 and 1.206 million US dollars in market A, B and C, respectively. The total revenue is 36.942 million US dollars by this estimation. If the profit is set to 10% as revenue, then for one year we can earn about 3.694 million US dollars. After then, the income and profit will increase with time, at the end of tenth year; we expect the revenue for whole year that in market A, B and C are 572.422, 84.203 and 19.133 million US dollars, respectively. Fig. 3 shows the growth curve on revenue change with time. The summation of market A, B and C on revenue is 36.942 million and 675.760 million US dollars from the first to tenth year, respectively. There are almost twenty folds growths in this decade. Moreover, if we consider the incomes from other areas such as those unpatented countries, the revenue should be increasing more than our expectation. Also for Market B or C, they have more opportunities to increase the revenue if their economic and ICT developments reach a higher level, the demand of automatic cooking device must be increasing naturally.

Eq. 3 Revenue = 70M*Year-30M (r² = 0.9977)

3. Cost for making WDIRC appliance with time

Table 3 shows the cost estimation for mass producing WDIRC apparatus with time; here we assume the manufacture cost of WDIRC to be 200 US dollars by averaged (Pricing referenced as Table 3, 5 and, 7 on the web page of sale estimation of WDIRC, which ranged from $200 to $350 USD). In the first year, for selling 97,155, 17,782, and 4,793 sets within market A, B and C, the budget we need for making WDIRC is 19.413, 3.556 and 0.958 million US dollars. Totally we need about 23.946 million USDs to make 119,730 sets to meet the demands in markets. With the time, the volume and the cost both increase up at the same time. Till reach the end of this prediction (ten years later), sales in market A, B and C are 1,896,030, 292,905 and 75,881 sets, respectively. By the manufacture costs, they are 379.206, 58.581 and 15.176 million USD in market A, B and C. Finally we predict that the sale and cost will approach to 2.264 million sets and 452.963 million USD. According to this estimation, the demands of WDIRC in markets are strong in the future, we need to prepare enough money for manufacture and operation, and however, the budget doesn’t need more at once. We need to consider the development strategy which area or country is the first selling and how many sets we need to produce at the begin. Basically based on the culture of rice, the market volume and the origin of invention, Taiwan or China could be the first candidate for developing this product; Perhaps Taiwan is superior to China due to its GDP, R&D and the acceptability, and we can product WDIRC apparatus with small amount for testing the market before mass producing. Whatever the priority area for entering the market is important that we need to consider in many ways. The cost growth with time on manufacture of WDIRC is shown in Fig. 4 Based this prediction, we can estimate the cost by the equation (4), the cost will increase 50 million USD per year if we accord to this prediction to make the products.

Eq. 4 Cost = 50M * year – 20M (r² = 0.9974)

4. Profits estimation on selling WDIRC with years

As with years, the estimation of profits on selling WDIRC is shown in Table 4A and B. The calculation of profits is based on the different between revenue and cost; here we can estimate the profits among in market A, B and C. For example, at the first year, the profits we estimated them in market A, B and C are 10.925, 1.823 and 0.247 million USD, respectively. Totally we have 12.996 million US dollar to earn. When the end of ten year later, the profits we estimated them in market A, B and C are 193.216, 25.622 and 3.957 million USD, respectively. Totally we have 222.797 million US dollar to earn. The prediction with years we can refer the equation (5), by this equation we can easy calculate the profit among market A, B, C and ABC. As we think and know the most contribution will come from the market A, especial for China this country, it is a key state for WDIRC development if we want to stabilize the market on automatic rice cooking. In addition, the trend lines of profits and WDIRC sales are shown in Fig. 5. Obviously, the growth of profit with sales of WDIRC apparatus is linear; it can be easily predicted by Eq. (5).

Eq. 5 YearProfit=20M*Year-10M (r²=0.997)