2025-26

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

One of the big headlines of the year was Sinners obliterating the all-time nomination record with SIXTEEN, scoring a mention in literally every category it was eligible. But look closely and you'll discover that its competition also boasts unreasonably high nomination tallies: 13 for One Battle After Another, 9 apiece for Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value, 8 for Hamnet... I can remember a time when it'd be tough for just three films to eclipse 8 noms in the same year.

And while nomination tallies are ballooning by the year, the total number of films getting nominated is plummeting: Less than 40 this year. In the early 2000's you could see close to 60 films recognized.

The root of this troubling trend is clear -- The Academy is simply watching fewer movies. The expanded Best Picture field is to blame. Give a huge organization a smorgasbord of ten movies to watch, and that's all they'll watch. I personally would love for them to go back to five, which would force branch members to actively seek out non-Best-Picture contenders to flesh out their respective categories.

But enough ranting. Even though a half-dozen films are ridiculously over-represented in nominations, competition for wins has been tight, and has resulted in a few juicy races that will be keeping me in suspense right up until the envelope opens. Should be a fun show!

As always, take these predictions with a big grain of salt...

BEST PICTURE ✅

Will/Should win: It's been one victory after another for One Battle After Another, dominating the season with wins from nearly every industry guild and awards body. Even its semi-predictable loss of the SAG Ensemble prize two weeks ago should not deter anyone from predicting it to take the big prize.

Could win: The showbiz community's excitement around Sinners and its record-shattering 16 nominations is palpable. The chances of an upset are nonzero, but it's likely running a respectable runner-up.

Should've been here: Eva Victor's Sorry, Baby and Park Chan-wook's No Other Choice would be improvements to the lineup, but overall this year's Best Picture 10 reflects a nice variety of subject, form, budget, and tone. There's no Emilia-Pérez-level embarrassment we have to grimace through.

BEST DIRECTOR ✅

Will/Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson has had this a long time coming. So nice to have a season in which we can comfortably enjoy watching one of our greatest working directors finally receive his flowers.

Could win: By simple fact of its 16 nominations, Sinners needs to be considered the default spoiler possibility in every one of its categories, but Ryan Coolger will see the sun in Original Screenplay. PTA has this category locked.

Should've been here: Parasite notwithstanding (and that feels so long ago), the Academy has shown a baffling aversion to South Korean cinema. Park Chan-wook's visually dynamic, tonally slippery, and diabolically entertaining voice should have earned him nominations twice already for The Handmaiden and Decision to Leave. If the directors branch can't even throw him a crumb for an effort as terrific as No Other Choice, one has to question if he'll ever be recognized by this group.

BEST FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE ✅

Will win: The only acting winner to sweep the season has been Jessie Buckley's earthy, heart-wrenching evocation of grief and grace as The Bard's wife in Hamnet.

Could win: None. Buckley is a lock.

Should win: While Buckley will make a fine winner, the performance of the year belongs to Rose Byrne's spiralling mom in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

Should've been here: One Battle's Chase Infiniti, arguably 2025's biggest breakout star, scored every precursor nomination she needed but still came up just short. Her career is just beginning though. May this season be the first of many more red carpets in her future!

BEST MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE ✅

Will/Could win: What an absolute joy it is that for the first time in many a year, three of the acting categories are legitimately competitive heading into Oscar night. Timothée Chalamet planted a flag early with wins from the Critics Choice and Globes just a week apart at the start of the new year, but that's starting to feel awfully long ago. After losing the BAFTA to Oscar-ineligible Robert Aramayo, and then a week later losing the SAG Actor Award to Michael B. Jordan, one has to wonder if Timmy's youthful ambition on the campaign trail is working for him or against him? He might still have some good will for last year's Bob Dylan performance (which was probably running second to Adrien Brody), but some resurfaced Safdie bros. controversies aren't helping Marty Supreme's cause. Meanwhile, the eloquent Wagner Maura -- a soft-spoken marvel in The Secret Agent who won over a lot of hearts with is Globes speech and hasn't let up on the campaign since -- sits in the wings as a legitimate spoiler.

For now, I'm taking a gamble that the palpable Sinners momentum seems likely to manifest itself in a second above-the-line win to go along with Coogler's screenplay, and longtime Coogler collaborator Michael B. Jordan seems like the kind of actor at the apex of his career that the industry is eager to anoint.

Should win: This is the strongest overall lineup we've had for Best Actor in a while. Not a single mediocre performance in the bunch, and any one of them would make an excellent winner. That said, the distinguishing facet for me is that Timmy, Leo, Michael B., and even Wagner get a lot of mileage out of their inherent movie star charisma for their respective roles, whereas Ethan Hawke (as Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon) makes you forget you're watching Ethan Hawke. This stands as one of the crowning turns in his rich career.

Should've been here: It seems a crime that Emma Stone likely coasted to a nomination for Bugonia (not a knock on her impeccable performance, it's just that she didn't even campaign and still became a default nominee) while costar Jesse Plemmons -- who is arguably the more central character -- was edged out for what is his best work to date. And let's pour one out for Train Dreams' Joel Edgerton while we're at it. What does the poor guy gotta do to get that first nomination?

BEST FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ✅

Will/Could win: Chaos reigns! Not since 2007's four-way race between Amy Ryan, Ruby Dee, Cate Blanchett, and eventual winner Tilda Swinton have we seen Best Supporting Actress in such delicious flux. Amy Madigan has the Critics Choice and more recently the SAG Actor, but is working against genre bias and being the only nomination for Weapons (also the only actor in this contest not repping a Best Picture nominee). Teyana Taylor is in the Best Picture frontrunner and made a splashy, fashionable, emotive impression when she won the Globe, but that was two months ago and her character leaves less than a third of the way through One Battle. Wunmi Mosaku may have an ace in hole as the BAFTA winner -- which was the most recent televised show as of the opening of the voting window -- but like Taylor her most memorable work comes early on in Sinners, and then she has little dramatic material to work with for the remaining 2 hours.

The Sentimental Value ladies, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning (at last an Oscar nominee!), are probably least competitive for the win, but with so much vote-splitting permutations on the table, anything is possible! For now I'm nervously placing my chips on Madigan to become one of those very rare instances of a veteran character actor who wins an Oscar despite not being in a Best Picture nominee. In the expanded Best Picture era it's only happened once (Christopher Plummer for Beginners).

Should win: Teyana Taylor's fiery then reckless then rueful (but never apologetic) presence in the first act of One Battle After Another continues to reverberate long after her departure.

Should've been here: I really can't complain about this lineup, not only because all five ladies are giving swell performances, but also because all five nominated roles are actually SUPPORTING roles! Score one point against the perennial blight of category fraud! If forced to replace one of them I'm not sure who I would kick out, but I know the replacement I'd choose is Emily Watson giving marvellously attuned reactions in the background of Hamnet. I so loved seeing Jessie Buckley give her a generous extended shout-out while accepting the SAG Actor Award!

BEST MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE ✅

Will win: After landing a one-two punch of BAFTA+SAG less than a week apart, smack dab in the middle of the final voting window, Sean Penn is looking good to collect a third Oscar for his memorable villainous mannerisms in One Battle After Another.

Could win: Up until Penn's late-breaking coup, this was a truly open race: Elordi had Critics Choice, Skarsgard had the Globe, and Del Toro had the lion's share of regional critics prizes. Lindo may not have any precursor support, but he has been front and centre as an ambassador for Sinners' ensemble, getting to deliver high profile speeches at multiple televised awards shows. Trying to guess the runner-up to Penn is a fool's errand, but for now I'll lean Skarsgard.

Should win: Delroy Lindo's hilarious blues man patter in Sinners is by far my favourite nomination of the year, and since he's one of only two genuine supporting roles in the category (Skarsgard, Elordi, and Penn are ostensibly co-leads) he'd be my winner as well.

Should've been here: Little Jacobi Jupe is kinda miraculous in Hamnet. None of that weepy final act would have landed without what he brings to the middle chapter.

BEST CASTING ❌

Will win: It's the inaugural year for this brand new category, so we have no precedent to go on. Exciting! Note that "Casting" is not the same thing as a "Performance by an Ensemble", but will voters know (or even care) about the distinction between how casting directors choose actors versus how well those actors then execute their roles? Conventional wisdom suggests that Sinners, your recent SAG Ensemble winner, takes it.

Could win: One Battle After Another could pad its win tally on popularity alone, especially if voters are left confused about how to judge this new category.

Should win: Wagner Maura is a great quiet centre, but its the sprawling assemblage of bit parts and eccentric characters around him that breath life into The Secret Agent.

Should've been here: Weapons may not fully deliver on a narrative level, but its casting decisions are impeccable.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ✅

Will/Should win: One Battle After Another. Even if  the unimaginable happens and PTA somehow loses best Picture or Director to a Sinners surge, this remains one category where he's untouchable.

Could win: I don't see how any of the other four can win. It would be a shocker the likes of which we haven't seen since Precious snatched it from Up in the Air 15 years ago.

Should've been here: The writers branch used to give us some very cool lone screenplay nominees on the regular, and No Other Choice would have fit that profile perfectly. Sadly, such nominations are growing rare.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ✅

Will win: Sinners is on the precipice between winning and losing in many categories, but this is one Ryan Coogler can bank on.

Could win: Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value are still top tier Best Picture contenders, and should not be dismissed out of turn if genre bias rears its ugly head.

Should win: The two international entries are easily the class of this category. Sentimental Value would just barely win my vote over It Was Just an Accident.

Should've been here: Eva Victor's delicate examination of trauma in Sorry, Baby is understated in its prose yet daring in its nonlinear structure. After a generous shout-out from Julia Roberts at the Globes, I really thought she had a chance to squeeze in here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE ✅

Will win: KPop Demon Hunters is the viral sensation of the year that nobody saw coming. I confess that it's not really my cuppa tea, but still, any time a movie this culturally specific and unapologetically weird finds massive commercial and awards success is a good thing.

Could win: None. This is a lock.

Should win: Little Amelie fully commits to its toddler worldview, and with such splendorous colour choices!

Should've been here: Abstain.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE ✅

Will/Should win: With nine nominations including Best Picture, Sentimental Value is the reasonable favourite. And yet...

Could win: Brazil pulled off a significant upset just last year with I'm Still Here toppling nomination leader Emilia Pérez. Could The Secret Agent, with four noms of its own (including Best Picture) stage a similar coup?

Should've been here: See my diatribe in the Best Director write-up about the Academy's strange resistance to movies from South Korea. But in addition to No Other Choice, the tear-jerking Japanese drama Left-Handed Girl would also have made a lovely nominee.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE ❌

Will win: The Perfect Neighbor is the only one of the nominees to score nominations from every major precursor, indicating widespread support.

Could win: You can never feel 100% sure in this category, and after losing the PGA, DGA, and BAFTA one can only assume The Perfect Neighbor is indeed vulnerable. BAFTA winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin, based on its title alone, could siphon off votes.

Should win: All nominees are great, and tell stories deserving of attention. But the one that had me most engaged and enraged was The Alabama Solution, a vital expose on the prison industrial complex.

Should've been here: Apocalypse in the Tropics is a dense, meticulous companion piece to Petra Costa's previous nominated doc The Edge of Democracy.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY ❌

Will/Could win: The early frontrunner that emerged with regional critics groups was Sinners, but whispers about DPs not being enamoured with its sometimes illegible lighting raised questions about whether or not the critical success would translate to industry honours. Lo and behold, it lost the BSC, the BAFTA, and the ASC to One Battle After Another, which is what I'm tentatively predicting -- That rolling hills sequence alone makes a compelling argument for the win. But I won't be shocked or saddened if Sinners surges at the finish line, as it would make Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first female DP to ever win the Oscar, and that would be a pretty cool (if long overdue) moment to witness!

Could/Should win: Adolpho Veloso's work on Train Dreams captures the relationship between man and nature with exquisite tension.

Should've been here: Resurrection, for sheer variety of style and perfection of execution.

BEST EDITING ✅

Will/Should win: One Battle After Another is the most vigorously paced 3-hour movie I've ever seen. The opening half hour alone is practically montage, the shot selection within scenes is on point, and of course that climactic car pursuit should seal the deal.

Could win: A more obvious "car pursuit" option exists in the form of F1: The Movie, which could follow in the steps of Ford v. Ferrari by taking both Editing and Sound for its vroom vroom race sequences. I wouldn't count out Sinners either.

Should've been here: Leaving off No Other Choice is inexcusable. Clearly the editors branch thought they did have another choice, but that doesn't make it right.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN ✅

Will win: Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein is looking good to sweep the design categories. It certainly has the busiest, most lavish, and most obvious production design -- Whether or not you think that's a good thing is subjective, but it's always been catnip to Oscar voters.

Could win: Sinners is probably going to be the default runner-up in most craft categories, but it could actually manifest as a surprise win somewhere.

Should win: Jack Fisk's textured, lived-in realization of 1950's New York -- from its most luxurious hotel suite to its grimiest tenement -- as been one of Marty Supreme's more unsung virtues.

Should've been here: The Fantastic Four's playful retro-futuristic chic is more memorable than any of the nominees.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN ✅

Will/Should win: Frankenstein's fanciful riffs on Victorian couture (mainly Mia Goth's gowns) are sure to triumph here. Kate Hawley should have been nominated 11 years ago for Crimson Peak so I'll be pretty pleased.

Could win: This feels like a lock, but again, Sinners sits in spoiler position. The legendary Ruth E. Carter made history with this nomination by becoming the most nominated Black woman in Academy history!

Should've been here: Hedda is a venerable buffet of fashion.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE ✅

Will win: Ludwig Goransson's about to win his third Oscar in just eight years for Sinners, which is feat unto itself. But what's more impressive is how diametrically dissimilar those soundtracks are from each other. Without his name on the credits you would never guess the same guy did all three.

Could win: This prediction you can take all the way to the bank. But if I had to hypothesize a runner-up, I suspect Jonny Greenwood's propulsive orchestrations for surefire Best Picture winner One Battle After Another would have taken this.

Should win: I'm happy for Ludwig and all (and it's always a treat to see his luscious locks on camera), but I might slightly prefer composers who have some musical identity over anonymous jack-of-all-trades. The kookiness that Jerskin Fendrix brought to Bugonia (and Poor Things before that) is perfectly paired to Lanthimos' visual and tonal palette, and he would be my winner of this crop.

Should've been here: Daniel Lopatin's synth-heavy score was the anachronistic jolt Marty Supreme needed, melding 50s nostalgia with 80s sports movie with 21st-century nihilism.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG ✅

Will win: "Golden" is a bona fide global sensation, the likes of which we haven't seen since "Let It Go". This song is... EVERYWHERE! Even those who aren't the biggest fans of this reverse-engineered earworm (raises hand) can't deny that it would look kinda bad on the Academy if it lost. Kinda crazy that KPop Demon Hunters is about to go from Netflix oddity to a multi-Oscar-winning film.

Could/Should win: Music-heavy films with original songs that are also Best Picture nominees seldom lose this category. Historical precedent highlights how weird it would be to see the 16-nomination quasi-musical (and presumed Best Picture runner-up) Sinners lose one of the few categories where it doesn't have to compete with One Battle. You could make the fair argument that the reason "I Lied To You" has gotten so much attention is because of the how the sequence is choreographed and shot, rather than for the song itself, but it's still the strongest tune in this bunch.

Should've been here: Documentary end credit tracks don't usually yield good nominees (this is called the Diane Warren effect), but Sara Bareilles & Brandi Carlile's wistful "Salt Then Sour Then Sweet" from Come See Me in the Good Light would have made a lovely addition, and would have made a nominee of the film's late subject Andrea Gibson.

BEST SOUND ✅

Will win: F1: The Movie is drifting effortlessly into the Top Gun: Maverick slot of a technically proficient summer crowd-pleaser with lots of loud machines that go VROOM.

Could win: Music-heavy films that are also up for Best Picture usually make stiff competition in this category, and Sinners is right there. I must sound like a broken record, but I maintain it feels likely to convert its tremendous goodwill into an unexpected win in some category other than Screenplay and Score.

Should win: The soundscape of Sirat is the experience -- from pulsating night raves to the bleak, deathly howl of desert wind. I have mixed feelings on the film as a whole, but hands down it had the most engrossing aural character of any film last year. And how awesome is it to have an all-women sound team nominated for the first time ever!

Should've been here: The terrifying sonic hell of Alex Garland's Warfare should have landed here with ease, but it didn't even make the shortlist! That IED aftermath sequence alone could have justified the win. Was the early release date too big a barrier, or has the sound branch gone deaf? They passed over Garland's Civil War last year too -- What gives?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS ✅

Will/Should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash has had this sewn up for years in advance.

Could win: For decades it was a long held stat that Best Picture nominees simply don't lose this category to non Best Picture nominees, so we can't fully count out Sinners or F1. But if any franchise could prove a predictable exception to that trend, it's Avatar.

Should've been here: Justice for Krypto the Super Dog (of James Gunn's Superman)!

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING ✅

Will win: Mike Hill's full-body transformation of gentle giant Jacob Elordi into Frankenstein's Creature has felt like an on-paper winner since the project was announced. It still kinda baffles me that Hill wasn't even nominated for The Shape of Water, and that was the Best Picture winner! Better late than never, I suppose.

Could win: Once again, Sinners is where the smart money lies for anyone wagering on an upset in any craft categories.

Should win: The nomination for The Ugly Stepsister's queasy third act mutilations is inspired, but let's not overlook its fanciful fairy tale hairdos either.

Should've been here: As long as we're going all in on horror, wither 28 Years Later?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT ❌

Will win: The droll, tickling New Yorker short Retirement Plan feels like the most broadly appealing, even if its animation is the least impressive.

Could win: This may be the most wide open of the shorts categories, with logical arguments for any of the five. [Can-Con wins the day! The Girl Who Cried Pearls]

Should win: Butterfly is an exquisite, fluid, painterly telling of the true story of Olympic swimmer and Holocaust survivor Alfred Nakache.

Should've been here: The jaw-dropping (in every sense of the word) stop-motion animation of Playing God was robbed.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT ❌

Will win: A Friend of Dorothy -- with its twee sense of humour, liberal arts sensibilities, recognizable stars, and pronounced warmth -- feels like the most traditional winner.

Could/Should win: Two People Exchanging Saliva is the most fully realized short -- immaculately designed, shot, and performed -- and will earn a lot of cinephile votes.

And while it wouldn't quite win my vote, the riotous spoof short Jane Austen's Period Drama does stand out for being the only purely comedic contender, and is a tantalizing spoiler possibility. [An incredibly rare TIE! Two People -- yay! -- and The Singers]

Should've been here: Last year's BAFTA victor Rock, Paper, Scissors packs a powerful punch.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT ✅

Will win: All the Empty Rooms addresses its topic (⚠️ trigger warning: school shootings) with tremendous care and empathy, centring the families of victims rather than sensationalizing the tragedies they suffered. It will likely bring many viewers to tears.

Could win: Children No More, about protesters in Isreal memorializing child victims in Gaza, has the hottest button topic, but the doc itself is kinda thin. In an earlier era in which voters could check a ballot box based on a short's description alone, it could have won. New AMPAS "rules" that strongly urge (if not fully enforce) that voters should abstain from any category that they haven't seen all five nominees may cost it some autopilot votes.

Should/Could win: The Devil is Busy is the one that makes the best use of its format; In fact, to me it's almost the platonic ideal of a short documentary.

Should've been here: Last Days on Trinity Lake

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: 19/24

A modest improvement on last year by percentage, albeit with the added Best Casting category accounting for one of my five misses. Decent group of winners overall, with the best movie of the year comfortably coasting to half a dozen wins. Seeing PTA complete the Screenplay/Director/Picture hattrick after twelve unsuccessful nominations going all the way back to Boogie Nights was very validating!

Three years into to the Kapoor & Mullan run of the Oscars telecast, and it's clear what their guiding principle is for a successful show: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Stick to a simple formula that works, and don't bother making concessions for viewers who haven't bothered to see the nominated movies or who don't give a damn about film history. It's kinda remarkable how consistent the last three broadcasts have been in terms of their format and flow, but rather than become stale it's become comforting to know that this producing team can be relied upon to deliver a solid show that won't shoot itself in the foot by taking needless risks or capitulating to the "average" viewer.

Conan's second kick at the can further reinforces that he's the right fit for this hosting gig. He fully commits to every bit (his evil villain impersonation of Ted Sarandos had me in stitches) and leans into the silliness of it all, but still never comes off as anything less than genuinely enthused by the movies. Better than his opening monologue were the prerecorded sketches, including his Billy-Crystal-esque intrusions into scenes of several nominated films, done to the nines in Aunt Gladys makeup while fleeing a herd of hypnotized children in a hilarious send-up of the finale from Weapons. I was also tickled by his reimagining of Casablanca made for inattentive doom-scollers (alongside a game Sterling K. Brown), and that ad for a fake company that "preserves" classic films by chopping the frames into vertical phone-screen-ready slivers.

These gags did most of the heavy comedy lifting throughout the night, as unfortunately the presenter banter took a bit of a step down from recent years. Aside from the surprisingly effective pairing of Anne Hathaway and fashioner designer Anna Wintour ("Thank you, Emily" 🤣), none of the other presenters managed to generate much laughter. Even the highly anticipated Bridesmaids reunion leaned heavily on a bit that dragged on far too long, and wasn't even that funny to begin with.

Perhaps the only facet of the show that could be seen as a departure was the extended In Memoriam, which occupied an entire ten-minute segment. Given the number of industry giants who passed away in 2025 and early 2026, it seemed justified. Special tributes were payed to the Rob Reiner, Diane Keaton, and Robert Redford, interspersed with the montages of other artists who have left us. It was a classy and reassuring affirmation that the Oscars are primarily meant for people who care about movies, past and present.

Whether the reverent and good humoured tone of the Kapoor-Mullan era will survive as the Oscars eventually move to YouTube remains to be seen, but for now I hope they keep getting asked back. I feel secure that this team knows what they're doing.