2019-20

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

What to make of the shortened season? The Academy, aiming to regain relevance and immediacy after an embarrassing 2019 season that saw them propose -- and subsequently walk back -- a number of ridiculous changes, figured that holding the ceremony a whole month earlier would do the trick. “The week after the Superbowl!” the board of governors must have declared, with all the false confidence of a drunken fratboy setting foot upon thin ice a split second before falling through. “We’ll certainly be on people’s minds then! And with less times for sweepers to emerge, all the more suspense for our awards.”

Of course, in such a copycat league of Hollywood glad-handing, this shortsighted decision merely prompted every other award-bestowing body to tighten up their own schedules. The shortened viewing window (and even shorter voting period) has had the opposite effect of an Oscars telecast so premature that anything can happen, anyone can win. Instead, homogeneity and uniform patterns have ruled the last two-and-a-half months, especially in the acting categories which have once again achieved a level of mind-numbing consistency whereby all major precursors (Globes, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA) have gone to the same four performances. Look I admire and enjoy Renee Zellweger’s pathos-laden projection of Judy Garldand, Laura Dern’s feminist grandstanding, Joaquin Phoenix’s disturbing commitment, and Brad Pitt’s effortless movie star magnetism as much as the next guy, but these should not be ‘season-sweeping’ performances.

Except that now they are; Beneficiaries of this condensed period of consideration, in which the surgical scrutiny of time (even if only a few weeks’ worth) has been unable carve away the artifice and allow finer achievements, before and behind the camera, to be revealed. Would 1917 be the frontrunner for top prizes ahead of Parasite if everyone had the opportunity to watch both a second time (hopefully you don’t need me to tell you which one gets better on subsequent viewings). Would Jojo Rabbit -- a likely victor for screenwriting of all things, whose anachronistic satire ignites a grenade of silliness masked as profundity -- have been such a hot contender if given another month for its farce to fade? Would an unprecedented four films have hogged 41 of the nominations had individual branches been allowed the time to seek out and bask in fringe titles that truly exemplified their specific crafts? The distribution of nominations is dishearteningly trigonal this year -- either you have ten+, six, or a single nomination -- and the Oscar crop of 2020 is a thinner, less diverse one because of it.

But all is not lost for those of us who crave some unpredictability on this Holy night. The excitement over Parasite’s legitimate spoiler position in both Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay (especially after a year which saw the pendulum swing backwards in favour of Green Book) will keep me rapt. Best Animated Feature is more wide open than we’ve ever seen it, with four of the five films positioned for victory (more the consequence of a weak year than a short season, but I’ll take it). And Best Documentary, far and away the most uniformly excellent slate of nominees in any category this year, offers a delicious toss-up: It’s literally impossible for AMPAS to choose a winner that isn’t an outstanding doc.

Trying to predict this outcome is a fool's errand, but with God as my witness, I am that fool!

Best Picture ❌

Will win: 1917; With the Globe, PGA and DGA in its pocket, it feels pretty secure.

Could win: Passion votes for Parasite, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, and Jojo Rabbit make them the most likely challengers.

Should win: Parasite. Seriously, watch all nine movies for yourself; Its not even close.

Should be nominated: The Farewell, Hustlers, For Sama, Us, Apollo 11, The Lighthouse

Best Director ❌

Will win: Sam Mendes, 1917. This category has recently begun to lean towards whichever film seems to be the most technically difficult project, with less consideration for actual directorial decisions.

Could/Should win: Bong Joon-ho. I just don't understand how anyone can watch Parasite and not vote for him.

Should be nominated: Lulu Wang (The Farewell), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women)

Best Actor ✅

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (lock)

Should win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Should be nominated: Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Taron Egerton (Rocketman)

Best Actress ✅

Will win: Renée Zellweger, Judy (lock)

Should win: Scarlett Johannsson, Marriage Story

Should be nominated: Lupita Nyong'o (Us), Beanie Feldstein & Kaitlyn Deever (Booksmart)

Best Supporting Actor ✅

Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (lock)

Should win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Should be nominated: Song Kang-ho (Parasite), Joel Edgerton (The King)

Best Supporting Actress ✅

Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story (lock)

Should win: Florence Pugh, Little Women

Should be nominated: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)

Best Adapted Screenplay ✅

Will win: Jojo Rabbit

Could/Should win: Greta Gerwig's inspired disassembly of Little Women has its champions. The race feels close enough to give me a real rooting interest. The Irishman would also be a handsome winner. Alas, I feel Jojo’s anachronistic “quirk” will give it the edge. I suppose there are worse things than Taika Waititi having an Oscar.

Should be nominated: Hustlers, Avengers: Endgame, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Original Screenplay ❌

Will win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (a third Oscar for Quentin, but does he really need it? Especially when Parasite is RIGHT THERE!)

Could/Should win: Parasite is easily the cream of this fairly strong crop (only 1917's nomination feels out of place).

Should be nominated: Us

Best Animated Feature ✅

Will win: Toy Story 4

Could/Should win: I Lost My Body, easily the most original of the five, has a vocal cheering section. But then so too do Netflix's Klaus and Laika's Missing Link. This feels like a year in which votes will be splintered fairly evenly; Could be any of them...

Should be nominated: Two less films. In such a weak year for animation, it makes no sense to nominate five.

Best International Feature ✅

Will/Should win: Parasite (lock)

Should be nominated: Portrait of a Lady on Fire (not submitted), Atlantics

Best Documentary, Feature ✅

Will win: American Factory

Could/Should win: This is far and away the most uniformly excellent category of the year. As such, any of the five would make a rich and sensible winner. If forced to choose, I just can't forget the raw emotional potency of the deeply personal video diary For Sama.

Should be nominated: One Child Nation

Best Cinematography ✅

Will win: 1917 (lock); Everyone loves a gimmick.

Should win: While you won't hear me complain about Deakins winning his second Oscar, I'd have to give my honest vote to Lawrence Sher's queasy orange-vs-blue lighting and astute framing in Joker.

Should be nominated: Claire Mathon's stately compositions for Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Editing ✅

Will win: Ford v. Ferrari, because it is not uncommon for them to simply vote for “most” editing rather than the best. Not to imply that FvF's is in any way unworthy.

Could win: Parasite and Jojo Rabbit are the strongest Best Picture contenders up for this prize, often a boon.

Should win:Thelma Schoonmaker's unwavering yet invisible control of pace and performance in The Irishman make it clear that if any editor should have a fourth Oscar for their career, it's her.

Should be nominated: Apollo 11 (I get why the doc branch turned their nose up at it, but what's the editing branch's excuse?), Hustlers

Best Production Design ✅

Will win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Could/Should win: While Parasite is the sexy pick for many cinephiles (and don't get me wrong, it'd make a swell winner), I'm rooting for Dennis Gassner's herculean planning and construction on 1917.

Should be nominated: Dumbo, Knives Out

Best Costume Design ✅

Will/Should win: Little Women; Love Durran's choices with colour and texture (and hats!)

Could win: Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood is a design spectacle that could easily convert its assumed Production Design victory into a win here too. But beware: Films set in the 60s or 70s NEVER win this category. First time for everything?...

Should be nominated: Dolemite is My Name (seriously, wtf costume branch?), Hustlers, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Original Score ✅

Will/Should win: Joker's gloomy cello dirges have steamrolled through the season, but when I stop to think about it I realize that it's actually a rather atypical winner in this category, which usually favours either bombastic loudness or tinkly quaintness. This is an inspired deviation from the norm.

Could win: Thomas Newman's overdue narrative (and he is indeed way overdue) might have taken hold had the studio campaigned harder for him. But I hafta say his stuff in 1917 just isn't all that special. Still, an Oscar's an Oscar, and I'll cheer euphorically should he pull off the upset.

Should be nominated: I Lost My Body, Us

Best Original Song ✅

Will win: “I'm Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman (lock-ish); Small consolation for a film that was positioned to do much better on nomination day than it ultimately did.

Could win: We've seen some out-of-left-field winners before. I wouldn't count out any of them.

Should win: The very best songs of the year were not nominated, leaving Cynthia Erivo's haunting, soulful “Stand Up” from Harriet as the worthiest option.

Should be nominated: “Glasgow” from Wild Rose, “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (not submitted)

Best Sound Mixing ✅

Will win: 1917

Could/Should win: Ford v. Ferrari; Once again the sound categories have boiled down to a coin flip between two loud Best Picture nominees. I often guess these coin flips wrong, so make of that what you will. And while it has zero shot at winning, I adore the “random” nomination for Ad Astra here, which isn't really all that random; Its soundscape is amazing!

Should be nominated: Rocketman

Best Sound Editing ❌

Will win: 1917

Could/Should win: Ford v. Ferrari. I suppose you can always predict 1917 to win one and FvF to win the other, but you still risk getting both wrong in the unlikely event of a split.

Should be nominated: The Lighthouse, Apollo 11

Best Visual Effects ✅

Will win: 1917; They'll opt for prestige over blockbusters in this category any time you give them that choice. But it's also a respectable pick on the merit of its effects alone; Deftly employed to compliment the film's overall illusion.

Could win: The Irishman has the “most innovative” vfx (though not all agree they're successful), while The Lion King has "most" vfx in its favour (though the uncanny valley vibe is off-putting).

Should win: Star Wars IX; This franchise has long understood the right balance between practical and CG fx. It's a shame the sequel trilogy is going to end its run unrewarded in this field.

Should be nominated: Alita: Battle Angel, Frozen II

Best Makeup and Hair Styling ✅

Will win: Bombshell (lock-ish)

Could win: Hard to imagine anything defeating Bombshell's uncanny transformations, but the movie is not well liked. A surprise victory for Joker could be in the cards...

Should win: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil for its wonderfully imaginative dark fairy designs and fantasy glamour

Should be nominated: Rocketman

Best Animated Short ✅

Will win: Hair Love; Overt sentiment usually rules the day in this category.

Could win: Kitbull appeals on all the same levels as Hair Love.

Should win: Daughter's innovative stop-motion/hand-held aesthetic is striking, and delivers an emotional wallop.

Should be nominated: Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days

Best Live-Action Short ✅

Will win: The Neighbors' Window? In a year without a clear frontrunner, it's never foolish to default to the only English language nominee.

Could win: Any of them, as they're all quite good, but my 2nd guess would be Brotherhood.

Should win: A Sister, whose condensed tension (plus the fully formed mini-performance at its centre) is exactly the kind of thing you want out of a short. That said, Brotherhood would make a fine winner.

Should be nominated: Sometimes I Think About Dying

Best Documentary, Short Subject ✅

Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl) has a title that practically begs for votes, but...

Could/Should win: Anyone who actually watches their screener will discover that it's far less substantial or moving than In the Absence.

Should be nominated: The Nightcrawlers, Fire in Paradise, After Maria

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: 20/24

A respectable showing (my best in 11 years!), but the most rewarding thing about last night's Oscars were the few categories I got wrong, with Parasite scoring a hat-trick in top three awards of Picture, Director, and Screenplay over presumed frontrunner 1917, becoming the first non-English language film to win Hollywood's top prize. One of the most satisfying awards seasons I've enjoyed in a good long while.