2020-21

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

And so we arrive at the end of what has surely been the longest, most lugubrious awards season we've had since before 2003, back when April ceremonies were the norm.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic – on all aspects of life of course, not just the movies – cannot be overstated. Not only has the void left by the absence of the true cinematic experience allowed a crop of atypically niche titles to dominate the nomination landscape (not necessarily a bad thing), but the protracted eligibility period has favoured some very late-breaking contenders in certain categories, while other categories with frontrunners established since September have only seemed to calcify even more. It simultaneously speaks to both recency bias and voter apathy, neither of which are to be condoned for any awards season. But thankfully we still have some precious categories that are truly anyone's race, and the possibility of shockers (some potentially delightful, some potentially appalling) loom large.

Let's get right into it...

BEST PICTURE: ✅

Will win: Nomadland is the clear frontrunner, having not missed a beat on the awards circuit since it took the TIFF People's Choice over six month ago.

Could win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 is generally palatable, liberal-minded entertainment which ticks a lot of boxes and has garnered broad industry support.

Should win: The Father topped my personal 'Best of 2020' list, and when you see it for yourself you'll understand why. It is superb.

Should be nominated: It remains to be seen whether international cinema contending for this top prize becomes a regular occurrence, or whether the recent successes for Parasite and Roma were just a blip. In any case, Quo Vadis, Aida? is the title that should have represented here, if only it had found distribution earlier.

BEST DIRECTOR: ✅

Will/Should win: Chloé Zhao has been an unprecedented sweeper, and is a lock to become the first woman of colour to win this award. Let there be many more.

Could win: None. Zhao is a lock. I can only hypothesize Fincher is running a distant, negligible second due to career respect.

Should be nominated: Garrett Bradley's thoughtful achronological storytelling decisions make Time one of the most moving documentaries I've seen in a while, and ought to be recognized outside that one category.

BEST ACTRESS: ❌

Will win: Ask any Oscar-watcher and they'll tell you this is the marquee category of the night. Never before have we seen a race that was so truly up in the air. You could roll a die; One side for each nominee, and the sixth side representing the possibility of a tie (no joke, it's that wide open). I'm tentatively going with SAG winner Viola Davis becoming only the second Black Best Actress winner ever, and the first Black woman to win two Oscars, but...

Could win: ... it could just as easily be BAFTA winner Frances McDormand, Critics Choice winner Carey Mulligan, Globe winner Andra Day (in a very Oscar-friendly role as Billie Holiday), or Venice Film Festival winner Vanessa Kirby.

Should win: My vote would go to Carey Mulligan's crafty, film-carrying work in Promising Young Woman. Hard to believe it's taken her 11 years to nab her second nomination after An Education.

Should be nominated: Sidney Flanigan has one of the most affecting scenes of the year in Never Rarely Sometimes Always, while Jasna Duricic delivers a masterclass in processing with her eyes in Quo Vadis, Aida?

BEST ACTOR: ❌

Will win: Chadwick Boseman's posthumous win feels pretty locked up at this point, gilding the legacy of a tremendous talent who left us way too soon.

Could/Should win: At 83 years young, Anthony Hopkins has become the oldest Best Actor nominee of all time, and he gives arguably the most magnificent performance of his long career in The Father. The optics of the Academy passing over a late Black Actor for an old White guy who's already won before might incite some "burn it down" outrage if it were to happen (it could), but in all honesty it would be the superior choice.

Should be nominated: Delroy Lindo felt like a surefire nominee earlier in the year for his Shakespearean ire in Da 5 Bloods. This is the one snub that stings the most.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ✅

Will/Should win: Yuh-jung Youn will make a fine recipient on behalf of the lovely Minari.

Could/Should win: But I'm torn as too whether I'm rooting for her or for the brave, raunchy improv comic transcendence of Maria Bakalova.

Should be nominated: Ye-ri Han has an underwritten character in Minari, to whom she nevertheless brings depth and authenticity. It's kind of a shame that her costars Youn, Steven Yeun, and little Alan Kim have consumed all the awards attention.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: ✅

Will win: Daniel Kaluuya, hilariously billed as "supporting" for his title role as the Black Messiah Fred Hampton, is the lockiest lock of the night. This is the third straight year a co-leading actor has coasted to a win in this category, and it needs to stop.

Could win: None, but I suspect Sacha Baron Cohen is a distant runner-up.

Should win: Paul Raci delivers a quiet gut punch in Sound of Metal. His is the finest performance of 2020 in any category.

Should be nominated: Apart from Raci, the category is dominated by lead roles, but any of the pavement-pounding character actors who did excellent work this year – Arliss Howard, Colman Domingo, Michael Stuhlbarg, Clarke Peters, just to name a few – would have made more suitable nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: ✅

Will win: Emerald Fennell's audacious, divisive, and much-discussed Promising Young Woman looks good to triumph here...

Could win: ... but wager against Aaron Sorkin at your own peril. The Trial of the Chicago 7 has broader appeal and stronger Best Picture odds to bolster it.

Should win: Sound of Metal is a perfectly crafted script in every regard, but is probably to low-key to pull off an upset.

Should be nominated: David Fincher's late father Jack couldn't muster a posthumous nomination for Mank, and that must sting. I'd also have loved to see the Andy Siara's clever re-imagining of time loop tropes from Palm Springs.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: ❌

Will win: Tough coin-toss in this category. When in doubt, go with the Best Picture frontrunner, so Nomadland is a logical pick...

Could/Should win: ... but The Father is so clearly deserving here. I'm not brave enough to predict my preference, but this will be my biggest rooting interest of the night.

Should be nominated: Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies' News of the World is a sturdy Western that operates in familiar beats but also finds prescient topicality in a nation divided by geography and attitudes.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: ✅

Will win: Soul. This will make the brilliant Pete Docter the first three-time champion in this category.

Could/Should win: It's a long shot, but Cartoon Saloon's Wolfwalkers is such a wonderful movie. As good as Soul is, Pixar doesn't need another Oscar. Spread the wealth, Academy!

Should be nominated: Abstain. The fact that the other three nominees are nothing special is a discouraging sign, so I haven't seen any other animated films from 2020 beyond this category.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: ✅

Will win: Another Round, bringing Thomas Vinterberg and Mads Mikkelson the moment of glory they should have had seven years ago for The Hunt.

Could/Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida? is no picnic to watch, but it leaves an impact that is hard to shake.

Should be nominated: Guatemala's La Llorona seemed poised, but unfortunately that never panned out.

BEST DOCUMENTARY, FEATURE: ✅

Will win: My Octopus Teacher is the (virtual) crowd favourite. It's rare to find an Oscar-nominated doc you can sit your kids down in front of and watch as a whole family.

Could/Should win: Any of them would be a superior option though, particularly Time or Collective.

Should be nominated: Welcome to Chechnya and Dick Johnson is Dead.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: ❌

Will win: Nomadland for its vast golden-hour exteriors.

Could win: Mank because for some voters, black-and-white = good, even when it doesn't.

Should win: What Sean Bobbitt brings to the look of Judas and Black Messiah is incalculable. So happy to see this man finally nominated after being snubbed seven years ago for 12 Years a Slave.

Should be nominated: Lachlan Milne derives some lush and painterly frames in Minari, but if you're feeling adventurous in how you define "cinematography", then you'd have to give the virtual lighting of Soul a fair look.

BEST EDITING: ❌

Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 feels like the most typical winner...

Could win: ... but flip a coin between it and Sound of Metal, which managed to win major precursors despite being very subtle work.

Should win: Yorgos Lamprinos' sleight of hand in The Father clearly deserves this, but may go over most voters' heads.

Should be nominated: The spot-on comedic rhythms that Matthew Friedman and Andrew Dickler find in Palm Springs would have made an inspired choice. They earned a very satisfying win from their industry guild the American Cinema Editors.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: ✅

Will/Should win: Mank is a lock for its Old Hollywood recreations.

Could win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, but only in theory. Nothing is taking this one from Mank.

Should be nominated: Wolfwalkers is a feat of hand-drawn design within only 2 dimensions. Among more tactile work, the slick contemporary set dressings of Promising Young Woman add much to its flare and visual storytelling.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: ✅

Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom could bring 89-year-old Ann Roth her second Oscar.

Could/Should win: Alexandra Byrne's whimsical yet faithfully researched fashions in Emma ought to be walking down the aisle with this trophy.

Should be nominated: Erin Benach's outfits in Birds of Prey bring a freshness and imagination that the overall movie sorely lacks. Those police tape tassels!

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: ✅

Will/Should win: The absence of most CG-heavy blockbusters in 2020 has paved the way for Tenet to triumph for its exhilarating execution of practical pyrotechnics and stunt work (which is the sort of thing that really should be honoured more frequently in this category).

Could win: I suppose The Midnight Sky has its moments, but that movie is a snooze.

Should be nominated: The creative work done in Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, and Mank would have made much more interesting nominees. Instead we got the gaudy, weightless CGI of Mulan and The One and Only Ivan. That's the Disney bloc for ya.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR: ✅

Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, on account of being the most widely seen of the nominees.

Could/SHOULD HANDS-DOWN WIN: Anyone who sees even a 1-minute clip of Pinocchio is going to vote for it. How could you not? The work on the title character alone is one of the most astonishing prosthetics jobs you'll ever see.

Should be nominated: Here's the one category I would have endorsed a nomination for Mulan.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: ✅

Will win: Soul. Another lock.

Could/Should win: Although I can't help but feel a spoiler by way of Mank or Minari is possible. The latter's wavering, delicate moods would get my vote.

Should be nominated: Tamar-kali's unique instrumentation adds a lot to the quasi-trippy experience of Shirley, while Ludwig Goransson's bombastic music was the only thing that sounded good in Tenet.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: ❌

Will win: "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami, as an opportunity for voters to hand a consolation prize to Leslie Odom Jr. (who's not winning Best Supporting Actor).

Could win: Diane Warren is once again hard on the campaign trail for her ballad "Io si" from The Life Ahead. Will she finally win?

Should win: The only song this year that has any rightful claim to this award is the sensational "Husavik".

Should be nominated: Keegan DeWitt's "Feels Like Home" turned out to be a charming interlude in the YA drama All Together Now.

[Did win]: "Fight For You" from Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SOUND: ✅

Will win: Sound of Metal, by virtue of the word "sound" in its title, and the fact that its sound design is so front-and-centre.

Could win: In a past year with two Sound categories (Mixing and Editing), I could see Greyhound taking one.

Should win: I hate to be snippy about one of my favourite movies of the year, but Sound of Metal is not winning this because it has the best sound design; It's winning because it has the most obvious sound design. To my ears, the most immersive, creative, and elaborate sound construction of the year goes to Ren Klyce's sonic world-building in Soul.

Should be nominated: Had it been submitted for Academy consideration, The Vast of Night would have been a swell choice here. Among eligible titles though, Leslie Shatz's artful work in Shirley deserves a listen.

Oh no! It's time for those damn Shorts! Here's an unnerving pattern; Each of the three Short categories has one nominee about gun violence, all being promoted heavily by Netflix, and all with a very real chance of winning their respective categories (*gulp*).

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: ✅

Will win: The mournful/upsetting If Anything Happens I Love You seems to be the odds-on favourite...

Could win: ... but I don't feel good about it. Burrow is exactly the kind of adorable digestive that almost always wins, or perhaps the mundane observational humour of Yes-People. I smell an upset.

Should win: Opera is on a whole other wavelength of brilliance. Likewise, the mesmerizing, surreal cubism of Genius Loci would be an intriguing victor.

Should be nominated: The black-sand animation of Traces is mighty impressive work.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: ✅

Will win: With the might of Netflix and easy-to-spot "Importance" behind it, Two Distant Strangers could rule the night, but...

Could win: ... for every voter who considers it a cleverly packaged BLM message movie, someone else might consider it distasteful and severely misjudged in tone. Perhaps the more modest sentimentality of Feeling Through (starring an actual deaf-blind actor) can pull off a victory.

Should win: Undecided. The Present builds very well but the ending is underwhelming. White Eye has a strong concept and story but suffers from its needless one-shot gimmick.

Should be nominated: Abstain.

BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECTS: ❌

Will win: The charming Kris Bowers autobio A Concerto is a Conversation is brisk and uplifting; In other words, the exact opposite of every other nominee in this category.

Could/Should win: Here's one of those aforementioned gun violence shorts that I do believe is the best film in its category: A Love Song for Latasha is a compassionate, expressionistic retrospective that pays respect to the slain Latasha Harlins and her loved ones (30 years after the fact) without ever leaning on gross shock factor. It resonates mightily.

Should be nominated: Poor one out for Speed Cubers, and if you haven't seen it yet hop on Netflix right now. It is just 40 minutes of pure goodness and joy emanating from your screen, and its the short we all need right now!

[Did win]: Colette

Post-Oscar Analysis

Final score: 16/23, as I ended up on the losing side of most coin-flip categories.

Kudos to Steven Soderbergh for managing to put together this event in the first place. It looked like a cozy and elegant little awards dinner for all in attendance.

That said, it was awfully dull television, largely devoid of energy or humour, and not even film clips?!?

The exploitative gamble to re-order the final awards of the night -- cravenly positioning a potential Best Actor for the late Chadwick Boseman as the last trophy bestowed -- backfired catastrophically when the winner was revealed to be absentee Anthony Hopkins, after which the broadcast unceremoniously cut to black. Let that be a lesson to all future Oscar producers; ALWAYS do Best Picture last (worst case scenario is the presenter reads the wrong title, but what are the chances of that, right?)