2014-15

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

The 87th Academy Awards are sporting a number of tight contests, and for a second year in a row, Best Picture is thankfully among them. Should be exciting!

I'm riding high after going 19/24 in the past two Oscar ceremonies, but with the number of close calls in this year's derby, that number could take a tumble. If you want a leg up in your Oscar pool, glean from my predictions what you will. I can't guarantee accuracy in many categories, but I can at least help you narrow it down to some likely possibilities...

BEST PICTURE ✅

Will win: Birdman

Neck-in-neck with: Boyhood

Dark horses: The Imitation Game, American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: Whiplash

Should be nominated: Foxcatcher

BEST DIRECTOR ✅

Will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

Neck-in-neck with: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Should be nominated: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

BEST ACTRESS ✅

Lock to win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Should win: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Should be nominated: Keira Knightley, Begin Again

BEST ACTOR ✅

Will win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Might be: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Dark horse: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Should be nominated: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ✅

Lock to win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Should be nominated: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ✅

Lock to win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Should win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Should be nominated: Toby Kebbell, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ❌

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Neck-in-neck with: Birdman, Boyhood

Should win: Foxcatcher

Should be nominated: Whiplash

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ✅

Will win: The Imitation Game

Might be: Whiplash

Dark horse: The Theory of Everything

Should win: Whiplash

Should be nominated: Wild

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE ❌

Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Might be: Big Hero 6

Dark horse: The Boxtrolls

Should win: Song of the Sea

Should be nominated: The LEGO Movie

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM ✅

Will win: Ida

Might be: Wild Tales, Leviathan

Dark horse: Timbuktu

Should win: Ida

Should be nominated: Force Majeure

BEST DOCUMENTARY ✅

Lock to win: Citizenfour

Should win: Virunga

Should be nominated: The Overnighters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY ✅

Lock to win: Birdman

Should win: Birdman

Should be nominated: Nightcrawler

BEST FILM EDITING ❌

Will win: Boyhood

Neck-in-neck with: Whiplash

Dark horse: American Sniper

Should win: Whiplash

Should be nominated: Wild

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN ✅

Lock to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should be nominated: Snowpiercer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN ✅

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark horse: Into the Woods

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should be nominated: The Boxtrolls

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE ❌

Will win: The Theory of Everything

Neck-in-neck with: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dark horses: Interstellar, The Imitation Game

Should win: Interstellar

Should be nominated: Gone Girl

BEST ORIGINAL SONG ✅

Will win: "Glory" from Selma

Might be: "Everything Is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie

Dark horse: "Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

Should win: "Glory" from Selma

Should be nominated: "A Step You Can't Take Back" from Begin Again

BEST SOUND MIXING (toughest category of the year) ❌

Will win: Birdman

Neck-in-neck with: American Sniper, Whiplash

Dark horses: Interstellar, Unbroken

Should win: Whiplash

Should be nominated: Fury

BEST SOUND EDITING ✅

Will win: American Sniper

Might be: Birdman

Dark horses: Interstellar, Unbroken

Should win: American Sniper

Should be nominated: Godzilla

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS ✅

Will win: Interstellar

Might be: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy

Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Should be nominated: Godzilla

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (another tough one) ✅

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Neck-in-neck with: Guardians of the Galaxy, Foxcatcher

Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Should be nominated: The Theory of Everything

BEST ANIMATED SHORT ✅

Will win: Feast

Neck-in-neck with: The Dam Keeper

Dark horse: Me and My Moulton

Should win: The Dam Keeper

Should be nominated: Duet

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT ✅

Will win: The Phone Call

Neck-in-neck with: Boogaloo & Graham

Dark horse: Butter Lamp

Should win: Butter Lamp

Should be nominated: SLR

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT ❌

Will win: Joanna

Neck-in-neck with: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should win: Joanna

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: 18/24, par for the course. Birdman is great (my #3 of the year), but it really sucks that Inarritu won 3, while Linklater and Anderson went 0/3, and even Keaton could win alongside the film.

In more unpleasant news, the notorious Oscar biopic streak continues. Not since 1997 have all four winning actors won for playing fictional characters. But Whiplash going 3/5 makes me crazy happy. Awards for editing and sound are by far the most satisfying highlights of the night.

The Host, The Ratings, and the Real Problem

Every time the host is announced for the upcoming Oscars several months in advance, I voice a quick opinion of the selection and what I hope it means for the show. But this past year, when word came that three-peat producers Craig Zadan and Neil Meron had chosen ubiquitous awards show emcee Neil Patrick Harris, I just couldn't be bothered. I've seen NPH absolutely crush it on the Tonys multiple times, 'cause the dude's got mad talent, but nothing about this decision excited me.

For years it had been thinly veiled, at best, how desperately Harris wanted to break away from the Emmy/Tony gigs and take on Hollywood's holy night. He even got to do a random musical intro at the beginning of Adam Shankman's disastrous Oscar telecast in 2010. It stuck out like the sorest of many sore thumbs from that show, making it clear that despite his song-and-dance aptitude, he just isn't enough of a movie personality to fit in with this particular west coast crowd.

To say my anticipation for his performance on Sunday night was low would be an understatement, and even with those low expectations, he still managed to disappoint. Many TV critics and media reporters are pointing to the telecast ratings – the lowest yet in the expanded Best Picture era – and squawking, "Look what you did, Neil!", but frankly, it amazes me that so many journos who have been doing this for so long can be so myopic about it.

Anyone who follows the Academy Awards year-to-year should know that it's the nominated movies, not the host, that dictates how high the ratings will be. Shankman's horrendous 2010 program had the highest ratings in a decade, but not because the males-age-18-to-35 demographic was itching to see Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin struggle for three-and-a-half hours; It was because Avatar, the freshly crowned box office champ of all time, was in the running for Best Picture.

This year's ratings were dismal, but not because Harris bombed. He'd have bombed regardless of how many people were watching. Seven of eight Best Picture nominees barely grossed $300M combined. You can't blame Harris for lack of viewership. All you can assess is how well the show operated under his hosting.

He started off well enough with a quick quip about celebrating "Hollywood's best and whitest – er, brightest," before launching into what he does best; Musical pastiche. He handled his opening song as capably as he could, and if it felt at all underwhelming it's only because he's pulled off so many similar (and more impressive) production numbers so many times in the past. Objectively, there's little to fault with his first ten minutes on the Dolby stage.

But then the wheels fell off, and here's where there's more than enough blame to go around. Harris is not a natural comedian, but not even Johnny Carson could have make these jokes work. The material written for Harris was just brutal, like the writers were giving someone who can't swim a life preserver made of lead. And the best he could muster after every failed punchline was an insincere, nervous laughter that exacerbated the awkwardness. Even Billy Crystal never batted 100%, but he could rebound from a flat one-liner with ease.

Is it any wonder that he would feel the need to ad lib whatever pun popped into his head, rather than stumble though whatever unfunny doggerel was on the teleprompter. His "balls" pun, in reference to Best Documentary Short winner Dana Perry's unusual dress, may have received an extended groan from the crowd, but was a poorly judged dig at a woman who had just finished talking about her son who had committed suicide.

He was no less cumbersome when interacting with the audience face-to-face while trying to emulate Ellen's cozy party-host shtick, putting poor stars with saintly patience (Octavia Spencer, David Oyelowo, Robert freakin' Duvall) on the spot for limp comic bits. Again, had he been given something actually funny to say or do with them, these folks may have had a blast.

There's also a ton of annual kvetching over how long the show runs, not that you could blame Harris for that either. The onus is on the producers to keep things tight and under the wire. But with Zadan and Meron insistently shoehorning in whatever superfluous musical tributes they can (to say nothing of that tedious running gag around Neil's briefcase of predictions), of course it's going to run long. Stay tuned in 2016 when they pay musical tribute to the 3rd year anniversary of their first Oscar telecast from 2013!

Unless, that is, the Academy opts for a new producing team, which is highly recommended at this point. Look, I adore musical numbers, and even I'm saying that it's gotten out of hand. Time for these two to go do the Tonys, which they would absolutely rock, but the last three years they've done a poor job of showcasing what the Oscars are all about: The movies of that year. They can't even be bothered to use 5-second clips to highlight the work of the nominees in the crafts categories, or even in the normally touching 'In Memoriam' segment. Where are the "moving pictures" that their opening number so nostalgically praised?

The single image that seems to have come to represent the lameness of the telecast is that of NPH standing alone on stage in nothing more than his tighty-whities; A shameful debasement of the prestigious shimmer the Academy tries so desperately to uphold. Harris' half-naked bod is a convenient label to slap on the show's failure, but the irony that seems to be lost on everyone is that this moment was actually the one legitimately funny gag he got to perform all evening; A droll send-up of Best Picture nominee (and eventual winner) Birdman, punctuated with a clever cameo by Whiplash's Miles Teller.

It worked because it both celebrated and ribbed a pair of films that represent the best of what the film industry can achieve TODAY. It didn't waste time to laud a 50 year old classic that people already know and love (I know fans went Gaga for it, but was it necessary?). It didn't pointedly embarrass any of the talent in the room. It didn't come out of a third-grader's joke book. It was just an homage to two movies – two really good movies – that knew how to have harmless fun with both of them at the same time.

You want to "fix" the Oscars, then choose a creative team that understands what people who actually care about the Oscars want to see. Sure, the ratings will still suck unless the Academy feels like nominating The Hunger Games for Best Picture, but you just might create something that those who do tune in will actually enjoy watching.