2022-23

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

With the worst of COVID now in society's rear view, one can't help but wonder why the Academy stuck with an event date this late into the new calendar year instead of reverting back to a February ceremony. An awards season that drags on this long is a test even for the most patient of us. But on the bright side, for the first time since I've been Oscar-watching the show coincides with the start of my March Break -- I can watch the whole thing and sleep in the next day (a luxury I've never enjoyed before)!

While ratings for the telecast are unlikely to rebound in any significant way, the quality of the show has nowhere to go but up from last year's rancid production. Having all categories back on the live broadcast is a boon, but one we should never have needed to wish for. As for the host, Jimmy Kimmel's previous two hosting gigs in 2017 and 2018 were unremarkable but palatable, which might be just what the doctor ordered this year. If we can make it through the evening without hearing some cruel knife-turn in the gut of an excellent movie that "no one saw", I'll take that as a win. God knows last year was supersaturated with ignorant, anti-cinema sentiment.

Also cause for optimism is the fact that many categories are true neck-in-neck races. I certainly won't manage to repeat my 22/23 showing from last year, and that's a good thing; I'll take a low score over mind-numbing predictability any day.

So let's get into it! Take all predictions with a big cube of salt; Locks are few and far between...

BEST PICTURE ✅

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could win: Insiders believe there's a slim possibility of Top Gun zooming out of the blue, in what would be a major upset. I would have thought The Banshees of Inisherin or The Fabelmans stood a fighting chance before EEAAO took the PGA / DGA / SAG trifecta. Or maybe the real dark horse is BAFTA juggernaut All Quiet on the Western Front?

Should win: While the sheer audacity and imagination of EEAAO will make for a wild winner worth cheering for, the formal precision and sticky themes of TÁR leave a more lasting impression, with more and more contradictions and complexities revealing themselves with each viewing.

Should've been here: Aftersun is a miraculous little movie that lingers with you far longer than you think it will while watching it. It was always too small to seriously compete for mainstream awards, but it keeps playing in my mind like a worn-out VHS on loop. Seek it out!

BEST DIRECTOR ✅

Will win: The Daniels (Kwan & Scheinert) have won the industry over for the unbridled gusto and creative risk-taking they brought to EEAAO.

Could win: Steven Spielberg's deeply personal autofiction The Fabelmans has little chance to win anywhere else. He may never touch the four-Oscar record for Best Director held by John Ford (who actually appears in The Fabelmans' delightful epilogue), but does it not feel right that a legend of Spielberg's stature should have a third Oscar?

Should win: There's a precision to Todd Field's orchestration of several subtle elements in TÁR that you have to admire. Despite AMPAS' preference for The Daniels' in-your-face direction, Field is the nominee who's actually doing everything, everywhere, all at once.

Should've been here: Charlotte Wells earned a healthy haul of 'debut feature' prizes this season for Aftersun, but why stop there?

BEST ACTRESS ❌

Will/Should win: This is a true coin flip. Cate Blanchett is in the 'undeniable' phase of her career, poised to collect her third Oscar over four nominees who have never won. Life's not fair, but Lydia Tár doesn't care!

Could/Should win: Michelle Yeoh's legendary career and the remarkable range of her multiverse performance make a compelling narrative. After her recent SAG triumph, she and Blanchett are now neck-in-neck! I have a hard time deciding which performance I think is better, but I'm definitely rooting for Yeoh.

Should've been here: Danielle Deadwyler and her possessed eyelids in Till. Some would have you believe her snub is due to Andrea Riseborough's controversial friends-in-high-places campaign, but the likely cause is actually more disheartening; The Academy just didn't want to watch this movie 😟.

BEST ACTOR ❌

Will win: Austin Butler, with the unfair advantage of a baity biopic role in Elvis, which is the Academy's most long-standing genre fetish. For the record, he's quite good in the film, but the world is full of Elvis impersonators.

Could win: Brendan Fraser's comeback narrative for The Whale stalled for a while after all those festival ovations back in the fall, but he has re-surged with a stirring victory speech at SAG. Like Best Actress, another coin-flip category!

Should win: Paul Mescal works wonders in Aftersun, projecting a man who is unknowable to his daughter while evoking details for our eyes only, often through body language alone.

Should've been here: Gabriel Labelle provides a naturalistic focal point to The Fabelman's family portrait, splicing disparate vignettes into a consistent emotional throughline.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ❌

Will/Could win: Chaos reigns! Angela Bassett was crowned as the early frontrunner after the Globes and Critics Choice, but that's starting to feel like an awfully long time ago. More recently, Kerry Condon took the BAFTA for The Banshees of Inisherin -- a picture that AMPAS clearly likes more than Bassett's Marvel vehicle -- and Jamie Lee Curtis surprised at SAG. I'm predicting Condon on nothing more than the highly suppository logic that Bassett and Curtis may be splitting the sentimental 'career honours' vote.

Should win: Stephanie Hsu was already painting a believably messy portrait as a disconnected 1st-gen daughter Joy Wang in EEAAO, but then she struts in and positively steals the show as antagonist Jobu Tupaki. What a versatile, star-making turn this is!

Should've been here: Nina Hoss (TÁR) conveys as much with a terse reactionary glance as Blanchett does with her full body and voice.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ✅

Will/Should win: Ke Huy Quan is locked. Few things are more satisfying than a feelgood comeback narrative coalescing around a performance that's actually deserving of awards!

Could win: None; The rest are just happy to be there.

Should've been here: Paul Dano got muscled out by his Fabelmans costar Judd Hirsch, but let's not pretend Hirsch's scenery-chewing cameo is a more substantial performance than what Dano is quietly building for an entire movie.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ✅

Will/Should win: Women Talking has long been the presumed unchallenged frontrunner, even as its Best Picture heat faded fast in January. But I wouldn't bet the bank on it...

Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front over-performed at BAFTA, including in this category (where it was not competing with Women Talking, mind you).

Should've been here: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On manages to find beauty and humour in a miniature world.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ✅

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once -- though less disciplined and lacking a certain writerly polish -- is certainly the most original screenplay of the lot.

Could/Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin is my slight preference of this very strong lineup, which is unprecedentedly identical to the Best Director lineup (give or take a Tony Kushner).

Should've been here: The Menu, for its vicious and delicious melange of horror and satire.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE ✅

Will win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio -- Netflix was wise to literally attach the beloved auteur's name to the title. I'm less a fan than most critics, but GDT is still owed postdated Oscars for Pan's Labyrinth, so I can't complain.

Could win: I guess the Disney/Pixar bloc could rally for Turning Red, but it seems unlikely.

Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is unassuming, sad, funny, and deceptively profound. Easily the best movie in this category. That said, I'll hear your argument that it barely qualifies as an "animated film".

Should've been here: The trippy anime rock opera Inu-Oh would have been a welcome party-crasher, but such interesting nominations never happen anymore since they opened voting beyond the animation branch. They should go back to the old system!

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE ✅

Will win: With a whopping nine nominations (all of them deserved) including Best Picture under its belt, All Quiet on the Western Front is the de facto lock.

Could win: Under the old system (prior to 2012), Argentina 1985 would have been your "surprise" winner, but such spoilers just don't happen in this category anymore.

Should win: Jerzy Skolimowski's avant garde donkey odyssey EO is refreshingly experimental, and a clear standout among this lineup of strong but conventional films. I also admire the two "Quiet" contestants, All Quiet and The Quiet Girl; The former harrowing and robust, the latter delicate and moving, both of them emotive and powerful in very different ways.

Should've been here: Decision to Leave's snub seems to suggest that the Academy's embrace of Parasite three years ago may simply have been the exception that proves the depressing rule: This organization just doesn't have the stomach for Korean cinema.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE ✅

Will win: Navalny's topicality whilst Russian tyranny continues to make global headlines gives it a definite edge.

Could win: The sweet volcanologist romance of Fire of Love is a tempting alternative in a category otherwise dominated by such "SERIOUS" subjects.

Should win: Without leaning on narration or talking heads, All That Breathes tells a layered story that's not just for the birds. While the makeshift avian rescue operation is a compelling anchor, the way it gathers ideas of growing complexity about the urban ecosystem, its politics, and its people is the true wind beneath this graceful documentary's wings.

Should've been here: Moonage Daydream plays like an out-of-body experience; A mesmerizing specimen of style as substance that one can imagine Bowie would have approved.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY ✅

Will/Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front balances the intimate and the epic scopes of war in visually immersive fashion.

Could win: Elvis has more than enough flash and pizzazz to surprise here, which would also make Mandy Walker the first woman ever to win this category(!)

Should've been here: If only this branch watched more documentaries; All That Breathes is stunning to look at, framing tiny creatures amidst urban decay in memorable tableaux. Another animal-themed achievement that deserved consideration here is EO, for developing a dynamic visual grammar to present a mule's-eye-view of the world.

BEST EDITING ✅

Will/Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once succeeds largely by the deftness of its multiversal crosscutting.

Could win: Top Gun: Maverick is nominated both here and in Best Sound, two categories which historically go the same film with surprising regularity.

Should've been here: Decision to Leave is a dizzying feat of byzantine construction that moves at a clip and keeps you on your toes.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN ❌

Will/Should win: Babylon looks to continue the trend of this category going to movies set in Hollywood. If it comes to pass, it will be the fourth time in the last seven years!

Could win: Elvis still poses a threat; Catherine Martin always seems to win Oscars in pairs, and since she's poised to win Costume Design, she could double down here as well.

Should've been here: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio -- Good on BAFTA for going there while the Academy's design branch is still clearly struggling with animation bias.

[Did win]: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST COSTUME DESIGN ❌

Will win: Elvis has the 'most costumes' factor in its favour.

Could win: Could Ruth E. Carter's additions to Wakandan wardrobe nab her a second trophy for the Black Panther franchise? Or will the Academy at large think it's just more of the same?

Should win: Jenny Beavan won just last year for a movie explicitly about fashion (Cruella), and she's back with another hâute couture showcase in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. But her costuming is at its best when demarcating working class functionality and old-money elegance (or tackiness, depending on the character) long before she has us drooling over Dior.

Should've been here: Glass Onion, though it dresses less than a dozen characters, it makes on-point sartorial decisions that even get their own laughs. A+ for the delightfully specific covid masks!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE ❌

Will win: My one no-guts-no-glory prediction this year is for the G.O.A.T. John Williams to become the oldest Oscar winner of all time. Although his score for The Fabelmans is the least substantial of the bunch, this may be the only category the movie could viably win, and would serve as a sentimental acknowledgement of the maestro's 50-year collaboration with Steven Spielberg.

Could win: Any of them. This is by far the most wide open category. Smartest money's on Babylon and All Quiet (I think), but hardly by a comfortable margin.

Should win: Justin Hurwitz is a perfect 4/4 with his Damien Chazelle collaborations thus far, as his Babylon soundtrack is an absolute banger ("Voodoo Mama" is wild). Also gotta throw a bit of love the way of All Quiet on the Western Front -- It's more than just those three notes. Give it a listen!

Should've been here: The Batman; Unfathomable that it couldn't even crack the shortlist. Since winning for Up 13 years ago, Giacchino can't seem to get arrested. Did he run over all the music branch's cats with his car, or something? "Sonata in Darkness" is my most listened track of 2022.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG ✅

Will win: "Naatu Naatu" from RRR highlights this global sensation's best scene.

Could win: "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick if they feel like name-checking Gaga, or "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever if they wanna name-check Rihanna instead.

Should win: Look, "Naatu Naatu" may be the best musical number of the year -- thanks chiefly to its choreography and staging -- but that's not the same as being the best song. However, given that its competition are all disposable end credits singles, it's hard to justify anything else winning.

Should've been here: Nothing has "New Body Rhumba" beat in this department.

BEST SOUND ✅

Will win: Top Gun: Maverick seems likely in this blockbuster-friendly category...

Could win: ... but All Quiet on the Western Front is a war movie after all. Another coin-flip category!

Should win: The Batman; For all its noirish visual panache, its greatest strength lies in the stifling soundscape it built for Gotham City. Scene-for-scene, it does more audio storytelling than any of its competition here.

Should've been here: Nope; That it didn't make the 10-film shortlist is criminal -- Did the sound branch even listen to it?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS ✅

Will/Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Could win: Nothing; They don't make locks more solid than this.

Should've been here: Thirteen Lives may have been as dull as cave water, but the way it marries practical recreations of the Thailand cave rescue (arguably more a feat of production design) with careful digital embellishments is impressive, all in the service of making the effects truly invisible and wholly authentic. Seriously, check out a behind-the-scenes video and prepare to be amazed.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING ❌

Will win: Elvis, because in this category it's tough to beat a transformative, lead-acting-nominated performance in a Best Picture nominee.

Could win: The Whale also has the nominated lead performance factor, and All Quiet has Best Picture pedigree.

Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front for its grim attention to detail.

Should've been here: Blonde; Some of those Marylin recreations approach uncanny valley.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT ✅

Will win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse has the power of Apple TV behind it, not to mention a very heavy 'cute factor' (not necessarily to its benefit, in this critic's eyes).

Could/Should win: Last few years they've given a pass on the kiddy shorts, instead opting for decidedly adult fare. In that vein, My Year of Dicks might triumph. Beyond its memorable title, it treats its teenage coming-of-age confessional with a great deal of heart, humour, and honesty, and would be an inspired choice. I'd also be thrilled if they ended up choosing Ice Merchants, the first Portuguese film of any length to be nominated for an Oscar(!), and a marvellous hand-drawn effort.

Should've been here: New Moon, inventively adapted from Colman Domingo's one-man play.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT ✅

Will win: An Irish Goodbye; As reductive as it sounds, this category which is often dominated by international nominees tends to default to English-language winners. In its defence though, it has charm and drollery to spare. I could envision it being expanded as a feature.

Could win: The Red Suitcase has passionate fans (rightly so), but Le Pupille has Disney+ dollars and Alfonso Cuaron pushing it hard. The latter might win due to it's high profile alone.

Should win: The Red Suitcase is the most empathetic and quietly riveting of the shorts in this lineup. I also admire the poetic, graphic-novel-inspired economy of Ivalu's storytelling.

Should've been here: (Abstain)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT ✅

Will win: The Elephant Whisperers has the easy accessibility of Netflix, and adorable baby pachyderms to boot. Sometimes an uplifting tagline is all you need.

Could win: Stranger at the Gate's messaging has sparked much debate. Some herald it as an inspiring redemption arc (including exec producer Malala Yousafzai), while others find its centring of a would-be mass murderer super cringe. But no publicity is bad publicity.

Should win: Haulout, which has not one, but two of the most memorable 'wtf' shots of the year. Watch it, but don't read what it's about in advance!

Should've been here: Nuisance Bear, which elegantly tracks the struggles of a habituated polar bear in Churchill, Manitoba.

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: My predictions took a nosedive, down to 16/23 from last year's personal best of 22.

I knew there was an outside possibility of missing those three close acting categories, but for none of the BAFTA winners to repeat at the Oscars is most unusual. Thankfully, the thrilling outcome is my rooting interest Michelle Yeoh winning Best Actress, becoming the first Asian woman (and only the second WOC) to do so in the Academy's 95-year history. Everything Everywhere All at Once took seven trophies in all, the highest total for a film in the expanded Best Picture era (tying with Gravity, though that lost Best Picture). It has become the first movie ever to win six above-the-line Oscars, and only the third to win three for acting, joining the rarefied air of A Streetcar Named Desire and Network.

Sadly, this surprising degree of domination came at a cost. As satisfying as it is to see such a wacky and imaginative feat of storytelling win big, many of the other best movies of the year got shafted completely. Despite high nomination counts, five of ten Best Picture nominees went home empty-handed, including future classics TÁR (0/6), The Fabelmans (0/7), and The Banshees of Inisherin (0/9). That stings. Pour one out for Elvis too (0/8), which at one point this season looked safe to win at least three, but was surprisingly blanked in the design categories.

Speaking of, they were the source of my downfall this year. Statistical logic was utterly decimated in Best Makeup, Production Design, and Costume Design, with all three going to different films, none of which won the BAFTA or the top prize from their respective guilds. This type of divergence between the precursors and AMPAS is uncommon. Hard to believe that in a year when I aced the Shorts (!) I would still have my lowest score in years. Is what it is.

Getting Best Original Score wrong was my own stupid fault, for switching my true instinct of All Quiet to a no-guts-no-glory John Williams sentimental vote at the last minute. In fact, All Quiet's impressive haul of four Oscars (tied with only three other films for most wins by a non-English-language movie) was enough to make me worry that it would snatch Best Adapted Screenplay away from her (see what I'm doing here), "her" referring to Sarah Polley and her excellent Women Talking. What a distinctly Canadian thrill it was to see one of the child stars of Road to Avonlea clutching an Academy Award with one of the Emily of New Moon stars, Sheila McCarthy, standing to applaud. It was like a mini "L.M. Montgomery by way 1990's CBC programs" reunion!

The show itself was a much needed balm to the disappointing efforts from the past two years; A sturdy, traditional, and surprisingly breezy affair (despite running overtime, as ever) that was devoid of bloated stunts or pointless tributes. The opening montage, which centred behind-the-scenes footage from various departments across several of the year's movies, set the tone very nicely -- This year's show would atone for last year's disrespectful debacle by honouring the actual craft of filmmaking. That vibe was consistently upheld throughout the presentation of all 23 categories. I loved it.

Or in other words, it was the sort of Oscar telecast that the network absolutely hates. Surely this must be why we had to endure an on-air introduction to Disney's new Little Mermaid trailer? I suppose a concession had to be made for ABC to allow this sort of cinephile-friendly show to go forward. But that's a small price to pay for what was otherwise a classy evening for which I harbour few complaints.

Jimmy Kimmel's third kick at the hosting can was exactly the sort of generic, low-key snark that was called for this year; Apart from that Babylon barb (don't target flops, Jimmy) and that misjudged bit which had him asking made-up fan questions to celebrity attendees (definitely don't drag Malala into this, Jimmy!), his patter was easy to chuckle with and just as easy to forget. That's really all I want out of host -- unless you're Hugh Jackman, but I can't hold every awards show host to that standard!

The presenter banter was also tasteful and never overstayed its welcome. The only time they went broad was with the cocaine bear gimmick (y'know what, I grinned), and good on Elizabeth Banks for marching out there and plowing through it when it sounds like she should have stayed in bed all day. Someone give that woman a round of applause and bowl of chicken soup!