2010-11

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

The time for posturing and prognostication has come to an end. The winners of the 83rd Annual Academy Awards on Sunday night will/should be:

BEST PICTURE ✅

Will be: The King's Speech (likely)

Should be: The Social Network

BEST DIRECTOR ✅

Will be: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Could be: neck-in-neck with David Fincher, The Social Network

Should be: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

BEST ACTOR ✅

Will be: Colin Firth, The King's Speech (lock)

Should be: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

BEST ACTRESS ✅

Will / should be: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Could be: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ✅

Will be: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Could be: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Should be: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ✅

Will be: Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Could be: Helena Bonham Carter, Hailee Steinfeld, or Amy Adams

Should be: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ✅

Will be: The King's Speech (likely)

Should be: The Kids Are All Right

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ✅

Will / should be: The Social Network (lock)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY ❌

Will be: True Grit

Could be: The King's Speech or Inception

Should be: Black Swan

BEST FILM EDITING ✅

Will / should be: The Social Network

Could be: The King's Speech

BEST ART DIRECTION ❌

Will be: The King's Speech

Could be: neck-in-neck with Alice in Wonderland

Should be: Inception

BEST COSTUME DESIGN ❌

Will be: The King's Speech

Could be: neck-in-neck with Alice in Wonderland

Should be: True Grit

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE ❌

Will be: The King's Speech (likely)

Should be: Inception

[Did win]: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SONG ✅

Will be: Toy Story 3

Could be: (any of the nominees)

Should be: Tangled

BEST SOUND MIXING ✅

Will / should be: Inception

Could be: True Grit

BEST SOUND EDITING ✅

Will be: Inception

Could be: True Grit

Should be: Tron Legacy

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS ✅

Will / should be: Inception (likely)

BEST MAKEUP ✅

Will be: The Wolfman

Could be: (any of the nominees)

Should be: The Wolfman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE ✅

Will/Should be: Toy Story 3 (lock)

BEST DOCUMENTARY ✅

Will be: Inside Job

Could be: (any of the nominees)

Should be: Exit Through the Gift Shop

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM ✅

Will be: In A Better World

Could be: Incendies or Biutiful

Should be: Biutiful

BEST ANIMATED SHORT ❌

Will/Should be: Madagascar, A Journey Diary

Could be: Day & Night or The Lost Thing

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT ❌

Will be: Na Wewe

Could be: God of Love

Should be: (abstain)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT ✅

Will be: Strangers No More

Could be: (any of the nominees)

Should be: (abstain)

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: It ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. There were few surprises to be had, as for the second straight year I managed to correctly predict 18/24 winners, including all eight major categories.

The closest thing to a surprise was Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross collecting trophies for what might be the most atypical Oscar-winning score ever. I was not expecting it to win, but apparently that's one category where I should have given the voting membership the benefit of the doubt. Well done.

Unfortunately, there was little satisfaction to be had in the rest. The night's biggest disappointment came early, when cinematography god Roger Deakins failed to win an Oscar for the ninth time. Yo, Academy, do you not think he's due or something? What has he done to you to make you treat him this way? Disgusting. But to be fair, Wally Pfister is a worthy alternative. He's been putting out consistently astonishing work with Christopher Nolan for the better part of the decade now, and this win for his fourth consecutive nomination is a fitting way to applaud one of the best director/DP collaborations working today.

Another disappointment, albeit a less surprising one, came in the form of Tim Burton's hideous Alice in Wonderland winning both design categories over infinitely more deserving work. I might have known. Let this be a lesson: always always always predict for "most" to trump "best" when the Academy chooses winners here.

True Grit joins the ranks of Gangs of New York, The Turning Point, and The Color Purple as one of the biggest Oscar losers of all time, going 0 for 10. Guess the Academy didn't love it that much after all.

The King's Speech seemed to underwhelm as well, winning only four of its twelve nominations (all of them major categories though). Other multiple winners include The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Inception, the aforementioned Alice, and The Fighter, nailing down acting awards for Christian Bale and that nutty Melissa Leo, who proceeded to use the F-word on live TV. Some people are endeared to her antics and crazy behaviour, but I have to confess that I've never liked her, and her speech reeked of the same arrogance as have all her speeches this season.

I was so miffed by the 2010 Oscarcast that both it and its producer Adam Shankman soared to the top of last season's personal annoyances. But that didn't give this year's show a free ticket, and indeed, producers Bruce Cohen and Don Mischer managed to disappoint. Some of the blame could be laid on the predictability of the winners, but lazy writing, poor hosting, and a severe lack of focus ensured that this year's Oscars were a snooze.

Many reviews are pointing a finger (a bit harshly I think) at James Franco, who was either feigning reluctance to be there in a failed attempt at accenting Anne Hathaway's manic cheerleader energy, or was actually reluctant to be there and doing a bad job at hiding it. Some folks are even glibly suggesting that he was stoned the whole time (I'm not sure I believe that, but rewatching his bits can't help but make one wonder). I don't blame him for the show's overall lack of personality, but he certainly wasn't helping matters.