2017-18

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

Last year’s unprecedented shocker in Best Picture (to say nothing of several other categories that bucked decades-old patterns) has made it clear that the Academy’s ever growing and diversifying membership is leading us into a wonderful new era of unpredictability. After several consecutive seasons averaging 19 or more correct predictions, it seems as if the new normal for me is south of 16. I can’t say I mind. This fresh aura of uncertainty has reinvigorated my interest! And while a number of the marquee races this year are sadly foregone conclusions (acting categories = snooze), the preferential ballot has all but guaranteed that the night’s top prize will always be a nail-biter until the envelope is opened... maybe even after!

Best Picture ❌

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could win: The Shape of Water is arguably a smarter bet, but don’t be shocked if Get Out, Lady Bird or even Dunkirk pulls off an upset

Should win: Dunkirk

Should be nominated: The Florida Project, Icarus, BPM, War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Director ✅

Will win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (lock)

Should win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Should be nominated: Sean Baker (The Florida Project), Darren Aronofsky (mother!)

Best Actor ✅

Will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (lock)

Should win: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Should be nominated: James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Andy Serkis (Apes 3), Jeremy Renner (Wind River)

Best Actress ✅

Will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards (lock)

Should win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Should be nominated: Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman), Diane Kruger (In the Fade), Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Best Supporting Actor ✅

Will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards (lock)

Should win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Should be nominated: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Craig (Logan Lucky), Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)

Best Supporting Actress ✅

Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya (lock)

Should win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Should be nominated: Holly Hunter (The Big Sick), Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project), Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)

Best Original Screenplay ❌

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could/Should win: Get Out (with Shape of Water and Lady Bird as legitimate dark horses)

Should be nominated: The Post, Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay ✅

Will/Should win: Call Me by Your Name (lock)

Should be nominated: The Breadwinner, The Lost City of Z

Best Animated Feature ✅

Will win: Coco (lock)

Should win: The Breadwinner

Should be nominated: Two less movies (Thin year for animation; Three nominees would’ve been enough)

Best Foreign Language Film ✅

Will win: A Fantastic Woman

Could win: Any of them; A true five-horse race!

Should win: Loveless

Should be nominated: BPM, In the Fade

Best Documentary, Feature ✅

Will/Should win: Icarus

Could win: Faces Places, Last Men in Aleppo

Should be nominated: Jane

Best Cinematography ✅

Will/Should win: Blade Runner 2049 (I swear to God, if they don't finally give Deakins his Oscar I'm gonna stick my head in an oven and have that oven hurled into the sun)

Could win: Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Mudbound

Should be nominated: The Lost City of Z, Wonder Wheel

Best Editing ❌

Will win: Baby Driver

Could/Should win: Dunkirk (This may well be the single closest race of the year; Flip a coin)

Should be nominated: Get Out, The Post

Best Production Design ✅

Will win: The Shape of Water

Could/Should win: Blade Runner 2049

Should be nominated: Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Coco

Best Costume Design ✅

Will/Should win: Phantom Thread

Could win: Beauty and the Beast, The Shape of Water

Should be nominated: Wonder Woman, Atomic Blonde, Thor: Ragnarok

Best Original Score ✅

Will win: The Shape of Water

Could/Should win: Phantom Thread

Should be nominated: Hostiles, Darkest Hour, War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Original Song ❌

Will win: “This Is Me”, The Greatest Showman

Could win: “Remember Me”, Coco

Should win: “Mystery of Love”, Call Me by Your Name

Should be nominated: “Visions of Gideon”, Call Me by Your Name

Best Sound Mixing ✅

Will win: Dunkirk

Could/Should win: Baby Driver

Should be nominated: Kong: Skull Island, War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Editing ✅

Will/Should win: Dunkirk

Could win: Blade Runner 2049, Baby Driver

Should be nominated: mother!, Detroit

Best Visual Effects ✅

Will win: Blade Runner 2049

Could/Should win: War for the Planet of the Apes (The groundbreaking work on this franchise has gone completely over the Academy's head twice already; One last shot for them to catch the boat)

Should be nominated: Okja

Best Makeup and Hair Styling ✅

Will/Should win: Darkest Hour (lock)

Should be nominated: The Shape of Water, It, I Tonya, Logan

Best Animated Short ❌

Will win: Lou

Could win: Dear Basketball (but honestly, anything's possible with the shorts)

Should win: Garden Party

Should be nominated: Cradle, The Fox and the Whale, In a Heartbeat

Best Live-Action Short (Strongest category of the year; All five are great!) ✅

Will win: The Silent Child

Could win: Dekalb Elementary, The Eleven O'Clock

Should win: The Eleven O'Clock

Best Documentary, Short Subject ❌

Will win: Heroin(e)

Could win: Traffic Stop

Should win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Should be nominated: Alone

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: 18/24 (par for the course).

What a wonderfully weird winner Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water is (even if it's not swimming anywhere near the top of my personal ballot). The four acting victors completed their clean sweep of the season, as expected. Hey precursors, a little more variety next year, please and thank you! A half dozen coin-flip categories didn't land my way, but overall I'm thrilled to see some individuals who should have Oscars from long ago finally collect; Roger Deakins, Glenn Keane, Lee Smith, James Ivory, and the aforementioned Guillermo del Toro were very satisfying winners.