2018-19

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar! Oscar, Oscar! Who Will Win?

It's been a bumpy season. Ever since August, when the Academy -- under the misguidance of new president John Bailey -- proposed a laundry list of radical and cataclysmic overhauls to the Oscars broadcast, it has seemed as though they can't do anything right. Every single bad decision made by the board of governors has met with media and industry ridicule (or outright ire), and every single one of them has subsequently been walked back. The first domino to fall immediately following that fateful August announcement was the idea of a Best Popular Film category, swiftly laughed out of the room by journalists and the Academy's own membership alike. Unfortunately, it overshadowed the far more damaging proposed changes: A hard 3-hour limit to the show, the axing of multiple categories to the commercial breaks, the omission of song performances not deemed "famous enough" (of which there sadly is a precedent already). These bonehead moves would not be reversed until just weeks ago when Hollywood outcry reached a fever pitch. Even their attempts to land Kevin Hart as emcee were bungled when he refused to meet their ultimatum of apologizing for age-old homophobic Tweets.

Who is to blame for this chaotic mishandling of what is normally an exciting build-up to the biggest night in the cinematic calendar? Is it Bailey, who's lack of PR savvy (especially compared to previous prez Cheryl Boone Isaacs) has allowed every media release to be given a negative spin? Is it the entire governing board, so gargantuan in size and out of touch with what the Oscars' core fanbase looks for in the yearly telecast? Is it ABC, whose TV execs manipulated that unwieldy governing board into feeling such desperate measures were necessary, but only as a guise to promoting their own product (notice how all four of the would-be cut categories featured no nominees distributed by parent company Disney)?

Conventional logic suggests that a combination of all these factors is at play, but what's truly fascinating is how this microcosm of controversy seems to perfectly capture what is essentially an entire organization at war with itself. The Academy's membership has nearly doubled over the last decade. Now 9000 strong and more diversified than ever, an identity crisis of old-guard vs. new-guard has emerged which is reflected not only in the governors' various snafus, but in the whole voting body's nominations, which sees progressive arthouse fare (Roma, The Favourite) clashing directly with middling and problematic cinematic comfort food (Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody). Whatever comes out on top tonight, you can bet the chorus of dissent from the losing side will be deafening.

Trying to predict this outcome is a fool's errand, but with God as my witness, I am that fool! Last year I bounced back to my average success rate with 18/24. If I can hold steady or improve this year, it'll at least be some small tonic to what I suspect will be a night full of winners that will not make me happy...

Best Picture ✅

Will win: Green Book

Could win: It's a wide open race. Roma seems the most likely challenger, but I'd be totally down with dark horse BlacKkKlansman pulling a shocker!

Should win: The Favourite

Should be nominated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Eighth Grade, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Minding the Gap, First Man

Best Director ✅

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (lock). Roma is exquisite, but I gotta say...

Should win: Spike Lee is due, and he conquers BlacKkKlansman's tonal shifts as only a seasoned provocateur can

Should be nominated: Bradely Cooper (A Star Is Born), Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)

Best Actor ✅

Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Could win: Christian Bale, Vice. The Academy never has been able to break their addiction to biopic impersonations. It may come down to more likable “character”: Freddie Mercury v. Dick Cheney... Seems like an easy call

Should win: Bradely Cooper, A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Best Actress ❌

Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Could win: Tight contest between Glenn Close and Olivia Colman, but sticking with Close (God, I don't wanna be wrong on this one)

Should win: Rooting for Close, but Colman gives the best performance

Should be nominated: Toni Collette (Hereditary), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

Best Supporting Actor ✅

Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (lock). 2nd Oscar in 3 years, and for... this? Remind me again how we let this happen?

Should win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should be nominated: Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk & Widows), Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give), Alex Wolff (Hereditary), Hugh Grant (Paddington 2)

Best Supporting Actress ✅

Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Could win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Should win: As terrific as Weisz is, I can't root for her on principle (she's a lead, and so is Emma Stone), which leaves King as the only acceptable option

Should be nominated: Sakura Ando (Shoplifters), Haley Lu Richardson (Support the Girls), Claire Foy (First Man), Elizabeth Debicki (Widows), Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

Best Adapted Screenplay ✅

Will win: BlacKkKlansman

Could win: Who knows? Both writing prizes are wide open...

Should win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should be nominated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Leave No Trace

Best Original Screenplay ✅

Will win: Green Book (despite being insufferably predictable, having sought no input from Don Shirley’s relatives, and the easy-queasy tone it takes regarding race relations. Some things can be too digestible, y’know. Like a laxative.)

Could/Should win: The Favourite

Should be nominated: Eighth Grade, Shoplifters

Best Animated Feature ✅

Will/Should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Could win: I have a nauseating Spidey sense that Incredibles 2 might steal it away on the strength of the Disney bloc. They are legion, and they've burned me before (remember Big Hero 6? Ach!)

Best Foreign Language Film ✅

Will/Should win: Roma (lock), but I'm actually rooting for Shoplifters, since we already know Cuaron is literally going to win more Oscars than he can carry (assuming one trophy per hand). In a different year, any of the other four could, and would, have made an outstanding winner.

Should be nominated: Birds of Passage

Best Documentary, Feature ✅

Will win: Free Solo

Could win: RBG, which is a perfectly adequate biography, but let's face it, would be a terribly disappointing winner given the high calibre of its competition

Should win: Minding the Gap

Should be nominated: Three Identical Strangers

Best Cinematography ✅

Will win: Roma (lock-ish), first black-and-white winner in 25 years

Could win: The Favourite

Should win: Cold War

Should be nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man, The Rider, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Editing ❌

Will win: Vice, because it is not uncommon for them to simply vote for “most” editing rather than the best

Could win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: BlacKkKlansman

Should be nominated: First Man

Best Production Design ❌

Will/Should win: The Favourite; Details are immaculate, and get a unique showcase with all those fisheye lenses compressing every corner of the sets into view

Could win: Black Panther

Should be nominated: Isle of Dogs, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Costume Design ❌

Will win: The Favourite (but does Sandy Powell really need a 4th Oscar?)

Could/Should win: Black Panther feels like a distinct (and deserving) possibility for the great Ruth E. Carter, but fantasies don't typically fare as well here as period pieces

Should be nominated: A Simple Favor, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Original Score ✅

Will/Could win: Impossible to call, since the music branch unjustifiably snubbed First Man. I'm going out on a limb for Black Panther's memorable blend of tribal percussion and superhero bombast

Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should be nominated: First Man, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Original Song ✅

Will win: “Shallow”, A Star Is Born (lock)

Should win: Gaga arguably deserves it because the whole soundtrack is strong, but there were better songs than “Shallow” on there. Of the nominees, the Mary Poppins Returns one is superior

Should be nominated: “Maybe It's Time”, A Star Is Born

Best Sound Mixing ✅

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody, because voters don't actually know what sound mixing is, but they luuuurve them some Queen

Could/Should win: First Man deserves to win this in a moonwalk (see what I did there?)

Should be nominated: Mission: Impossible - Fallout, A Quiet Place

Best Sound Editing ❌

Will/Should win: Tough category (as always). Going out on a limb for A Quiet Place to win by virtue of its concept alone, but it'd actually make a very fine choice, as would...

Could win: First Man (Just PLEASE don't let Bohemian Rhapsody steal this one too!)

Should be nominated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Ready Player One, Incredibles 2

Best Visual Effects ✅

Will win: First Man has the most prestigious vibe of the nominees, a boon in this category

Could win: Avengers: Infinity War has the "most" vfx in its favour

Should win: Solo: A Star Wars Story (This franchise has long understood the right balance between practical and CG fx)

Should be nominated: Ant-Man and the Wasp, Annihilation, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Best Makeup and Hair Styling ✅

Will win: Vice (lock)

Should win: Border (You need to actually look up photos of the actors to appreciate how tremendous the prosthetic work is in this Swedish oddity)

Should be nominated: Suspiria, Black Panther

Best Animated Short ✅

Will win: Bao. Overt sentiment usually rules the day in this category, but...

Could win: ... One Small Step may pull away votes, allowing the distinctive farce of Animal Behaviour to sneak up the middle

Should win: Weekends

Should be nominated: Lost & Found

Best Live-Action Short ❌

Will/Should win: Marguerite, which is the only nominee NOT about unspeakable, violent tragedies befalling and/or being committed by little boys. And what a small miracle it'd be for such a modest, delicate and refined film to win.

Could win: I dunno... Skin?

Best Documentary, Short Subject ✅

Will/Could win: Period. End of Sentence has benefit of overtly optimistic tone, though End Game takes a graceful approach to the complicated beauty of death. Either would make a worthy winner.

Should win: Black Sheep

Should be nominated: My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

Post-Oscars Analysis

Final score: 18/24 (par for the course).

But I can count on three fingers the winners that were worth getting excited about this year: Spike Jonze, Ruth Carter, and Spider-Verse. Otherwise, this is the most disappointing roster of Oscar winners I've ever bore witness to.

Green Book's Best Picture victory aged poorly the second the envelope seal was broken. Bohemian Rhapsody for Editing? I mean, the Sound ones I can forgive, but Editing? When was the last time a movie won this category for editing that was actively bad? Even Olivia Colman's victory (for a brilliant performance in the best movie of the year) was impossible to enjoy in the wreckage of what was supposed to be Glenn Close's LOOOOONG overdue moment.