Divy Up the Middle East Anew

Redraw the Borders of the Middle East

I decided to redraw the boundaries of the Middle East by further subdividing it by ethnic group. The first and most obvious choice was drawing Kurdistan out of Northern Iraq, Northeastern Syria, and Southeastern Turkey. I also elected to include parts of Southeastern Iran and a little bit of Iraq so that they could have a seaport. Had I truly desired to further aggrandize our Turkish allies, I would have taken the Kurdish enclaves in the portions of Turkey on the Mediterranean and unified them into another strip to another seaport. This is a reward for their faithful service in prosecuting the war against ISIL, and the need for a good central ally to supplant Turkey. However, this does not compromise control of the Dardanelles, which is central to the continual containment of Russia by NATO. It also creates a buffer region in the heart of the Middle East for the US against the possible encroachments of a revamped Turkish, Arab, or Persian empire. It also could end the demands and terrorist attacks by the People’s Party of Kurdistan or PKK on our ally Turkey.

The next change I made was an effort to weaken Iran. I expanded Azerbaijan southward into ethnic Azeri enclaves in Iran. About 25% of Iranians are Azeri, it seemed like a good idea to integrate Azerbaijan a little further. With the oil production to the north in Baku and the mining and industry in the southern portions, this state could support itself. If I was to do this again, I would not, even though it is an interesting intellectual exercise. The reason we wanted a strong united Iran in the post WWII era was the Soviet Union's demands "in the name of the Azerbaijani people" for expansion. Iran, secular or religious provided a block on the constant Soviet maneuvers.

I then turned to the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon problem. I united them into one big state. I almost wonder now if it would be better to put Syria and Lebanon together like they were in Byzantine times. This is not a well-made state and is doomed to failure. I wish I had more information and more time.

Israel is already on track to unifying Palestine. I ended the farce of a two-state solution and made it one, including Jordan. The Abraham Accords point the way, it gives the Israelis control over their borders. I also included in my Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan something called Palestinian Native Corporations: The Israelis, bankrolled by the United States and other Western Powers bought all the land from the Palestinians in the form of corporations with Palestinian shareholders. (Bolan, 2021) There is a part of me that would happily give them the Sinai Peninsula in exchange for the unification of Egypt and Sudan. This gives them some space and time for defense in depth, and a place to retreat to if there was ever any danger.

I unified Egypt and Sudan as they were before independence. As much as they distrust each other, it gives them more leverage against Ethiopia. They also do not have to deal with South Sudanese militants like they used to before the independence of South Sudan.

I left the UAE alone; I like them and their religious toleration. They also have a great national security organization and great economy.

I gave Saudi a portion of what I think is Syria. They lack the industry they need in order to prosecute a war against Iran and its proxies. I suspect having this would make them a more useful ally.

Yemen is intractable, I left it alone. I left Oman alone as well. The future of constitutional monarchy is there and in Morocco. Western Sahara gains its independence, but there are some issues with that.

I split Afghanistan and Pakistan into its constituent parts. Baluchistan is a country, as well as Afghanistan, but with a Pashtun, and thus Taliban super-majority. I am still mulling over Henry Kissinger’s wisdom of the formation of Belgium as a state in the 19th century; as if it could be a model for Afghanistan in the future by the other states around it. I took the Hazara and Northern Alliance and placed them in their own countries. If I could, I would place them as part of Uzbekistan or one of the other Central Asian countries. The problem with this is this definitely places them in the ball court of Russia, which is not ok for the Great Game or India, but since the Northern Alliance already depends on Russia and the United States, it may work out just fine.

I used the GeoReferencing Ethnic Groups (GREG) shapefiles from Harvard WorldMap, found below. This was to help me find out the ethnic splits I needed to make. A better cartographic model with more time would have involved ethnicity overlayed with water, physical boundaries, religious differences, and resources, to find the best boundaries for a future Middle East.

Bibliography

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Harvard World Map. 2010. “Harvard WorldMap.” Worldmap.harvard.edu. 2010. http://worldmap.harvard.edu/data/geonode:GREG_0vV.

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