2025 Free Agent Projections

Pete Alonso, 1B, 29 y/o, 6 years MLB Service  --- Projected Contract:  8 year $26 million AAV - $208 million 

The "Polar Bear" will be one of the more interesting decisions in this free agency class, as teams are going to have to weigh how much they like his power output. My projections chart for him shows a fairly steep drop-off in wOBA, and he is not perennially quite near Matt Olson or Paul Goldschmidt, but he is still a top of the line first baseman. The way teams value the position will be interesting, but I think Alonso still has the ability to be a big part of the right lineup. 

I ultimately think that he winds back up in Queens with the Mets. I think Steve Cohen knows what he is building and knows that keeping Alonso in the fold will be best for him in this window of contention and the core that they have now (we will see if David Stearns agrees). He might wind up getting more money than Olson since he will actually reach the open market (another good job to Alex Anthopolous in Atlanta), but I am a little more bearish on the number than others may think. He will be 30 years old entering the first year of his new contract and the numbers aren't showing steady improvement on the surface despite his top of the line bat speed. 

Other teams that I could see push for Alonso: Astros - have a hole at 1B and if they lose Bregman, he could occupy some of that money. Giants. 

Alex Bregman, 3B, 30 y/o, 7 years MLB Service --- Projected Contract:  6 year $26 million AAV - $156 million

Bregman is a couple of years removed from being one of the premier offensive third basemen in the game in his first three years in the bigs. His glove is as good as it has ever been, and he puts the ball in play. Teams would love to have someone like this on their team. The more traditional player comparison chart (looking at OPS) has some similarities with Rafael Devers and Kris Bryant which are not terrible comps. 

The market for Bregman should be pretty interesting, as the current landscape of the third base position is odd. Most of the teams who would be willing to spend for Bregman either have an established third baseman or have a young prospect holding the position currently. While a position change for Bregman or another player to accommodate his services is not out of the question, I would be quite interested if I were the Blue Jays. If they are committed to holding this core group of players, then Bregman could be a great addition with Vlad Jr and Bichette. The lineup would be very right-handed but the skillsets of the players complement each other pretty well. 

Other teams that I could see push for Bregman: The Astros should still fight for Bregman, as they are a perennial division contender and have the familiarty with him. The Mariners are a very interesting team for him, and the more I look at it, the more I kind of like it. The Tigers could really accelerate their timeline with him and move him to another infield spot when Walker Jenkins arrives in a few years (and the familiarity with AJ Hinch). 

Gleyber Torres, 2B, 28 y/o, 6 years MLB Service --- Projected Contract:  5 year $19 million AAV - $95 million 

Gleyber Torres, a former top prospect for the Cubs and Yankees, should benefit from a pretty bare market for second basemen this offseason. Again, positional changes could easily happen for many teams, but Gleyber is the clear top second baseman in this class. His projections here show dips in his wOBA and WAR over the next few years and after a poor defensive season, there will be teams who question his effectiveness at the position. He may never get back to his 40 HR power that he showed in 2019 (maybe an * on that season with the juiced balls) and has had a bit of a dip this year in production at the plate. Still, he enters free agency relatively young and should have a number of teams interested.  

As a Yankee fan, I am pretty interested in how they treat Gleyber's free agency. While there is no bad blood between the team and player, there seems to be some underlying tension. I think his teammates love him but something about the dynamic seems off to me. Could totally be wrong! Ultimately, I do not see the Yankees resigning him for a few reasons (contingent on resigning Soto), but mostly their desire to stay under the luxury tax and their contingency plans if he does leave. For a lot of similar reasons to Bregman, I could see the Blue Jays push for him if they like the fit.

Other teams who could want Gleyber: The Giants are an interesting fit for Gleyber, as it is on the other side of the country and Oracle Park wouldn't give him much help in his home run totals. That said, he could be a viable option for them and form a good top half of the lineup in the Bay. 

Christian Walker, 1B, 33 y/o, 6 years MLB Service --- Projected Contract:  3 year $23 million AAV - $69 million 

The best defensive first baseman over the last four years, by a lot, is Christian Walker. Walker is no slouch at the plate either, posting an .800+ OPS in each of the last three seasons and has hovered +/- 30 home runs in each. His wOBA projection seems to drop off a little bit, though that is likely due to his increasing age. That is the one question mark that surrounds Walker is that he will be 34 on Opening Day next year. His recent years have given teams ample confidence that he can perform at a high level into his later 30s. 

Regardless, I think Walker still gets a good contract, though on a small year commitment. When Anthony Rizzo resigned at his age 33 season, his numbers both offensively and defensively were not at the recent success that Walker has had. Rizzo got an average of 20 million per year, and I think Walker gets more. His WAR projection is massive, which I think may be a little off and perhaps inflated due to his defense. 

The Diamondbacks, who are still in contention in the NL West, should be the favorite to resign him. A lot of the same teams that should be in on Alonso should be in on Walker, think Giants, Astros.