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Opinion: The Yankees Should Sell Some Pitchers!
Opinion: The Yankees Should Sell Some Pitchers!
by Drew Duffy 7/24/23
Earlier this morning, I read an article in The Athletic, power-ranking the MLB teams and giving a “Biggest Deadline Need” for each team. The overwhelming majority of teams who are in the top half of the power rankings a week before the deadline need something the Yankees have. Pitching. The Orioles, Rays, Dodgers, Rangers, Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and the Padres are all amongst “contending” teams who need help with pitching. The dicey part about this dilemma is that if the Yankees off-load pitchers to these teams, then they run the risk of helping a contending team in their quest for the World Series. It is ironic that the other 4 teams in the AL East need pitching and 6 of the 10 teams mentioned are in the American League. That adds another layer of stress and thought into the idea, but might be something that the Yankees should consider.
While the current 2023 season for the Yankees has been a disappointment thus far, there are interesting decisions to be made regarding the future at this deadline. The best case scenario for the Yankees? The team decides to acquire both cost-controlled and year-controlled players who help the team now and in the future, without making a huge splash and spending on a “rental” player. This may mean parting with some major league talent and mid-tier prospects. But how I see it, the Yankees actually have the ability to play from their strength at this deadline. We know how bad the Yankees have been at the plate, especially in the absence of their MVP caliber captain. What the Yankees ~do~ have is an organizational surplus in pitching. Both at the major and upper-minor league levels, there are a handful of arms that should be considered when making some potential moves.
Let’s do a little thought experiment:
Here is what the Yankees rotation could look like come October given two things. First, the Yankees are in the playoffs. Second, that all of these arms are healthy and pitching to their potential.
Gerrit Cole
Carlos Rodon
Nestor Cortes Jr.
*Clarke Schmidt
*Luis Severino
*Domingo German
*Jhony Brito
*Randy Vasquez
*Frankie Montas (remember him?)
The * indicate a subjective order of all of these pitchers. Severino should technically be the 4th option if history shows us anything, but with a down year who knows. Clarke Schmidt has been very good as of late. German has been up and down with the highest of high you can attain (perfect game), and some starts going three innings. Still, the Yankees in this view are loaded with starting pitching depth. Let’s look at when these players reach free-agency.
Gerrit Cole (2029)
Carlos Rodon (2029)
Nestor Cortes Jr. (2026)
*Clarke Schmidt (2028)
*Luis Severino (2024)
*Domingo German (2025)
*Jhony Brito (2028+)
*Randy Vasquez (2028+)
*Frankie Montas (2024)
Clearly, Cole and Rodon are not going anywhere, but other than that, there is some intrigue regarding the other arms in the rotation. In a perfect world, the Yankees keep this starting rotation intact for the foreseeable years, hoping everyone improves and they create a dominant force on the mound. Unfortunately, that is a little bit far-fetched. Now, the Yankees have valued the idea of having pitching depth for the last couple of seasons as they get through August and September and into October. In last year’s division series they technically had 6 starting pitchers on the roster, though some could bounce to the bullpen as well. This was even after they traded away Jordan Montgomery at the deadline last season, the #3/4 starter in the rotation.
Now, if we look at the minor league prospects, we talk ourselves even further into the idea of selling pitchers. Among some of these pitchers are ones that are Rule 5 eligible for this off-season, as I wrote for Pinstriped Prospects. Here are some of those names:
Clayton Beeter, #13 Prospect
Juan Carela, #29 Prospect
Edgar Barclay, LHP in Double A
Osiel Rodriguez, RHP in Single A
Mitch Spence, RHP in Triple A
Technically, all of these pitchers are fair game for trades and may be moved to supplement the roster. Even for some of these players, earning a 40-man roster spot is going to take some serious manipulation. It would be prudent for the Yankees management to get some value in return by dealing some of these arms. The pivotal decision will likely be made in regards to Clayton Beeter, whom some believe will be protected this year. He is a player with good value for the Yankees as it stands though so his fate in the short term will be interesting.
If I were the Yankees, I would look into trading at least two of my major league pitchers, preferably German and Brito. Schmidt has been a name circled already, but I personally do not think that the Yankees will give up 4 more seasons of control on someone that they drafted. He could be used to swing a nice player, but I see Schmidt as locking down a #3/4 rotation spot for the next couple of years at least.I do not know how much value Severino can bring back, but the Yankees could also get a prospect back in hopes of salvaging what they can from him.
I do not have perfect answers for what the Yankees will choose to do regarding their trade decisions. That is why Brian Cashman and co. get paid the big bucks. But if I were them, I would play my advantage and play it strong. The Yankees have a surplus of pitching that the rest of the league could use for a more reasonable price than some bigger name players out there. The Yankees have already been reported to be in a “buy/sell” mode, so why not sell one of your most valuable assets to teams that may be willing to pay a nice price. Also, I did not even get into the potential bullpen arms that can be dealt, so keep an eye on some of those players to be on the move as well. Definitely something to keep an eye on here over the next week as things shake out.
With the Firing of Lawson, Yankees Quietly Admit to Initial Mistake
With the Firing of Lawson, Yankees Quietly Admit to Initial Mistake
by Drew Duffy 7/12/23
With the firing of Dillon Lawson on Sunday, and the subsequent hiring of Sean Casey on Monday, the New York Yankees seem to be retracing their steps just a little bit. When Lawson was hired by the organization in 2018, he was hired as the minor-league hitting coordinator. In this role, he was primarily tasked with overseeing the development of the minor league hitters, and instilling best practices for their development. The Yankees had seen some success with their top position player prospects under his tenure, namely strong improvements from Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and even Kevin Alcantara, now with the Cubs. His successful track record with these players earned him a good standing in the organization, and eventually led him to earning the job as the major league hitting coach before the 2022 season. While the Yankees found success offensively in 2022, it is hard to ignore the struggles that the team has faced this season. Most of their star players had above-average seasons last year, especially with the MVP performance of Aaron Judge.
If we look at the overall lineup performance difference between 2022 and the first half of 2023, we see the drastic change in effectiveness. For the season last year, the main lineup (1-9) had an OPS+ of 115.77 , if you take Judge out of that group, it was 103.75, still above league average. This year, the lineup (1-9) has an OPS+ of 98.77 with Judge, and 86.88 without.
OPS+ With Judge OPS+ Without Judge
2023 98.77 86.88
2022 115.77 103.75
Clearly, the blame cannot solely fall on Lawson, but someone had to be let go in the midst of this downward spiral and he was a relatively easy choice. As the narrative often associated with Lawson goes, he is an analytically-driven coach. Nearly every article or interview plays with this idea, as the whole thought process behind Lawson’s coaching and philosophy was based on analytics. His famous motto, “hit strikes hard”, is actually quite a good one, in my opinion. The problem for Lawson? Very few Yankees were effectively incorporating his advice this season. What lies within this downfall is another glaring statistic, one that the Yankees have prided themselves on for years, BB%. The Yankees walk rate this season ranks 20th in the MLB at 8.4%, after leading the league in 2020, 2021, and 2022. This shift in approach and philosophy has killed the Yankees success at the plate. These combining factors, along with many others, forced the removal of Lawson, but I think it is also telling of what the major league team is experiencing at the moment.
Lawson is a great analytical mind, one who can develop hitters into becoming better and more valuable prospects, but the current Yankees roster composition just didn’t make sense to me in this way. The Yankees had the oldest batting group last season at 30.2 years old, and this year they are slightly lower at 29.1, ranking fourth in the league. Still, having names in the lineup like Josh Donaldson, D.J. LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Judge, may not lend themselves to an over reliance on analytics. While all players are buying into the information, Lawson’s skill sets might be better served with a younger roster, or a group of players that have more so been raised in this environment. This is why I think the Yankees are backpedaling their practices a little bit, especially with going out and bringing in Sean Casey from the MLB Network.
The hiring of Sean Casey, to me, seems as though the Yankees are catering more to the guys in the clubhouse. Casey was a tenured big-leaguer who had many good seasons at the plate. His perspective, from being in the box, knowing what players are thinking directly, being able to connect from experience and not a formula, is what may save this Yankees offense. He was blunt in his press release as he noted, “at the end of the day, we’re going to focus on making sure each hitter has a process that brings out the best version of himself”. There is no set in stone calculation for all of these hitters to follow for them to achieve their potential this season. The analytics here are supposed to supplement and fill in the lines, not overtake the art of hitting necessarily. Sean Casey comes into this situation with a lot to look forward to and very little pressure. If the Yankees offense picks up from where they were in the first half, he gets credit for his presence and different perspective. If the offense continues to falter, maybe the lineup and roster make-up really was that bad. In both cases, I think that the Yankees are admitting to a mistake, both at the major league level with the roster and with their initial coaching decision a year and a half ago. Lawson will find more future success in baseball, and there is undoubtedly a need for his kind of brain in the game. But, for this Yankees team, the need is for runners to get on base and people to drive them in, as a team. Let’s see if Sean Casey and the Yankee lineup can turn it around in the second half of the season. For the sake of everyone involved, let's hope they do.
Gerrit Cole: "The Most Under Appreciated Yankee?"
Gerrit Cole: The Most Under Appreciated Yankee?
by Drew Duffy 4/13/23
In December of 2019, free agent hurler Gerrit Cole, signed the largest ever contract for a pitcher. The Yankees were aggressive in their pursuit of Cole and landed their guy at a whopping sum of $324 million over 9 years. Now, that contract alone will stir attention to Cole every single time he takes the bump. Regardless of performance, Cole will probably never live up to the expectations that some people have based on that contract. Though, I would argue that Gerrit Cole might just be the most under appreciated player on the Yankees currently. He is now the second highest paid player on the team, thanks to Aaron Judge’s rise to superstardom and his lucrative contract this past off-season. However, in baseball, there may be no more attention paid to the person who throws the ball to home plate. The pitcher is the sole attention grabber during any game, as they are positioned in the middle of the diamond by their lonesome, and they act as the kickstart to every play. This causes pitchers to become one of the most important positions in the game. The role and status of a “Number 1” pitcher is vital to a team’s success during the regular season and the playoffs. Teams without a true “#1” have a difficult time competing with teams that do. This luxury is often overlooked, when you do have a shutdown arm. The Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to be that guy. His performance over the last 4 seasons has proved his worth. He has pitched in 75 games in his Yankee career, bearing the load of the rotation in many ways. While his pitches themselves are exceptional, his command pinpoint, and competitiveness unmatched, his best ability might just be his availability. Cole has pitched the second most innings in the league since he became a Yankee in 2020. He has provided stability and reliability at the top of the rotation in the Bronx, taking the ball every fifth or sixth day. Cole has never feared the pressure, and has really lived in the spotlight for his entire professional life. Gerrit Cole may never reach some of the expectations that the dollar signs on his contract signify to some people. To others, including this Yankee fan, Cole has become a staple of consistency for the Yankees. I honestly feel like he is in a little bit of a “lose-lose” situation (pretty ironic given his financial circumstances). Anytime that Cole may have a rough outing, people will say he is overpaid. Every good outing he has, well isn’t it expected? He lives in a seemingly insurmountable position and will never be able to appeal to everyone. To true Yankee fans, he has already been worth his contract, now all he has to do is put a championship ring on his finger and get a parade in the Canyon of Heroes this winter.
Ultimate Reliability from 45 in the Yankees Chase for 28. Go Yanks.
Volpe Cracks the Opening Day Roster - “Yankees Fans Ready for Anthony Volpe, Go Thank Kris Bryant”
“Yankees Fans Ready for Anthony Volpe, Go Thank Kris Bryant”
by Drew Duffy 3/27/23
I spent some time a few months ago researching more about the nuances of MLB Service time for players. If any are unaware, the current system is pretty complex. But I will try to simplify briefly, service time determines benefits. Players are awarded a day of service time every day they are on the active 26-man roster, or the injured list. The MLB defines a full year as 172 days of service. When players reach certain thresholds for years of service, they become eligible for certain benefits, such as arbitration, non-exclusive free agency, and eventually “10 and 5” rights. Many players hope to eventually reach non-exclusive free agency to test their market value, while clubs hope to maximize the play of their roster at the smallest financial commitment possible. This is just the way of the business. Now that we have a rough idea of service time, we now can understand why clubs manipulate the time to benefit themselves, and why players are motivated to accrue as much as possible for their own benefit.
So what does Kris Bryant have to do with this? I stumbled upon an article from Jesse Rogers at ESPN where he wrote about Kris Bryant’s Rookie of the Year Season in 2015. To summarize, Bryant failed to make the big league team out of Spring Training, though many knew he was ready. The roadblock was service time. By holding Bryant in the minors for just two weeks, he would come up short of the necessary time to accrue a full year of service, basically pushing back his free agency an entire league year. Under the 2022 CBA, the MLBPA pushed for a change to this practice, as teams were stashing their young players in the minors to hold their service time and earn another year of control. In the previous system, teams had all the control. Now, it is a much more fair dynamic between clubs and players.
The new CBA states that “no matter when a player comes up from the minors, he'll be awarded a full year of service if he finishes first or second in Rookie of the Year voting”(ESPN). This allows players to be rewarded for an exceptional season on the field, while benefiting their careers as well. There are also incentives for teams to place their prospects on the Opening Day roster. The article continues by noting, “a player who receives a full year of service time and finishes in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting will earn his team an extra draft pick coming after the first round”(ESPN). In short, the league created ways for both players and teams to benefit from great production from young stars, which is an aspect of the game that the league would have been negligent in continuing to ignore.
So, in steps Anthony Volpe. Just yesterday, Volpe, who is the Yankees top prospect at age 21, was told that he in fact made the Opening Day roster. He has an immediate chance to become an impact bat in the lineup while growing as a defender at a seemingly impossible shortstop position in the Bronx. From all accounts, he is ready for this opportunity. The Yankees of the past have rarely called up top prospects for the Opening Day roster, and while every case is not apples to apples, the new incentive in the CBA undoubtedly plays a factor. The Mariners for instance, are getting pick #29 in the 2023 MLB Draft for Julio Rodriguez’s winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022.
Volpe will likely be penciled in as the Opening Day starter at shortstop. Everyone already benefits in this situation. Volpe is living out his lifelong dream of dawning the pinstripes and breaking camp with the big league roster. The Yankees have put the best player for the shortstop position on the team, without hesitation for service time or external factors. The MLB is capitalizing on yet another young player who is ready to become a household name for fans and thus growing the game. The new CBA agreement is paying dividends for all parties involved in the game, and Kris Bryant is the poster boy for the experiment. This is the Yankees “go thank Kris Bryant moment”, as he paved the way for players coming up to just worry about the production on the field. The Yankees visit Coors Field immediately following the 2023 All Star Game in Seattle. Maybe Volpe will make it a point to seek out Bryant and share a few words. In the meantime, it is up to Volpe to cement his place in the infield for the Yankees and prove to everyone why he deserves to play in the Bronx. He has an entire fanbase behind him, and a generation of younger players who will hope to emulate his success. Thank You Kris Bryant. Good Luck Anthony Volpe.
Make the Days Count. Let’s Go Yankees.
Referenced:
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time / https://www.mlb.com/draft/2023/order
Aaron Judge is Back! - "Can't Overpay this Guy"
“Can’t Overpay This Guy”
by Drew Duffy 12/7/22
After a little flurry of “ninth-inning” antics, the reigning American League MVP is back where he rightfully belongs: The Bronx. Though there was some late push from the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres, the Yankees prevailed in the sweepstakes for Aaron Judge. Though to a lifelong Yankee fan, this seems natural and expected. I will say that though some rumors last night worried me a little bit, there was a large part of me that knew the Yankees could not afford to lose their best player, the face of the franchise (and arguably of baseball), as well as the future captain of the most decorated and storied North American sports franchise. Judge is more than what he produces on the field, and it will need to be recognized that he is being paid as such. His new contract will carry him through his age 39 season, which may be a drastic drop off in production from the past seasons that baseball fans have enjoyed. That is the nature of the negotiations. It is the same idea that rings true with all players on long contracts that will carry them past their “prime”. Though I think that Judge is different. Judge, on paper too, is not a normal human being. He quite literally jumps off the page due to his physical imposition. But for Yankee fans who have watched him over the past few years, he is far from just a physical specimen. He is the epitome of what you want your teammate and captain to be. He takes blame, he is quick to defend teammates, and from what we’ve heard on the inside, he is not afraid to hold his teammates accountable. Hmmm, sound familiar to anyone else in recent Yankee history? Ah yes, maybe say, Derek Jeter!
This is what excites me most about the future of the Yankees as a team and really as a brand. Being born in 2001, my lifetime just missed the Yankees dynasty run, though I watched at a young age and admired Jeter. I hopped on the train towards the tail-end of his career and still felt a deep and meaningful connection with the player. For Judge, he connects a little stronger. He made his MLB debut when I was 14 and has been the figure that I have watched as I have begun to understand and appreciate the power and importance of intangibles in professinal athletes. Don’t get me wrong, I still go crazy whenever he connects for a mammoth home run. Though what I have started to respect more is the way he goes about his business. He embraces the challenge of playing in the most competitive sports market in the world and lives under a microscope that many cannot even fathom. The way he handles this pressure is admirable and really shocking. He is truly a “pro’s pro” and the numbers on his contract signify that just as much as his baseball talent in my opinion. Over the past few months, I have read and listened a lot to reporters who speculated on the Judge contract and his potential landing destination. A question that circled constantly was “Do the Yankees need Judge or does Judge need the Yankees?”. Well, I think both. The spotlight in New York has offered Judge a great opportunity to market himself as a player and person. The Yankees would not have been in any competitive winning position this past year if it weren’t for Judge’s success at the plate and in the field. So maybe it was a perfect match again. But what excites me most about this continued partnership is the role that Judge will play for so many fans of the team. He has already captivated nearly everyone within the fanbase but more Yankee fans that are being introduced to the game or the team will see him as their Derek Jeter. This seemingly continuous cycle is unique to the Yankees and is part of what makes their organization so storied and beloved (or hated for some). Judge had said all along that he wanted to remain in pinstripes, and at the end of the day, he meant what he said. The Yankees could ill afford to let the player that Aaron Judge is to slip through their fingers, but on-field talent is replaceable to a certain extent. What would have been catastrophic is losing the leader and person that Judge is, and the way he represents himself and the organization. So as we look forward to Judge being named captain over the next few days, let us also remember that the zeroes on his paycheck are there just as much for the man and role model he has become and will continue to be over the next nine years. Let’s go get 28.
Go Yanks
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