2022 Gold Glove Predictions

2022 Gold Glove Predictions and Explanation

 Drew Duffy (October 21, 2022)

With the announcement of the 2022 Rawlings Gold Glove Recipients coming out yesterday, I used my defensive output model to predict who will bring home the hardware in November. I do have a few caveats in my decision making. Pitchers are difficult to use in my model since they do not have a third publicly accessible statistic to use in evaluation. I could use DRS for pitchers and their weighted errors, though that may not be enough to justify who should win the awards, so I have left them out. For first baseman, I know that the selection criteria values the player’s ability to pick the ball on throws from other infielders, another difficult ability to quantify, though DRS likely accounts for such factors. Still, this is a little difficult to predict and show in my model so keep that in mind. Finally, the new installment of the “Utility” Gold Glove Recipient is hard to quantify since there is a lot of overlap at position and it is difficult to value a player who may be split his time between three positions at 50:30:20 compared to one who splits the time at 33:33:33 (for example). With this said, I do love the new idea of a “Utility” Gold Glover, well done MLB. 

2022 GG Winners based on my model for Defensive Output (AL recipient, NL recipient)

P: Not enough data on pitchers in my model

C: Jose Trevino (New York Yankees),  J.T. Realmuto (Philadelphia Phillies)

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays), Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves)

2B: Jonathan Schoop (Detroit Tigers), Brendan Rodgers (Colorado Rockies)

3B: José Ramírez (Cleveland Guardians), Nolan Arenado (St. Louis Cardinals)

SS: Jeremy Peña (Houston Astros), Miguel Rojas (Miami Marlins)

LF: Steven Kwan (Cleveland Guardians), Ian Happ (Chicago Cubs)

CF: Myles Straw (Cleveland Guardians), Trent Grisham (San Diego Padres)

RF: Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins), Mookie Betts (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Utility: Working on a better way to evaluate these types of players

There were some close races and in my opinion, some snubs from the finalist selections:

At 1B, CJ Cron (Rockies) was ranked 3rd on my list and should have been added as a finalist for the NL. Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles) graded as 4th overall and the first in the AL for me, he should have been there as well. For 2B, there will be a competitive race in the AL as Schoop (Tigers) and Gimenez (Guardians) are #1 & #2, respectively. 3B has appropriate finalists though cases can be made for different selections in the AL, maybe Gio Urshela (Twins). SS is interesting here. The National League race should be competitive with Miguel Rojas and Dansby Swanson (and I would have nominated Nico Hoerner (Cubs) over Ha-Seong Kim (Padres)). Though the American League finalists do not represent the best fielders under my model. My three AL finalists would have been Jorge Mateo (Orioles), Andrew Velazquez (Angels), and Jeremy Peña (Astros). Since Peña is included, I have him as the recipient of the Gold Glove, but I do not see Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) and Carlos Correa (Twins) being in the running here as they graded out at #10 and #18, respectively. LF with Steven Kwan (Guardians) and Ian Happ (Cubs) should be good selections at this position. CF is locked up as well with Myles Straw (Guardians) and Trent Grisham (Padres). In RF, Max Kepler (Twins) will look to win his first Gold Glove and Mookie Betts (Dodgers) will try to add number 6 to his collection. I am not sure of the selection committee’s choosing of Juan Soto (Padres) as a National League finalist, as he ranked last in my list, with four other NL defenders ahead of him.