Royals

Bobby Witt’s Drastic Defensive Improvement

by Drew Duffy 8/6/23

In a season that has been one to forget for the Kansas City Royals, finding silver linings may be difficult. But, look no further than Bobby Witt Jr.’s improved defensive metrics. Last year, as a rookie, Witt had some struggles adapting to the defensive portion of the major league game. In 2022, he posted a -11 OAA (Outs Above Average) and a -22 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). Baseball Savant’s new Fielding Run Value marked him at -8. This put him at 667 in the MLB last year.

This season has been a huge improvement for Witt, as he is grading out much better amongst available metrics. He currently sits at 7th in Fielding Run Value with 7. His OAA is at 12 and his DRS at -1. It is important to note that all metrics have different weighted factors and can skew towards certain individuals. Without looking at his rankings, the improvement is staggering.

2022 / -11 OAA , -22 DRS, -8 FRV

2023 / 12 OAA, -1 DRS, 7 FRV

I think a lot of the success that Witt is finding in the field this year could actually be credited to the shift ban. Witt is seeing all of his time at shortstop this year. Last year, he sprinkled in some games at third base as well. The way that Witt is now aligned in the field is helping him in making these defensive plays. With the new rule of having two fielders on each side of second base, Witt is becoming more comfortable in his shortstop role. We can see with the two charts below how Witt is lining up before the ball is put into play.

2023

2022

An area that he suffered with last season was ground balls “Toward SS/3B Hole”. For Witt and most other shortstops, this is making a play on their backhand in the hole or working their body around the ball to square up to first base. In 2022, Witt posted a -5 OAA on these balls. In 2023, he is a staggering 9 OAA.

There are a number of factors that can contribute to Bobby Witt’s recent success at shortstop in 2023. Comfort, experience, more defined positioning, even confidence, can all play a huge role in contributing to his success defensively. In a season that has been dreadful for the Royals, (though they are seeing some more success recently), Witt’s maturation on the defensive side is something to have hope for in the future. Hopefully he continues his progress and will thrust himself into being a perennial Gold Glove candidate in the American League.

(picture: Getty Images)

JJ Picollo First Draft as Head Huncho: Outlook on 2023 Draft

by Drew Duffy 4/11/23

The Royals first three picks for this year’s draft are all in the top 70. They hold the 8th, 44th, and 65th pick in the upcoming first year player draft in July, which will be an important one to continue the rebuild of the club. These draft selections are in prime positions for impact players to be taken and developed under the new system of JJ Picollo. The 2023 draft will be Picollo’s first as the man in charge, even though he has had a large voice in prior drafts with former GM Dayton Moore. If last year was any indication as to how the Royals may draft this year, it seems like Royals may opt to go with a college bat in the first two rounds. I am a firm believer that every selection in MLB drafts should be designated to best player available, regardless of position or organizational need. I am not sure how the internal discussions of MLB front offices are, but I think that there is just too much time between draft day and debut to draft based on necessity. Prospects pan out or they don’t and there are moves to be made in the intermediate. By this logic, I have looked at some prospects who may be available at each of the first 5 picks for the Royals as they look to get value in this draft class.

R1, P8: Jacob Gonzales, SS, Ole Miss

Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

Enrique Bradfield Jr, OF, Vandy

~ I think this pick will be a position player, especially one at a premium position, similar to Gavin Cross a year ago. ~

R2, P44: Ryan Lasko, OF, Rutgers

Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor (IL)

Levi Wells, RHP, Texas State

~ This would be a good pick to make a safe bet on someone with upside, such as Lasko or Wells, but if they choose the potential route, like they did with RHP Ben Kudrna in 2021, Dillon Head would be a good selection as well. ~

CB-3, P66: Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, FAU

T.J. Nichols, RHP, Arizona

~ There is a chance that Schanuel is not still here at 66 given the seasons he is having but he is a good potential name to keep an eye on for the 2023 draft. ~

While I do not have extensive scouting knowledge, in fact I have very little, I feel as though some of these names could fit in with what the Royals are looking for in potential prospects. Obviously some teams may value these players higher or lower based on different criteria, though the point that it will be important for the Royals to maximize these selections cannot be lost here. Looking forward to a great 2023 draft!

All Eyes on Chapman in KC this Summer

by Drew Duffy 4/11/23

Royals first year relief pitcher, Aroldis Chapman is no stranger to the midwest or to having his name swirl around mock trades during the season. Chapman had an unceremonious end to his tenure with the New York Yankees last fall, though his resurgence in Kansas City could lead him back to a playoff contender come summertime.

This offseason, J. J. Picollo signed Chapman to a 1 yr/ $3.75 million contract this offseason as a de facto “prove it” deal for both sides. Chapman, though only 4 games into the season, has shown that he still has some bullets left in the chamber. His 4SFB and Slider are back in action, and he ranks near the top in all advanced metrics for relief pitchers. While it is still early and there are four months until the trade deadline, Chapman’s early numbers show that he can still be a valuable bullpen piece for a contending team during a playoff push.

Another factor that benefits both Chapman and the Royals is the lack of reliever depth who are pending UFA. He has the chance to be the best pending LHRP in the trade market this summer, and definitely at the most valuable price point. These combined factors will make Chapman's resurgence this season something to watch in Kansas City. While the Royals are going to benefit from his production on the mound, they might do even better in flipping him for prospects this summer, aiding in their rebuilding efforts. Stay tuned for updates on Chapman.

One Week Recap of the KCR: We Need Some Hits!

by Drew Duffy 4/6/23

Well, the Royals are off to let's say, a slow start. Through the first week of the season they sit with a record of 1-6, currently tied for the worst in the league. After the last series, there was hope that the bats would come alive against the Blue Jays. This week, the Royals scratched across nine runs in the lone win coming on Monday and three runs today. There has just been too much inconsistency on the offensive side of the ball for there to be any hope of winning games.

The offense ranks dead last in the league in runs, total bases, and OPS+, among other categories. The bats just have not come to play yet for the Royals. While it is still early in the season and there is time for a turnaround, the clock may be ticking if the Royals have any hope in competing for the division or a wild card spot. There are simply too many good teams in the American League who are vying for postseason berths, and the Royals must keep step with them in the early weeks.

The team has really been Jekyll and Hyde, as the pitching staff is carrying most of the load for the team right now. The pitching staff is above league average in runs allowed and FIP. While the pitching staff has not necessarily been “lights out”, they are certainly doing enough to allow for more than just a single win.

While they are reliant on young talent to be making an impact in the big leagues right now, there has been very little production from the youth on the Royals. Veteran catcher, Salvador Perez, leads the team with a .300 OBP and .263 AVG. While there are better stats to evaluate, I feel as though OPS right now is a little skewed, due to a single homerun affecting the metric in the early season. Really, the infield of the Royals has been abysmal through the first week, but there is still hope to turn it around.

I would be interested to see if the Royals begin to deploy a different lineup, based on the one week sample they gained and how poorly some of these players are hitting in certain slots. The Royals are close to the bottom of the league in Pit/PA, which could be one factor that is contributing to the lack of offensive production. While not a full on determinant, some of the better players and teams in the league are cognizant of seeing more pitches. In my eyes, there needs to be a little bit of a jumble in the lineup, at the least to see if anything comes from people batting in different spots.

This is what I would throw out tomorrow in San Francisco against RHP Alex Cobb:

L - Nicky Lopez (4)

R - Bobby Witt (6)

R - Salvador Perez (2)

L - MJ Melendez (DH)
R - Vinnie Pasquantino (3)

L - Kyle Isbel (8)

R - Matt Duffy (5)

L - Jackie Bradley Jr (7)

R - Nate Eaton (9)

The Royals do not have a huge luxury in who they choose to start or sit these days, though this lineup would do a few things:

Give a new look:

Right now, Bobby Witt is not performing in the leadoff spot, and while he is a great player and a cornerstone of the franchise, there are growing pains. Moving him down a spot will allow him to take some pressure off and see more pitches. Nicky Lopez in the 1 slot gives a good at bat for the guys following behind and will force Cobb to work, as he does not swing at first pitches and has an above average contact %.

New Heart as well:

In my configuration, the heart of the lineup has a little bit of a new identity. Perez, Melendez, Pasquantino give Cobb and other relievers some difficulty in attacking, as Perez and Pasquantino are hard to strikeout and Melendez has similar LD/FB/GB percentages. If Lopez and Witt are able to reach, there will be heightened attention paid in attacking these three based on their tendencies, leading to more nipping on corners and using pitches to induce weak contact, in fear of allowing a big hit. All three players would benefit from getting a little protection from the prior batters, which can lead to an increase in production and confidence.

Balance:

The Royals benefit from their diverse handedness at the plate, especially in my lineup. Cobb has similar splits against RHB and LHB, though he tends to be slightly worse against LHB (makes sense due to his throwing hand). But, 1-9 in the lineup does not go more than three batters without throwing a different hand to the pitcher. This balance allows for the lineup to work with each other and support the batter ahead of them. Not letting Cobb get in a groove tomorrow will be vital in waking up the bats as an entire lineup.

Solving the issue of the lack of offense will not be brought about by changing the lineup alone, obviously the players have to play and perform. My offerings here will shift some of the mindset issues that could be hindering some players, as well as give an experiment to see just how effective this balance in both skillset and handedness can be for the Royals going forward. There is never a bad time to break a losing streak, and the Royals are relying on it coming tomorrow as they hope to spoil the Giants’ home opener in the Bay.

Thanks for reading! As always, leave your ideas or comments with me on Twitter or through email!

Series Breakdown Twins vs Royals

Series Breakdown, Twins vs Royals

by Drew Duffy 4/2/23

The Kansas City Royals dropped all three games in their opening series of the 2023 season against division foe, Minnesota Twins. The main problem this weekend for the Royals was a lack of offensive production. The Royals only managed to squeeze across 4 runs the entire weekend, which is just not enough to win games. It is still early and the bats should come around, but the Royals can ill-afford to have that kind of production in divisional games. There should not be an overreaction made about this series and the prospects of having a winning season are still on the table, but they need to give their fans some baseball to be interested in watching. Lot of ball to be played, but let’s get the offense going a little bit here!

Telling stats:

Attendance-

The Royals drew an opening day crowd of 38,351 on Thursday afternoon. In the next two games, they brought in 16,633 on Saturday, and 14,589 on Sunday, respectively. Again, there is no need to over react from a series sweep, but the Royals need to make the city believe in them, and winning will help to do so. There is another step to be taken in KC and winning on the field will cause everyone to pay attention.

Young Stars-

Bobby Witt Jr is 0-10 with 3K and 1BB. Vinnie Pasquantino is 1-10 with 2K and 2BB. A combined 1-20 with 5Ks from your team’s #2 and #3 hole hitters doesn’t help, but they will turn it around. When their production picks up, so too will the team’s overall offense.

Bullpen-

The bullpen had a relatively solid weekend for the Royals. In a combined 11.2 innings, the boys struck out 14 and gave up 12 hits and 4 BB amounting to 5 earned runs across 3 games.. Obviously, not a completely dominant weekend for the bullpen, but very serviceable and would have benefitted from some run support. One huge positive was Aroldis Chapman’s outing on Saturday, where he hit 102.5 MPH on his sinker and sat near 100 MPH on his 4SFB. He induced 5 swing and misses, while striking out the side on 13 pitches. Really encouraging sign from him.

Looking ahead:

The Toronto Blue Jays come into Kansas City this week for a four game series after losing 2 of 3 in St. Louis. The Blue Jays lineup is potent and all of their main bats have started the year strong. 5 of their 9 players are batting at .300 + but no one on their team has hit the long ball yet. Hopefully that continues this week for the Royals. Their pitching staff did not have a great series against the strong lineup in St. Louis and it could really be a good time for the Kansas City bats to come alive this week. But having said that, the four starters this week slated to pitch in Kauffman Stadium are established arms in RHP Jose Berrios, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Alek Manoha, and RHP Kevin Gausman getting the ball on getaway day. The Royals will need to pick up their pitching this week and get on the right track in the first week of April.

Overreaction:

Yes, the Royals will see .500 this season, it is going to make tomorrow’s game incredibly important, but this team has the potential to be very solid when two or three bats on offense are clicking. Be patient…

Star of the Series:

Aroldis Chapman LHP

Onto Toronto!

Pitching Breakdown for Royals 3/30/23 : Opening Day

The Royals dropped the opening game of their 2023 season to the Minnesota Twins, though it wasn’t for a lack of pitching. The final score of the game was 2-0 in front of a sellout crowd in Kansas City. Here is the box for the Royals pitching staff on 3/30/23:

The pitchers were honestly great, especially out of the bullpen. Here’s a quick breakdown on each pitcher’s best and worst pitch type from the game (based on FanGraphs weighted run value):

Best Worst

Greinke - Changeup (1.1) 4 Seam (-1.1)

Garrett - 4 Seam (-0.1) Slider (-0.7)

Coleman - 4 Seam (-0.09) Slider (0.5)

Cuas - Slider (0.6) 4 Seam (0.2)

Hernandez- Slider (0.3) Split Finger (-0.01)

★ Jose Cuas, with a solid start to the year so far, fanning 3 in one inning of relief…a lot to build on here. He's my dark horse!

Royals Repertoire Report (Beta Idea)

by Drew Duffy 3/28/23

I have been looking into ways to quantify the effectiveness of a pitcher’s repertoire by looking at pitch velocities from fastest to slowest pitch. Here I have chopped up the Royals 2023 projected pitching staff into their pitch types and average velocities for each. In the far right column I have taken the difference between their highest and lowest pitches. While this idea is still in its infancy, I am hoping to make a more comprehensive view of a pitcher’s ability to mix pitches effectively. I think there is still a large way to evaluate pitchers based on velocities, especially when batters are seeing huge differences within at bats. In this initial experiment, we see that Greinke, Yarbrough, Heasley, and Coleman have a large delta in velocities. I am excited to look a little deeper into how different pitch mixes, velocities, usages, and effectiveness factors into the usefulness of a repertoire.

Potential All Star in KC? Jose Cuas Player Profile 2023

Potential All Star in KC? Jose Cuas player profile 2023

by Drew Duffy 3/28/23

Jose Cuas, a right handed reliever in the Royals bullpen is destined to make the opening day roster now in 2023. I have been following Cuas since last summer’s trade deadline and am a believer in his stuff. Cuas has a lot of soft contact stuff, which leads to a lot of swing and misses, where he can take the next step this year. He can mix his pitches well and he needs more confidence in his sinker to make it his best pitch, especially against right handed batters. He has had some trouble throwing it well for strikes and often leaves it over the plate more often than not but he has the potential for great K #s this year if he finds the right balance in his Sinker/Slider combo. It helps that former Yankee closer Arodlis Chapman is now in the clubhouse, where Cuas can see firsthand how the mix between those two pitches has helped Chapman in the past. He has hovered around a 1.02 WHIP in his last three full minor league seasons, before getting the call up to KC last summer. In a stronger bullpen this year, I think Cuas has a lot of potential to take the next step in his development and progress into one of the most feared pitchers coming out of the Royals bullpen.

Daniel Lynch and Vinnie Pasquantino - From the River City to Kansas City

From the River City to Kansas City

by Drew Duffy 3/28/23

The Kansas City Royals Opening Day roster will feature two products who grew up nearly 1,100 miles away from Kansas City, in Virginia’s state capital of Richmond. Both Daniel Lynch and Vinnie Pasquantino had unique tracks to the major leagues, though there was a little bit of overlap for the two 804 products. Daniel Lynch, coming out of Douglass Freeman High School, decided to attend school about an hour northwest in Charlottesville, pitching for the then defending national champions, Virginia Cavaliers. Vinnie Pasquantino prepped at James River High School, just twelve miles away from Freeman, across The River. Vinnie took his talents to the 757, which many refer to as the best area code in the state, and competed collegiately at Old Dominion University.

Being separated by only one graduating class, I am sure that the two were familiar with each other prior to their professional days. I took a look back at some game logs between Pasquantino and Lynch, and they unfortunately never faced off live for their collegiate teams. Fast forward a few impressive years later and Daniel Lynch is being taken by the Kansas City Royals with the 34th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. The Royals received this pick as compensation for Eric Hosmer signing with the Padres that offseason. Then, one year later, it was time for Pasquantino to hear the call from the Royals, as he was selected with the 319 overall selection in the 11th round. Lynch was once rated as high as #3 in the Royals system in 2021, and made his debut later that year. Vinnie briefly broke into the MLB’s top 100 prospects list (maybe for about a week in the middle of 2022), before being called up following a trade that sent Carlos Santana to the Mariners.

Both players had slightly different trajectories to reach the big leagues, but there is some awesome overlap to talk about for a Virginia boy like myself. It is always great to see local products showing out on the biggest stage of the game, and making a name for themselves and their state. Daniel Lynch and Vinnie Pasquantino will look to take the Royals to the next step in their rebuild as a franchise, vying for a playoff spot in a competitive AL Central division. There is nothing stopping these two Virginia guys from continuing their success in the Heart of America, and we all are cheering from their home state.

Go Royals, Virginians are Behind You.

Referenced:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinnie_Pasquantino

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Lynch_(baseball)

https://virginiasports.com/player/daniel-lynch/

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2021/top100/

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pasquvi01.shtml

https://odusports.com/sports/baseball/roster/vinnie-pasquantino/4037

Thoughts on the Benintendi Trade, 8 Months Later

Who won the Benintendi Trade?

by Drew Duffy 3/27/23

Being a lifelong Yankees fan, I was very happy when the Yankees and Royals agreed on terms to trade All-Star Left Fielder Andrew Benintendi in exchange for RHP Beck Way, RHP Chandler Champlain and LHP T.J. Sikkema. The Yankees immediately filled a pressing need in left-field while not giving up any of their top pitching prospects. At first glance, this was a great trade for the Yankees, who are in “win-now” mode. The issue was Benintendi’s health, as he only played 33 games in pinstripes, batting an unimpressive .254 with a .735 OPS. His tenure with the Yankees was unfortunately not what many had hoped. I think that there would have been better production if he maintained his health, especially if he was adding a left-handed presence to a righty dominant lineup. He also brought flexibility for where to place him in the batting order, giving coverage for some of the best powers in the sport in Judge and Stanton. But, the Yankees never got to fully experience this, and Benintendi left to head to the southside of Chicago on a 5yr/$75 million contract with the White Sox. For the Royals, they got three young arms back in the trade.

Chandler Champlain finished the season in High-A and got roughed up a little bit after the trade. The Royals will look to see great improvements in the 2023 season, as he pitched to a measly 2.156 WHIP in 32 innings with the organization thus far. He has around 3 ½ pitches right now, but he is athletic in stature that bodes well for his development. Already 23 years old, his time is crunching to become an effective arm as a backend starter or bullpen piece, though he should advance to better competition this season in the minors.

T.J. Sikkema is an interesting dissection here. The 24 year old has ties to the area, coming from the University of Missouri. His approach to pitching is a little unorthodox and he is not going to “wow” you with his mechanics, though he manipulates them to gain advantages. He is the 23rd prospect in the Royals system as of today and I think he will slowly climb that page after some more ball this spring. Sikkema has a good pitch mix and really showed well in the AFL, which is encouraging for the Royals. From my view, his delivery looks casual in a good way. He does not look like he is overexerting on pitches, which allows him to mix up his arm slots and speeds. I think Sikkema could be primed for a breakout year with the Royals if his development continues well and could be a solid LRP in KC.

Beck Way came to the Royals as the biggest chip in the trade. Way, who currently sits at 12th in the Royals pipeline, profiles as a starter if he can clean up some command issues. Beck often gets swings and misses with his pitches but has a tough time finding the zone consistently. He showed flashes of strong strikeout performances following the trade in High A. I will be interested to see his development once he reaches AA, as the competition is more sound and his performance will need to continue to improve. His athletic frame is enticing for the Royals as he develops and cleans up his control, especially with their history in long pitchers. The average height for pitchers on the 40-man is a notch under 6’ 4”, right where Beck Way stands.

Overall, I think the trade was good for both sides, though the Royals obviously have more to count on with the development of their prospects. Benintendi unfortunately could not get healthy for the Yankees’ playoff push, and the club failed to re-sign him after heading forward with different priorities this winter. As for the Royals, they did not get a gaudy return, though there is potential for these three arms to develop into solid role players within the organization, or obviously future trade chips. I think both teams made out well for what their original intentions were and the Royals will continue to do their best in making the most out of Champlain, Sikkema, and Way. I am hoping to see all three pitchers hit the ground running in a few weeks and continue their development in their first full season with the Royals Organization.

Referenced:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/royals/

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andrew-benintendi-643217?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=champl000cha

https://www.mlb.com/royals/roster/40-man

JBJ in KC - How Jackie Bradley Jr. is Making the Most out of a Productive Spring

JBJ in KC

by Drew Duffy 3/27/23

Jackie Bradley Jr might be a great stopgap for the Royals outfield. With Drew Waters sidelined temporarily with an injury, there is a great opportunity for Bradley Jr. to crack the Opening Day roster and make an impact with the Royals. While Bradley has been underwhelming in his past two full seasons, there is hope for his improvement. One telling stat is his expected values on certain hitting categories. According to FanGraphs, Bradley had higher xAVG, xSLG, and xwOBA in 2021 and 2022 than what his actual averages indicate. Bradley is still working to find his ability to connect on fastballs, which will help him tremendously in these stats. His production against fastballs has been an issue over the past two seasons, though he has historically been a stronger fastball hitter. His last two seasons with the Red Sox in 2019 and 2020 were much better against the 4 seamer. He is facing a slightly faster fastball on average which could be contributing to his struggles, though he has been much better this spring with the Royals. The interesting point with Bradley is that last year he faced the fewest % of FB in his career, seeing an uptick in sliders and changeups. He will have to make slight adjustments to make sure that he is seeing the fastball when it is coming, but if he does, there is a strong case to be made for Bradley’s hitting stats to see a bump up. Another factor that should play in his success, and as we have seen so far this spring, is the lack of shifting by defensive teams. While “only” being shifted on 64% of his at bats a season ago, and not drastically in my eyes. The infield often moved another person to the right side, though the outfield played mostly straight up, maybe slightly shaded to the pull side for the left-handed hitter. His power numbers have really dropped off, though in a role where he will need to get on base more, this should not be too big of an issue. The Royals lineup is better than it has been in the past three years from top to bottom, and inserting Bradley will add a left handed bat to the mix, while also acting as a stopgap for younger players to heal and develop. Bradley is still elite defensively in the outfield and would be a great bench piece as well if younger guys shove him out of regular playing time. His spring at bats have been impressive and are great indications for the kind of production that the Royals are hoping to see from the veteran. Drew Waters might be the only prospect that has real potential for sustained at bats in Kansas City this season, but other minor league players are on the rise and will be here before we know it. If the Royals can get some newfound value out of Jackie Bradley Jr, then it will be a job well done by JJ Picollo and the Baseball Ops team.

References:

BaseballSavant

FanGraphs

Baseball Reference

MLB.com

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