Where Does the Perfect Balance Lie for MLB Draft Pick Trading? (response to Joel Sherman article)
by Drew Duffy 7/9/23
Joel Sherman, writer for the New York Post, wrote an article yesterday about the need for the MLB to allow teams to trade their inherit draft picks. He draws parallels to other professional leagues, who allow for the trading of picks throughout their draft processes. He claims that the access of trading draft picks would create more uncertainty and intrigue around the event, which would in turn, create more excited and invested fans. While this is hard to deny, the MLB switching to the trading of draft picks will have to be an idea that should require hard set boundaries. I think Sherman's article is a little too idealistic and a tad unreasonable in some instances, so I will try to make my case here:
If we were to poll sports fans on which draft (out of the 4 major US sports leagues) executes the most efficiently, clearly, and fairly, many answers would point to the NFL. Personally, I share the opinion that the NFL does a good job in valuing individual team needs, where one player is targeted for their “fit” in a certain system or scheme. They also make the trade process comprehensible for fans, as the common trades leading up to and during draft day are “pick for pick”. 22 of the 23 trades in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft were “pick for pick”, with the only one including a player being the one that netted the Carolina Panthers the first overall selection.
Meanwhile in the NBA, there are layers to exchanges that make it difficult for the common fan to keep track of these trades as they happen. For example, the trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Suns in March read as follows: “The Nets sent Durant and T.J. Warren to Phoenix for Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, four first-round picks and a 2028 draft swap”. 2 players to Phoenix, 3 players back to Brooklyn, along with 4 first round picks (which have to be in non-consecutive years), and an option to swap selections in 2028.
My point in laying some of these different ideas out is to show how difficult the intricacies of trading are for leagues, and steps that the MLB will undoubtedly have to consider before implementing trades in the MLB draft. I do not think that Sherman appropriately lays out his ideas for what the MLB draft trading process should achieve. For example, he uses the Yankees and Dodgers, two of the most storied and successful teams in the business, as bases of one of his arguments. He notes that, due to their perennial success, both of these teams have been accustomed to picking later in rounds and missing on the “top” players. But then he almost contradicts himself too in saying that MLB talent is found littered around the draft, and that some of the best players are not the ones with the top picks. His implication, as I see it, is that the big spenders, such as the Dodgers and Yankees, would be willing to part with organizational capital to acquire certain players in the draft, or sell their picks to teams who are willing to accommodate major league improvements. If this were the case, for example, would the Cubs be willing to sacrifice Cody Bellinger for an unproven Yankee draft pick slot (among other things), for a player who may not even reach the majors for another four years? I do not see that happening.
I agree with him in the sense that teams should be able to maneuver their draft selections in hopes of filling organizational holes and positional needs, but Sherman’s belief that the allowance of trading in the draft will cause some teams to move mountains for certain players is a bit far-stretched for me. Say for instance, the New York Yankees LOVED Paul Skenes in the 2023 draft. In the hypothetical draft-trade world, the Yankees would offer a top 2 or 3 team a massive haul to acquire the selection to draft him. That would mean that the Yankees surrender prospects, valuable established players, and draft picks for Skenes. But as we know, sometimes the value of the player may not be worth what the price paid was, and by nature of the process, it is too big of a gamble for some teams to cough up so much value for so much unknown.
As a baseball fan, I appreciate and enjoy the entirety of the drafting process. First, evaluating talent, then drafting the player and developing him within the organization with hopes of having him reach the big leagues with the same club. Some top prospects don’t pan out, some low round selections become all stars, it is all part of the imperfect game of baseball. I would welcome the implementation of trading standard draft picks during the draft, but with some obvious limitations.
If I were commissioner, there would have to be certain processes put in place to make sure that trading draft picks was effective and fair. A lot is made about the signing bonus money pool allotted to teams and how much control both team and player have in coming to a certain contract. Some players have more leverage in negotiations, in other cases the teams have the control. I would offer these two ideas in hopes of balancing the ability to trade MLB draft picks. 1) There would need to be, as Sherman mentions, “a hard-slotted system”, where the specific amount of money is what is given to each player at that selection. 2) I would propose that teams need to retain at least one pick in every other round (eg. a pick in the first/third rounds…no consecutive round trading) and no trade is allowed to contain future draft considerations, as to avoid the messiness of what many NBA franchises experience. The NBA throws around first-round picks like its candy on Halloween, with teams going deep into the future to accommodate the needs of the present. Not only could this cause detriment towards the teams who are losing the picks in the future, it also creates a power advantage to the teams who hold the most draft picks, as they stockpile them until a player of value becomes an interest to them.
Again, I do wonder how much the trading of draft picks would impact certain teams’ strategies and actions surrounding the MLB Draft. With the volatility in draft selections, and the uncertainty that comes with each, it would be a difficult science to pin down on what the appropriate price to pay is for a certain selection. As of right now, I personally think that Sherman is a little misguided in his assumption that many teams would jump at the opportunity to take a player at “x” draft pick. Sure, everyone in the MLB would love a Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes, or Wyatt Langford in their system. Sure, these players can become all-stars and franchise players, but what would teams be willing to sacrifice to get this singular player. While a front line starting pitcher is a wish for every club, this player only throws the ball every fifth day. An MVP in the lineup still gets out around 7/10 of the time. While these players make significant impacts, and their absences are missed by their teams (just ask the Yankees), the one player saving the franchise is not realistic in my eyes. NFL and NBA teams are able to get away with zeroing in on one player at a certain position because of the nature of their sports. MLB teams need much more than one player to show up every night.
In all, I think that allowing MLB teams to trade their draft picks, while implementing my limitations, would be a good thing for the game, but I would be cautious in assuming it would be the saving grace of the draft process. Sherman believes that the MLB could use more excitement around the event, which is true, but I think there is only so much you can get out of this event. The prospects in the 2023 Draft are considered to be some of the best to come out in years, but it may be another couple of years before we see the showcase of talent on MLB broadcasts and in big-league stadiums. That is not a draft issue, that is the reality of the sport right now. Splashy trades for draft prospects would bring fans in and create headlines, but would teams be willing to take those risks? That remains to be seen. In the meantime, let us all enjoy the 2023 MLB Draft for what it currently is, an event that takes months of preparation and thinking, but above all, where dreams come true and a whole journey starts anew...
2023 MLB Mock Based on Draft Tendency Work
by Drew Duffy 7/3/23
I decided to take a bit of a leap and create a 2023 MLB Mock Draft based on some findings that I calculated for each team's past history in the draft. I used Baseball Savant's draft tool to create an aggregate list of each team, focusing in on where the players were selected from (high school or college) and positional tendency (pitcher or position player). While I have no experience as a scout, or someone who evaluates talent, I thought this could be a fun way to show some of the findings and create discussion around certain players. Mock Drafts are a fun and funny tool, with the MLB draft being arguably the hardest to predict for a number of reasons. Those included are subjective evaluations, organizational priorities based on models, sign-ability, slot bonus money, etc. Like all mocks, missing one pick can usually throw the rest into disarray, so I am by no means having high expectations in this mock. I took a look back at the 2022 mock drafts by MLB.com's, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, as well as The Atheltic's Keith Law. For reference, their success rate on the 1st round mock drafts were 13% for Callis, 6.6% for Mayo, and 13% for Law, and these guys do this for a living. Not knocking them on the performance of the mock, more so just a reiteration as to how hard it is at predicting what some teams will do in the draft. There may be a few more "locks" at the top of this year's draft, but organizations have different preferences and opinions on individual players, which could throw everything up in the air.
My decisions with most of these picks took into account three major factors: 1) Pick History by source (HS/College) , 2) Positional Lean for each source (Pitchers either from HS/College & Position Players either from HS/College), 3) Top 30 Prospects list as they stand currently for each respective team.
I am still a major proponent of taking the best available player in most cases, so putting a lot of stock in any of these three criteria only goes so far if there is clearly a better player available. This mock just shows some past tendencies of organizations in an effort to see who could fit best with what they have been opting to do in the past. Hope you all enjoy!!
MLB Draft: Sunday, July 9, 7 PM EST (ESPN)
Let's see if my draft tendency research leads to any findings on what some teams are looking for...!
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First a few big questions:
1. How will the Top 3 Shake Out?
2. Clark or Jenkins first off the board?
3. What does Picollo do in his first draft as GM for KC?
4. Will the Marlins take a bet on a Prep RHP?
5. How will the Mariners deal with and manipulate their draft capital?
Now let's dive in a little deeper:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pick: Paul Skenes RHP, LSU
History Shows: Pirates haven’t taken a college pitcher in the 1st round in the past five years, but Skenes is too good to pass up. Turn the card in without hesitation, similar with Gerrit Cole.
2. Washington Nationals - Dylan Crews OF, LSU
History Shows: Nationals took Elijah Green at 5 last year and Crews might add to their outfield depth in the organization. Crews shouldn’t go lower than 2.
3. Detroit Tigers - Wyatt Langford OF, Florida
History Shows: Tigers have successful history at developing outfielders, Langford doesn’t need much more time and can make an impact in the bigs as soon as next season. They could stir more positional needs here, but the best player in Langford makes the most sense.
4. Texas Rangers - Walker Jenkins OF, South Brunswick HS (North Carolina)
History Shows: The Rangers last 4 first rounders have been college players, but they have never been shy in picking prep players in the first 5 rounds. I think they are stirring Clark and Jenkins at #4, for the sake of this exercise, we choose Jenkins at 4, but Clark might be the likely choice.
5. Minnesota Twins - Max Clark OF, Franklin HS (Indiana)
History Shows: The Twins have taken 6 shortstops in the top 5 rounds over the past four drafts, causing me to speculate if they take yet another here at 5. Much of what I have read indicates that Jacob Gonzalez could easily be the pick here, but I will shake things up a little. If Clark slides to 5, I think they pull the trigger on him as he is too good to pass up if he falls to them. They will sleep fine knowing their shortstop depth both at the major and minor league levels.
6. Oakland Athletics - Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss
History Shows: The A’s have usually opted for the best player available, a fine decision making strategy for the club. In the past few drafts, they have had multiple catchers and shortstops taken, and I think this one winds up being a college bat over a prepster. I like the fit with Kyle Teel from Virginia here, but with Susac and Soderstrom working their way up the minors, I feel they can afford to go a different direction. I think Jacob Gonzalez fits here, albeit Muncy and Davidson in the system. There is never a problem with having depth at the shortstop position.
7. Cincinnati Reds - Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
History Shows: The Reds have used a lot of early draft capital on catchers, though they have not hit with one yet per se. I think this changes with drafting Teel, who is the best catcher in the class and has strong upside behind the dish. If he gets to 7 and the prep bats are off the board, I do not think Teel would be passed up.
8. Kansas City Royals - Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
History Shows: The Royals have hit on their two prior shortstop selections, with Bobby Witt Jr at #2 overall in 2019 and Nick Loftin at #32 in 2020. Loftin is on the cusp of the major leagues and projects as a super-utility player. Still, their organizational depth at shortstop is not great and Wilson would be a safe bet here at #8. JJ Picollo is leading his first draft as GM so who knows how the cookies will crumble, but Wilson would be a fine pick here at 8 and could sign under slot, allowing them to go after some prep players later in the draft. If Picollo is going to get splashy in his first draft, I could see Blake Mitchell, hoping that he can be a cornerstone behind the plate.
9. Colorado Rockies - Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
History Shows: The Rockies have been very particular when it comes to drafting pitchers, as they have taken 2 prep pitchers in the last 5 years. Lowder had a great CWS and would instantly boost the Rockies pitching position in the organization. Again, another player who could sign for less than slot to allow for a bigger splash in the subsequent rounds.
10. Miami Marlins - Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit (Oregon)
History Shows: The Marlins can flat out develop pitching prospects. If Meyer is here and there is enough belief in his potential as a starter, I believe that the Marlins could talk themselves into taking him at 10. They have taken a prep arm in the second rounds of 2020 and 2022, as both of them are in a part of their top 10 prospects list. Meyer here fits the Marlins mold of projectable pitchers who have great stuff. This pick would be exciting as heck for fans of the game, knowing how the Marlins can develop Meyer into a perennial force coming up.
11. Los Angeles Angels - Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
History Shows: The Angels taking pitchers is never a bad thing, right? Dollander was a force in 2022 after falling off production-wise in 2023. Still, I think there is a lot left in the tank and some issues can be cleaned up, as we saw with his strong performance in the CWS. The Angels have gone with college players in the first round for each of the past four drafts, with the two most recent pitchers, Sam Bachman in 2021 and Reid Detmers in 2020, already reaching the bigs. I can see a similar trajectory continuing here with Dollander.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks - Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (Florida)
History Shows: The Diamondbacks have been very heavy on selecting prep players in the first round over the past five years. Some of the names are marquee, including Corbin Carroll, Jordan Lawlar, and Druw Jones just last year. I see this trend continuing and could see their taking Nimmala, who many think is a strong candidate to stick at short. Lawlar, their #1 prospect is climbing quickly but there are still a few defensive concerns, potentially forcing a position change in the next few levels.
13. Chicago Cubs - Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
History Shows: Taylor to the Cubs connects on a few levels. First, the Cubs do not have a bonafide third-base prospect in their top 10 prospects, with many considering Taylor a safe bet to go in the top 10 this year. If he does slide a little bit, this is where it ends. The lefty college bat impressed all season and would be a great fit with the Cubs. I also considered putting Bradfield here with this pick, though PCA is a no doubt center fielder, as is Bradfield with his defensive prowess. Texas prep catcher, Blake Mitchell, would also make sense here for me.
14. Boston Red Sox - Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford
History Shows: The Red Sox have gone four straight first rounds selecting a prep bat, but this is where I see this trend ending. Colin Houck would be the choice if they follow that trend, but I see them taking Troy or Matt Shaw from Maryland. Troy has positional versatility in the infield, which can lead the Red Sox into sticking him at third or making him a shortstop if other players need to move. Marcelo Mayer, their top prospect, may need to move from short, but if he sticks there, Troy uses his abilities to go elsewhere. He could be an under slot signing, allowing them to go after prepsters with strong college commitments later in the draft, as they have seven picks in the top 151.
15. Chicago White Sox - Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS (GA)
History Shows: The White Sox are a tough case study in terms of what they like to draft, but one thing is clear, they have had success in their first round picks turning into major league talents. They have had three of their last five first rounders reach the majors already (all from college), with the two prep players ranking at #1 and #4 on their current top 30. This makes it a little tough to decipher what the White Sox may want here, as they could use really any of the names that are available here. A lot of people have them on a college arm, which would be a prudent choice. I have them taking Houck after falling a little bit on this board so far. He’s a big high school shortstop and could wind up moving to third as he climbs the ranks, but Houck at 15 is a great spot if he winds up with the White Sox here.
16. San Francisco Giants - Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland
History Shows: Well, the Giants may be the easiest team to categorize thus far in the draft. Every single one of their first and second round picks in the past five drafts has been a college player, split evenly for pitchers and hitters. So this is where they take a prep player right? The way that everything above has come out, I would say Shaw is a safe bet to find his way here. Many draft pundits believe that he moves to second base early in his pro career, but wherever he winds up on the diamond, his bat warrants this pick.
17. Baltimore Orioles - Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell (FL)
History Shows: Mike Elias has been famous for not drafting pitchers in the early rounds of the draft, only taking Grayson Rodriguez in 2018 out of high school. It is of note that picking 17 is their latest first round pick in the past five drafts as well, which can shift the narrative a little bit and potentially force Elias into an interesting circumstance. I have gone back and forth with Miller and Hurston Waldrep from Florida. At some point the Orioles are going to have to take pitchers right? Maybe not, but they have a good thing going in finding and developing position players. This trend continues with Miller, and the Orioles will supplement their organizational pitching through free agency and trades.
18. Milwaukee Brewers - Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
History Shows: The Brewers have gone the past three drafts taking a college bat, leading me to think that they will follow a similar path here. I still see Enrique Bradfield available, but I do not see the Brewers taking him with the outfielders they have on the cusp of the majors right now, so I will stick with Wilken. Wilken fits the stereotypical mold of a big bat third baseman, and I think the Brewers would like him or Brayden Taylor in the organization. Since Taylor is gone on this board, maybe they take a shot on Wilken.
19. Tampa Bay Rays - Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton HS (TX)
History Shows: The Rays have not been shy in taking risks on prep players in the last five drafts, using all but one true (excluding compensation picks) first round selection on prep guys. Picking here at 19 is right around where the Rays are used to picking and this opens the door wide open on which route they go. Last year they shocked a lot of people by taking 1B, Xavier Isaac in the first round. I would think that this pick goes to a prep bat, and with Blake Mitchell still available in my mock, I see him going with the Rays. Catchers for the Rays are thin in the system, with Dom Keegan ranking 24th in their top 30 and being the only backstop on the list. Mitchell immediately upgrades the position and organizational depth here and the Rays would take a slight flier on him. Since this mock shook out this way, Mitchell’s availability at 19 could be enough for the Rays to convince themselves to take a risk on the young catcher.
20. Toronto Blue Jays - Enrique Bradfield, Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
History Shows: Here is another spot where a slide stops, this time for Bradfield. The defensive prowess that Bradfield possesses as an elite runner and defender is well known, but his batting profile still lags behind a little. If the Blue Jays can figure that out, then there is no reason to think that Bradfield could not make a difference at the major league level. In an organization that desperately needs high-end outfield prospect depth, Bradfield could be an easy choice for the Blue Jays if he falls to them at 20.
21. St. Louis Cardinals - Nolan Schanuel, 1B, FAU
History Shows: The Cardinals have had recent success in their first round position players reaching the big leagues, namely Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Masyn Winn on the cusp. A perennial team selecting right around #20 shows that the Cardinals can hit on some of their targets in the back half of the first round. I like the fit with Schanuel here, as he is a big lefty bat that adds a solid first base prospect in an organization littered with high end pitchers. Schanuel put up great numbers in 2023 at FAU and if he is still on the board when the Cardinals pick comes along, there may not be much to overthink with the selection.
22. Seattle Mariners - Zach Gelof, 3B, Virginia
History Shows: The Mariners have a lot of wiggle room with their pick at #22 here, in large part due to their having picks 29 and 30 as well. This also means that the Mariners could go in a myriad of different directions with the pick. I could see them taking a “reach” with a college bat, hoping to go under-slot and save some money for their next two picks. I chose Gelof here for that reason, and after an illustrious career with the Cavaliers in Charlottesville, he could wind up being a pick for some cash savings to chase some young prep players a few picks later. Gelof provides another infielder in the Mariners system and likely has some people comparing his abilities to that of his older brother, who is already knocking on the door of reaching the majors.
23. Cleveland Guardians – Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
History Shows: The Waldrep slide ends here and the Guardians are a team that may jump at the opportunity to take him if he gets to 23. Their recent success in drafting and developing strong RHP fits well with what Waldrep brings. They have taken a half dozen RHP over the past couple of years all before the 2nd round and Waldrep here can do the same. Some mocks have him as high as 15, but if he gets to 23 I think Cleveland will push aside their hope for a prep bat and take the best player still available.
24. Atlanta Braves - Chase Davis, OF, Arizona
History Shows: My feeling says that the Braves will want to take an outfielder here. The current Braves’ top prospects list is filled with pitchers, mostly RHP, and there are still a few good outfield names still on the board. Dillon Head and Chase Davis are the two that I narrowed down to, with Head a slightly better defender and Davis with more raw power. If these are there two choices at this stage, it might be a toss up on who they value more. I chose Davis here for no other reason than the Braves history in drafting college position players in the high rounds, only opting for one prep outfielder in the top three rounds. That player turned out to be Michael Harris II, but I digress.
25. San Diego Padres - Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (Virginia)
History Shows: I’ll take the easy pick here with Edlridge as many other mocks have done with his availability at 25. The Padres love, and I mean love, their prep draft picks early in the draft. They have taken only one college player in the first two rounds of the draft in the past five years. Eldridge is a player that they can wait out as well, being that he has ambitions to be a two-way player. If he is still here at 25, the Padres likely take him and carry on, without thinking too much about other players, maybe Head here as well.
26. New York Yankees - Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (MA)
History Shows: The Yankees are a little bit of a mixed bag when it comes to decision making in the first round, as they have gone the college position player route as well as the prep bat route in the past. The safer bet would be to go college bat, as they did last season with Spencer Jones who surprised people going at 25. It is an interesting choice here for the Yankees, who only have two picks in the top 100 as of now. This fact makes me think that they could spend big on a prep player, maybe trying to pull him away from his college commitment. For this reason, I like Thomas White from Phillips Academy in Massachusetts. If the Yankees, who pride themselves on pitcher development and performance, can fix him up a little, he has the body to be an imposing force on the bump. The organization currently has one LHP in their top 30, and the addition of White could make it two. He is apparently strongly inclined to head to Vanderbilt, but so was Anthony Volpe before the Yankees drafted him at #30 in 2019. Let’s have a little fun with this pick, why not? Other names, maybe more realistic, could be some of the prep shortstops (Stafura, Peete, or even Bitonti) or Dillon Head.
27. Philadelphia Phillies - Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
History Shows: The Phillies have hit well on two prep pitchers in the first round recently, with Mick Abel and Andrew Painter. Without another pick until #98, the Phillies could go in different directions here. Much like the Yankees, they could take a flier on a prep bat, which I would think could be a shortstop or Dillon Head if he falls here. Without the other certainty of a prep player panning out and without being able to supplement the organization in the meantime, they could go a little safer with Morales here. His hit tools are good and the Phillies may play it safe if they have the opportunity to take him here.
28. Houston Astros - Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU
History Shows: The Astros have gone with college bats in the past for their first round selections, but this year may be a little different. I think if Morales is off the board, the Astros go with a pitcher who improved his stock tremendously in Ohama. Floyd was dominant against Florida in the CWS. The Astros also pick at 61 and 99, so their urgency in hitting a big fish isn’t as evident as the Phillies or Yankees in the picks preceding them. Floyd is a safe bet in a farm system who is full of top end position player talent.
29. Seattle Mariners - Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor HS (IL)
History Shows: Like I mentioned with the prior Mariners pick in Gelof, the choice of taking a “stretch” college bat could free up a little more money to spend here at 29 and at 30. Head dropping to 29 for the Mariners would be incredible, and they could be quick to turn in the card on this pick while being able to make another splash with the next pick.
30. Seattle Mariners - Colt Emerson, IF, Glenn HS (OH)
31. Tampa Bay Rays - Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian (FL)
32. New York Mets - Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton (AZ)
History Shows: The Mets only have two picks in the top 100 this year and we know how Steve Cohen likes to spend. The Mets have been adept in identifying quality high school talent in the past, with the successes of Brett Baty, Jarred Kelenic, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. They could get crazy here and go after Cholowsky, trying to lure him away from his football and baseball commitment at UCLA. I would think that this position is likely going to be a prep bat and maybe a top end prep pitcher.
33. Milwaukee Brewers - Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
34. Minnesota Twins - Cameron Johnson, LHP, IMG Academy (Florida)
35. Miami Marlins - George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Florida)
36. Los Angeles Dodgers - Kevin McGonigle, SS/2B, Monsignor Bonner (PA)
History Shows: The Dodgers may be the best in the business at identifying and developing pitching talent, which makes me think that they take a pitcher at this point. They are also lacking slightly in shortstop depth organizationally, and there are still a few big name high schoolers still on the board. At #36, there are still a few intriguing names left, including LHPs Joe Whitman and Cameron Johnson but I have them taking McGonigle here. I think they can find some of their pitching diamonds in the later rounds, and McGonigle fits their affection for left handed batting infielders, similar to Corey Seagar and Gavin Lux.
Thanks for following along! What are some of your early predictions? Who do you want your team to choose with their selection?