10/17 Win Prediction

When reading today's predicted wins, take note of the predicted record versus the team's actual record. Some of the teams have inflated predicted records due to having high-scoring games against easier opponents. Since the number of predicted wins is directly correlated to the goal differential, teams that may have had large out-of-conference victories have higher predictions. 

We are going to use Michigan as an example. Michigan is currently 9-4, but the prediction is 14-2, meaning they have lost 2 more games than they are expected to, based on their scoring. However, when you look at Michigan's schedule, you can see that they had three games with over a five goal differential. These three games added nine, seven, and six goals for and zero against. So that is an additional +22 goals that Michigan has. If a team is scoring an average of 3.15 goals per game, and having an average of 1 goal against per game, they are going to be expected to have more wins than if the previously mentioned games had a two-goal differential. 

Some teams are going to do better than expected and some will do worse than expected. It is to be expected when the division is so diverse in skill level, an ACC team against an NEC school is going to have a very different result than an ACC school against a fellow ACC school. 

It would be interesting to look at either doing win predictions by only in-conference goals or perhaps splitting it by another measure like games against opponents similar in rank. I plan to further explore these methods after the season ends. 

Now let's get into this week's predictions!

Let's start with Michigan, who is now predicted to come in first after an 8-0 weekend. On Friday, Michigan played against Indiana and came up with a 6-0 in-conference win. Six different Wolverines scored in the match. The first quarter went scoreless, but they then scored two goals in each subsequent quarter. On Sunday, they took down #5 Iowa, in a 2-0 victory. Goalkeeper Anna Spieker had three saves for the shutout.

Despite their current 14-1 record, and 7-0 conference record, Maryland is predicted to lose the rest of their games. They started the week off strong with a large-margin victory against Georgetown. The Terps found the back of the net eleven times during the match. Bibi Donraadt and Riley Donnelly each scored three goals. On Sunday, they took on Big 10 opponent Rutgers, and a closely matched contest 4-3. Leah Crouse scored the game-winning goal with just 41 seconds to spare in regulation. 

Northwestern had a pair of Big Ten wins, to move them to 3-3 for conference play. On Saturday, they won 3-1 against Michigan State. Outshooting Michigan State 23-9, the Wildcats came up big with two fourth-quarter goals for the win. On Sunday, they picked up an overtime win against Ohio State. The first three quarters went scoreless, and then under two minutes into the first, Bente Baekers put Northwestern on the board first. Ohio State scored a tying goal a few minutes later. Three minutes into the first overtime period, Ana Medina Garcia scored. Annabel Skubisz had a total of eleven saves during the match. 

After falling to Northwestern on Friday, Michigan State picked up its first conference win on Sunday against Indiana. The first quarter was quite uneventful offensively, with only one corner and one shot coming from MSU. Indiana then stepped on the gas, getting twelve shots and three corners in the remaining quarters. Despite the pressure from Indiana, Monique Jardell had seven saves to keep them in the game. After sixty-two scoreless minutes, Celina Riccardo scored her first goal of the season to give the Spartans victory.  

Maine added another win to their 5-0 conference run this week after beating Bryant 6-3 and clinched their American East Championship berth. The scoring started early, with Madisyn Hartley getting one in 3:15 minutes into the match. By halftime, it was a 3-2 game. In the 33rd minute, not only did Maine get another goal, they also received a team red card, which removes their head coach from the game. Bryant used the commotion to score 24 seconds later, but ultimately it was not enough as Maine scored two more in the third for the win. 

UVM had a come from behind against New Hampshire to move to 4-2 in-conference. UNH scored first, but UVM matched it just seconds into the second quarter. UNH then scored in the fourth and UVM matched it, just 1:03 later. With 7 seconds left in their first overtime period, Sophia Lefranc found the back of the net to give the Catamounts the win. They then played Stonehill on Sunday and won 4-0 off of two goals from Maddie Moran. 

California and Stanford played one of the most offensively uneventful games on Friday. Looking at the box score, it is no wonder the game ended in shootouts. In eighty minutes of game-play, the teams only had five shots each, and neither team earned a corner. Cal had a slight advantage with three shots on goal in comparison to Stanford's two. Four Bears scored during shootouts and Cato Knipping saved two of Stanford's attempts, to ultimately give California the win. 

Old Dominion had 15 goals this weekend after a 7-0 win against Providence and an 8-0 win against Queens. In the win against Providence, the subs came in big. Sacha De Gier and Aubrey Mytych both scored two goals after subbing into the game. Mytych also scored two in the game against Queens, she now has nine goals for the season. Delphine Le Juene scored two goals in the Queens game as well. 

UConn had themselves a weekend, picking up a pair of home wins. First, they played a Big East matchup against Villanova, winning 3-0. Julia Bressler scored two goals to make Huskies 4-1 in-conference. On Sunday, they played in a thrilling shootout match against Boston College. Both teams scored goals in the second, with Bressler scoring for UConn. Goalkeeper Cheyenne Sprecher only let one shootout in, to give the Huskies the win. 

Quinnipiac picked up their first conference win against Georgetown on Friday. Three different players scored in the match, and Nina Santore had two saves in the cage. The first goal of the match came from a penalty stroke from Lucia Pompeo. The Bobcats then lost to Fairfield on Sunday. 

Harvard remains undefeated in the Ivy League, after picking up a road win against Dartmouth on Friday. Bronte-May Brough scored two goals off of corners, and Kate Oliver scored the final goal for the 3-2 win. Harvard outshot Dartmouth 22-5. Harvard picked up an out-of-conference win against Delaware on Sunday, beating the Blue Hens 2-1. 

Princeton moves to 4-0 in the Ivies, after a 2-1 victory against Cornell. Cornell came out strong and scored just two minutes in. The score remained in favor of Cornell until Autumn Brown tipped in a shot off of a penalty corner. Just over a minute later, Sam Davidson scored for the Tigers on a penalty stroke. 

UPenn picked up another conference win against Brown on Saturday, beating the Bears 3-2. Brown scored twice in the first, and then did not put any more in, despite having double the amount of shots that Penn did. Coming from behind, Penn scored in the seconds, and then twice in the fourth. Two of the goals came from Allison Kuzyk. The pair of goals were the first of the season for the junior from Vancouver. 

Columbia won against Yale on Friday, to make them 2-2 for conference play. Ellie Decker opened the scoring for Columbia, with a goal in the first quarter. Yale tied up the game in the third quarter. With just under six minutes left in the game, Lindsey Yu scored the game-winner. 

4-0 in the NEC just 4 years into being a program? Ask Coach Nikki Miller what her secret is because Wagner is doing it after another win this weekend, this time coming against Sacred Heart. This game was personal for the Seahawks, with Miller being the former assistant coach at SHU and graduate transfer Kayla Kruk being the former 2-time captain for the Pioneers. Laura van Hamburg started the scoring early, just six minutes into the game. Kruk then assisted a goal by Julia Pastorino. Agustina DeHarbe then scored a pair. With a minute left in the third, Kruk scored against her former teammates for her third goal of the season. Liselotte Koop rounded out the scoring for the Seahawks. On Sunday, the seahawks came from behind after La Salle scored two goals. Koop scored in the third and with two minutes left in the fourth to keep the Seahawks in the game. Pastorino scored forty-two seconds into overtime for the win. 

Speaking of Sacred Heart, the Pioneers broke their 13-game losing streak on Sunday, to give them their first win of the season. The underclassmen came out in full force in the game against Colgate. Aine Keaney started the scoring, in what became a standout performance for the sophomore. Prior to the contest, Keaney had one goal for the season. She walked off the field with three more. The other goal in the 4-3 win came from freshman Ines Braithwaite, who also scored the Pioneer's lone goal in the Wagner loss. In the cage, soph0more Sammie Maresca had a total of 5 saves for the Pioneers. The kids held the game together, which gives hope for the future of the Pioneers. 

Fairfield moved to 3-1 in the NEC, after a win against Saint Francis. Konni Hofmann scored goals in the first and second quarters to put the Stags up 2-0. Nora Amme scored in the third, which was enough to give Fairfield the win, despite a late goal from SFU. Fairfield led in shots, 10-6, and in corners, 7-4.  On Sunday, they came from behind against Quinnipiac to win 5-2. Quinnipiac scored twice in the first twenty-five minutes, but then Fairfield had five unanswered goals, from five different players. Payton Rahn had seven saves during the game. 

The Olton sisters led the scoring for LIU in a 6-3 win against Merrimack on Friday. Kaitlyn Olton had two goals and Saarah Olton had one. LIU led the contest with twenty-eight shots, with ten coming in the third quarter, LIU also had twenty-one total corners, with a whopping eleven in the third, and seven in the fourth. Despite the number of corners, they only converted on one of them. On Sunday, the Sharks fell to Holy Cross 0-1 after a goal came with 5 seconds left in the second overtime period. 

Lily Santi had herself a day for the Hawks. The junior from New Jersey had three goals in their game against Saint Louis, with two coming from penalty strokes. She contributed nine shots, to the team's twenty-seven shots in the game. Manu Ghigliotti started the scoring for the Hawks and contributed four shots. The other goal came from freshman, Noa Schuringa, marking her third goal in three games. 

A lone third-quarter goal from Jazmin Palma and three saves from Grace Gidwani, was all it took for Lock Haven to win their fourth in-conference game of the season. Lock Haven and Richmond were evenly matched with eleven shots each and five corners each. Palma was awarded a stroke which she put into the net, to win her senior night and Lock Haven's last home game. 

La Salle picked up their second A10 win on Friday against Davidson, after three goals in the second quarter. Tatum Johnson found the back of the next slightly over a minute into the second. Two minutes later, Peyton Tollaksen doubled the lead. With under six minutes left in the second, Johnson scored once again, which was enough for the win. On Sunday they traveled to Wagner, where they ultimately fell 2-3 to the Seahawks. 

Davidson had a pair of losses, with the first being the aforementioned La Salle game. On Sunday they traveled to Villanova, where they lost 2-3. Davidson scored first, off a goal from Celie Constantine. After Villanova put three goals in, Constantine was able to score once again to make it a one-goal difference. This marks the freshman's second and third goals for the season. 

Boston U, who already clinched their tournament berth, had their first conference loss of the season. On Saturday, the Terriers faced Lafayette and fell 0-2. After an evenly matched first quarter, BU's offensive effort fell as they saw no shots in the second and one in the third. This was enough for Lafayette to get a two-goal lead, which resulted in the upset. 

The game against BU was Lafayette's first conference win of the year. They currently sit in sixth in the Patriot League, only ahead of Colgate. Molly McAndrew and Lineke Spaans had the two goals for the Leopards. Freshman goalkeeper Raffi Fragomeni had two saves for the shutout. The Leopards then traveled to Yale, where they lost 0-1. 

American can back from a one-goal deficit in the first, to beat Lehigh 3-1 on Friday. With no corners in the game for American, the Eagles needed to do all the hard work, and that is exactly what they did. Megan Hoffman scored first for American, to make the game 1-1 at halftime. Just over a minute into the second half, Federica Turina Dellamaggiore scored her first goal of the day. It would not be her last, as she scored another goal a minute and a half into the fourth quarter to give the Eagles another Patriot League win. 

Holy Cross won a tightly contested game against Colgate this week, to make them 2-2 in the Patriot League. Both teams scored in the first quarter, with Holy Cross scoring first. At the start of the third, Rachel Perry was able to score to give Holy Cross the lead, and the eventual win. The Crusaders outshot Colgate, but only 8-7. Colgate led in corners, 3-2. Holy Cross now sits in fifth.  

Erin. Freaking. Matson. The senior is easily one of the most accomplished, if not the most accomplished, college players to play the sport. On Friday, she added to the list of accomplishments by becoming the leading goal-scorer in ACC history. She has had a total of 126 goals in her five years at UNC and 309 career points. 

Of course, Matson is not the only player who had a big game in the 6-1 win against Syracuse on Friday. Ryleigh Heck scored her first career hat trick. The freshman from New Jersey was insanely impressive before coming to UNC and is now thriving with the Tar Heels. She already has 22 points this season, with ten goals and one assist. 

Abby Carpenter's goal with five minutes left in the game gave Wake Forest another ACC this weekend. In almost 55 scoreless minutes, Wake and UVA remained evenly matched, tying win nine shots each and 3-4 for corners. It looked like the game would be heading into extra time, when Carpenter slipped one in off of a corner. 

Duke thought they had the Louisville game in the bag, as the seconds on the scoreboard ticked down. With 7 seconds left in the game, Louisville managed to get a corner, and Julie Kouijzer became the hero of the game when she got the ball into the net. The game then went into overtime where neither team scored. In shootouts, Katie Schneider and Kelsey McCrudden, and Emilia Kaczmarczyk slipped past Duke's goalkeeper. Sasha Elliot stood strong in the goal, stopping three attempts to give the Cards victory. The Cards then went on to win 4-0 against Ball State. 

Monmouth picked up two CAA wins this weekend to put them at 3-1. Annick van Lange had four goals between the two games, with one against Hofstra and three against Northeastern. Jess Tucker scored the other goal in the 2-0 win against Hofstra, with twenty-two seconds left in the match. After van Lange's three goals and a pair of Northeastern goals, Monmouth was tied with Northeastern 3-3. Maggie Downs put one in with under two left in the game, to ultimately give the Hawks the victory. 

Drexel moved to 2-1 in the CAA after a 5-1 win against Towson on Sunday. Five different players scored for the Dragons. Isabel Jacobs had two assists in the match. Megan Hadfield had two saves in the shutout. 

William and Mary continues to surprise as they went 1-1 this weekend. The Tribe had started the season very strongly with some ranked wins but then started to falter in conference. On Friday they lost 1-5 to Northeastern. While Lauren Curran was able to get them on the board first, Northeastern's four goals in the second half were left unanswered. Curran also scored the lone goal in the Tribe's 1-0 win against Hofstra. The goal came in the last two minutes of the game.

Northeastern picked up their second CAA win against William and Mary in a 5-1 win. As mentioned before, W&M scored first. Maria Armaganian scored late in the first to tie the game. Emmy Stubbs then had two goals, and Anna-Kate Domingue and Emilia Adragna also scored one apiece. They outshot the Tribe 19-6. on Sunday they lost 3-4 to Monmouth to move to 2-1 in-conference. Stubbs scored two more goals in the match and Mak Graves also scored. Jonna Kennedy had 3 saves in the game. Kristina Merashoff also went in for 6 minutes while Kennedy was removed for a card, and had three saved in those 6 minutes. 

Delaware is 3-1 in-conference, which is a massive change from their out-of-conference 2-8 record. The first three quarters were scoreless, despite Delaware out-shooting Towson 16-5. In the fourth quarter, Towson got on the board first, but just over a minute later, Lia Becker scored for the Blue Hens. The game then went into overtime, where Sian Emslie scored five minutes into overtime to give the Blue Hens the 2-1 win. On Sunday they traveled to Harvard where they lost 1-2. 

App State got a pair of wins this weekend and is now 3-2 in the MAC and 8-5 overall. Their first game came against Longwood, in a 4-0 win. Sarah Farrell scored in the first two minutes of the game, and then later in the third quarter. Anna Smarrelli scored in the second and again in the fourth. Addie Clark had six saves in the game to give her another shutout. On Sunday, they won 2-0 against Saint Louis, with 29 shots and 8 corners. 

Miami picked up another MAC win against Kent State on Friday in a 2-1 game. This game was very card-heavy, with Kent State having four and Miami having four as well. Despite this, none of the goals came while the rosters were uneven. Luli Rosso scored in the first two minutes of the second and Paula Pena Martinez scored with four minutes left in the game. 

Macy Lotze had four saves this weekend to give Ohio two shutouts this weekend. On Friday they played against Central Michigan and won 2-0. The Bobcats dominated the score sheet, with 18 shots. On Sunday, they had a 2-0 win against Saint Francis. Saint Francis had more corners, but Ohio kept them off the board. 

Ball State picked up a MAC win on Friday, before taking a loss against Louisville on Sunday. Michaela Graney converted on a second-quarter shot, to give Ball State the lead at the half before Fleur Knopert scored again in the third for the win. In the Louisville game, Hannah Johnston had ten saves to minimize the damage, but it was not enough as there was a lack of offensive effort. 

Central Michigan picked up their second win of the season against Lindenwood on Sunday after falling 0-2 against Ohio on Friday. Maja Halasz had eleven saves on Friday, but their offense was only able to put one shot on cage. In the Lindenwood win, Rachel Ruttenberg and Amelia Lane both had a pair of goals. Kate Biglin and Alice O'Hagan both added a goal to the total. CMU had 28 shots compared to Lindenwood's 8. 

JMU picked up another ranked win on Sunday, coming against Wake Forest. Eveline Zwager and Diede Remijnse both scored to give them the 2-0 win. 

Lindenwood lost in the previously mentioned Central Michigan game.  Leah Brozovich had seven saves in the loss. 

Queens had dropped a pair after a 2-5 loss to Saint Louis on Monday and a 0-8 loss against ODU on Sunday. Caroline Powell scored two goals in the Saint Louis game.