09/26/2022

The Pythagorean Win Expectation is one of my favorite statistics to use.  While I don't find it to always be accurate until late in the season, I find it intriguing to see how the predictions change throughout the course of a season, especially once in-conference play starts. 

First up is the Big 10. In comparison to the previous week, only Rutgers and Michigan moved. They traded spots, moving Michigan into the top 4.

Despite recording their first loss of the season, Northwestern remains in first place at the moment. Beating Penn State 5-0 helped drive their goal differential to +24. The team has recorded 4 shutouts this season, with all but one being over 3-0. 

Last year's Big 10 champions, Rutgers, is off to a slower start this year. They have seen some ranked wins this season, but fell to Michigan this past weekend, as well as Saint Joseph's and Duke in August, and Princeton earlier in the month. 

In the American East, Vermont continues to thrive with only one loss this season, which was to Syracuse during opening weekend. This past weekend they played Bryant and Northeastern and recorded 2 goals against each of them. They currently have the third highest predicted win percentage across the division. 

UMass-Lowell is also on a hot streak, with 6 wins. They faced UC Davis and New Hampshire this past weekend, scoring 5 vs. New Hampshire and beating UC Davis in shootouts. 

Bryant, a newcomer in the conference is holding out fairly well considering their previous record of 2-16 while in the Northeast Conference. They are currently 4-6 after losing to Vermont and California this past weekend. 

Over in the Ivy League, Brown is currently in first . They are coming off a loss to Yale in overtime and a strong showing against Sacred Heart, beating them 4-0.  Freshman Lexi Pellegrino is leading the team with 19 points in her young career, with 3 goals and 2 assists this past weekend. 

Harvard is in a very close second. They won both of their games this past weekend, score 3 goals in each contest. They beat in-conference opponent Columbia 3-1 and out-of-conference Boston University 3-0. 

Liberty continues to hold onto the Big East this year, and the whole country at the moment. They are predicted to have the highest win percentage at 88% of their games, however they are already posting more losses than they are expected to have. This is due to their high goal differential at the moment. They started their season with a 9-0 win versus Kent State and have also posted a 11-0 win versus Queens, 4-0 versus UConn, and 3-0 versus Longwood. 

Old Dominion went up a spot this week after beating Quinnipiac 6-1. They fell to UConn 1-2 in overtime on Friday. 

In the Northeast Conference, Rider continues to hold onto first place after beating Georgetown 4-0 on Sunday. Freshman Valeria Perales has been tearing up the turf for the Broncs this season. She currently has 9 goals and 3 assists, making her have 21 points for the season, thus far. 

Wagner is continuing to thrive in the NEC. The young program was started in 2019 and has really started to thrive. Wagner recorded an overtime win against Towson on Friday and fell to Monmouth in overtime on Sunday. The team has only had one game this season with over a one-goal differential. Graduate transfer student Kayla Kruk scored the game-tying goal on Friday with 2:45 remaining in the game and then recorded the assist in the game-winning goal. She then assisted Kira Mordvinov in the game-tying goal on Sunday before ultimately falling to Monmouth. 

Last year's NEC champion, Fairfield, finally moved back into the top four after an amazing weekend from the sophomore goalie, Peyton Rahn. Sunday's game versus Yale was a shootout win for the young goalie. She recorded 6 saves during the regulation play. 

Saint Joe's made a good effort to maximize their goal differential this weekend, with a 2-0 win to Lock Haven and a 6-0 win to Delaware. Their junior class had a strong showing this weekend with Lily Santi tallying 4 points and Manu Ghigliotti tallying 5. 

VCU did some major climbing this week after winning 4-0 and then 3-0. 

Saint Louis came close to recording their second win of the season, but ultimately fell to Bryant in overtime. 

In the Patriot League, American flew into first place. This came after a very strong showing against Colgate on Saturday, beating the in-conference opponent 8-0. They kept up the energy to bear Queen 5-0 on Sunday. They place Boston University on Saturday. 

Holy Cross also made some major improvements this weekend, moving from 5th place to 3rd., and improving to 3-7. They started the weekend with a 0-3 loss to Boston University but followed up with a 4-1 win versus Davidson. Junior Allie McDonough scored two and sophomore Meggan Fourie also recorded two in the win. Junior goalkeeper Brooke Ross recorded 7 saves in the win. 

The ACC remained very steady this week. 

The only changes comes from BC and Duke, who switched sports after BC posted 2 wins, with one of them being versus Duke. 

UNC remains in first and stays undefeated. They recorded two shutouts this weekend with goalies Kylie Walbert and Abigail Taylor splitting time between the posts. 

Syracuse sits in second, after falling to UVA on Friday. They bounced back to beat Dartmouth 6-0 on Sunday. The weakness in their strength of schedule at the beginning of the month is keeping their predicted win percentage high. While they are 8-2 overall, they are only 2-2 versus ranked opponents and 1-1 in the ACC at the moment. Starting the season with a 5-0 win to Sacred Heart and a 6-0 win to Vermont has kept their goal differential high, but they're going to have to fight to keep it that way as their schedule gets harder. 

The CAA only saw some minor shifts this week. 

William & Mary moved up to second thanks to a 7-1 win versus Central Michigan, but fell to UConn 1-3. 

Hofstra fell to third, despite a 3-0 win versus Sacred Heart on Friday. They only played one game this weekend. 

Towson moved up a spot after beating Quinnipiac 4-1, but they also suffered an overtime loss to Wagner on Friday. 

The MAC also saw a few minor shifts, with Ohio and App State trading spots, as did Longwood and Ball State, and Kent State and Central Michigan. 

Current leader, Miami Ohio saw one win and one loss this weekend. They beat Bellarmine 3-1 on Friday, but fell to Indiana 1-2 on Sunday. Junior Paula Pena Martinez recorded two goals on Friday and currently leads the team with 8 goals on the season. 

And last, but not least is the independents.

JMU is continuing to have a strong season and is predicted to win 65% of their games, which is the 25th most in the country. Hopefully, this will be enough to grab a tournament spot. This weekend they played Saint Francis, winning 9-2, and Duke, winning 4-2. They continue versus ACC opponents on Friday versus Syracuse. They then play #3 Iowa on Sunday. Will their strength of schedule be enough to grab the bid?

Lindenwood is predicted to win a lot, but most of them come versus division 2 programs, leaving them still ranked at the bottom of the country. The newly D1 program, needs to increase the number of division one programs to really see how competitive they are. 

Queens is fighting hard, but still falling short. This weekend was no different, as they lost 0-2 to Ohio and 0-5 to American. Their strength of schedule is tough, which hopefully will give the young team experience as they continue to integrate into division one.