Page Navigation
Embedded Files
5. Likelihood / Probability Analysis
This sub-section reviews the need to assess the likelihood/probability of a risk occurring and provides detailed guidance to help determine the score.
Overview
Overview
Risk likelihood or probability is a qualitative assessment that explains how likely a risk will occur. Qualitative assessments are based on opinions; it is difficult to put an exact number on the assessment. Likelihood means the possibility of a potential risk occurring, interpreted using qualitative values such as unlikely, possible, likely, highly likely and almost certain.
Likelihood/probability assessments
Likelihood/probability assessments
The likelihood (probability) that each risk event will occur is also assessed. This often involves the use of subjective probability assessment techniques, particularly if circumstances preclude a direct evaluation of the probability by objective methods such as simulation of scenarios. A detailed probability guidance has been developed for your consideration.
Video tutorial
Video tutorial
RA Step 5 Likelihood/Probability Analysis_Final.mp4Step-by-step Guide
Step-by-step Guide
Likelihood/probability rating matrix
Likelihood/probability rating matrix
Assess the probability of the risk occurring and provide justification for your selection.
Assess the probability of the risk occurring and provide justification for your selection.
For each risk factor listed in the SIS/myRisk application, assess its likelihood of occurring in the future.
Score the likelihood of the risk using this scale: 1 (unlikely), 2 (possible), 3 (likely), 4 (highly likely), 5 (almost certain).
Document the likelihood justification in the respective tab for all risk factors.
Page updated
Report abuse