Pacing and synchronisation of palaeoclimate variability, June2017

This joint meeting between ReCoVER and Past Earth Network took place at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK on 29th and 30th June 2017. The meeting looked at a hierarchy of nonlinear models of past climate and will consider how global oscillations of climate variables are created (forced or internal) and may be "paced" by astronomical or other forcing. This adds to our understanding of how the climate system in general responds to forcing, which is relevant for projected future climate change.

Questions included:

  • How is information moved up and down the hierarchy of models, and how can simple conceptual models be evaluated against more complex models and palaeoclimate data?
  • Which behaviours found in low-order models can be expected to remain in the more complex models, and which will disappear/change?
  • What are the differences between models for cold vs warm climates, e.g. how is variability in warm climates affected by lack of ice sheets?
  • How can classes/types of conceptual models be usefully grouped, eg stochastic vs deterministic, average vs phenomenological?
  • How can one best validate models against data and each other?
  • How can we use knowledge of past climate to improve climate forecasts?

Invited speakers included:

  • Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Tokyo)
  • C David Camp (Cal Poly)
  • Michel Crucifix (Louvain)
  • Henk Dijkstra (Utrecht)
  • Peter Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
  • Lauren Gregoire (Leeds)
  • Frank Kwasniok (Exeter)
  • Tim Lenton (Exeter)
  • Richard Wood (Met Office)
 ReCoVER[Logo]
Organizers: Anna von der Heydt (Utrecht), Dave Camp (Cal Poly), Peter Ashwin (Exeter)

Schedule:
Thursday 29th June


Time

 

9:30

Introduction

9:45

Lecture: Henk Dijstra (Ultrecht)

Tracing physical mechanisms through a (climate) model hierarchy 

10:15

Lecture: Richard Wood (Met Office)

A model hierarchy for AMOC thresholds, based on traceable physics from a box model to an AOGCM

10.45

Coffee; Discussions

11:15

Lightning talks

Karl Nyman (Copenhagen): Pacing of the Pleistocene ice age cycles

Courtney Quinn (Exeter): A Delay Differential Equation approach to a Pleistocene model

Michiel Baatsen (Utrecht): Modelled late Eocene atmosphere-ocean circulation, its peculiar features and consequences for the EOT

Danny Williamson (Exeter): How could Paleo ice sheet data improve current climate forecasts?

Claudia Wieners (Utrecht): The influence of the Indian Ocean on El Niño (in an intermediate complexity model and a GCM)

André Juling (Utrecht): Energetics of the Southern Ocean Mode

William Roberts (Bristol): 31 thousand years of interannual variability from West Antarctica: what causes the changes?

Hassan Alkhayoun (Exeter): Rate-dependent tipping from periodic attractors: partial tipping  and connecting orbits

12:30

Lunch

14:00

Lecture: Tim Lenton (Exeter)

Quasi-periodic oceanic anoxic events due to a self-sustaining oscillation in the Earth system?

14:30

Lecture: Peter Ditlevsen (Copenhagen) 

Reflections on the dynamics of glacial climate changes inferred from paleoclimatic time series

15:00

Tea; discussions and posters

Discussion: Open questions & challenges to the tracing of physical properties through the model hierarchy

16:30

Lecture: Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Tokyo)

Investigating the thresholds of glacial-interglacial cycles and abrupt climate changes using MIROC GCM

17:15

Break

19:00

Workshop dinner, Solar room, Dartington Hall


Friday 30th June

Time

 

9:30

Lecture: Michel Crucifix (Louvain)

Pacing ice ages: the plausible and the doubtful

10:00

Lecture: C David Camp (Cal Poly)

Comparing glacial cycle pacing in models and data

10:30

Lightning talks

Peter Challenor (Exeter): Towards a verifiable, traceable model hierarchy

Mike Jeffrey (Bristol): Nonsmooth models

10.45

Coffee; Discussions

Discussion: The potential of past climate modelling and data to inform predictions of future climate variability

12:00

Lunch

13:30

Lecture: Frank Kwasniok (Exeter)

Calibrating conceptual models against palaeoclimatic records: methods, examples and challenges

14:00

Lecture: Lauren Gregoire (Leeds)

What drove the North American deglaciation? Decomposing factors and quantifying uncertainty

14:30

Tea, Discussions, Walk

Discussion: Open questions & challenges to detecting, classifying pacing of climate variability by external forcing 

17:00

Closing