Gunboat diplomacy will not work with North Korea, writes Winston Peters , one of the few Western politicians to have visited Pyongyang.
Dominion Post 12 April 2103
Prime Minister John Key stumbled into a dangerous game with his loose talk about war on the Korean Peninsula.
Speaking in China last week, Mr Key declared that New Zealand was prepared to go to war against North Korea if conflict broke out in the region. The comment has been roundly condemned, and rightfully so.
On Monday the Obama Administration praised the efforts of diplomats from China and Russia in easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. China, for its part, supplies North Korea with about 90 per cent of its fuel and 45 per cent of its food. The influence Beijing wields over Pyongyang is significant.
Mr Key's embarrassing attempt at "gunboat diplomacy"- while simultaneously trying to cosy up to the new Chinese president - will hardly help the situation.
It should be noted that North Korea is of considerable strategic importance to China, acting as a "buffer zone" to Western influence.
A united, democratic Korea would probably be more of a friend to Washington than it would to Beijing. For that reason, China is very reluctant to see the fall of Kim Jong Un's military regime. But its recent attempts to cool tensions on the peninsula should not go unrecognised.
That being said, North Korea's defiance of China should be viewed with grave concern. Ultimately, Kim Jong Un and his advisers want to ensure their own survival. For that reason, war is not a palatable option for them either. Unfortunately, the lens through which they view the world has been severely contorted by 68 years of isolation, and the huge loss of markets with the fall of the Iron Curtain in the 1990s and the recent switch of Myanmar to accepting Western influences. And that is why every provocative statement by North Korea must be taken with the utmost seriousness.
A recent article published in the journal Foreign Affairs put it succinctly: "The risk of nuclear war with North Korea is far from remote." And make no mistake; there is a very high probability that any conflict on the Korean Peninsula would trigger one. That is what makes Mr Key's recent comments all the more alarming. There can be no winner in a nuclear war.
New Zealand, for its part, must remain absolutely committed to peace. The international community, as a whole, and other major players must make every effort to avoid war. The key to resolving this crisis is to demonstrate to North Korea that our interests in maintaining peace are mutual. A war - in which thousands, perhaps even millions, of lives would be lost - is in nobody's interest.
General Wesley Clark, former Nato supreme commander, has raised the possibility of an accident or "miscalculation" triggering war. This is a danger only amplified by persistent speculation about the inevitability of conflict. The White House is said to be very nervous about recent publicity given to American military movements, and rightfully so. Gunboat diplomacy will only serve to reinforce North Korea's perception that the West is preparing to attack.
Mr Key can be forgiven for playing Russian roulette with his personal reputation in domestic affairs back home, but not when it comes to New Zealand's credibility on the world stage. His most recent gaffe seriously undermines international diplomatic efforts and will have raised many eyebrows abroad.
Strangely enough, the animal that North Korea identifies with is, of all species, the hedgehog, quietly going about its business but guaranteed to cause the maximum pain if stood on. They went to great pains to convince me of this on my 2007 visit to their capital, Pyongyang.
Of late the hedgehog under the new leader and his recently deceased father has been flexing its spines. It is bridling over heightened economic isolation. However, most likely to be behind its recent disquieting behaviour is the grinding economic poverty, even famine and starvation, under which most of its population have long suffered. Diverting domestic seeds of uprising will not be far from the military leadership's mind.
That is why a further series of bellicose and hostile acts from North Korea are very likely very soon. When that happens, the temptation to overreact must be resisted by cool heads on the Korean Peninsula and abroad.
NZ First Leader Winston Peters visited North Korea in 2007 when he was foreign minister.
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