v. Predictions

The underlying patterns in time series data allow us to make reasonable predictions for future values. This is why we study time series.

Our predictions are never certain.

For our predictions to be of any use, they also need to include the accuracy of these forecasts. We convey this by stating the expected range of values for any predicted value.

In this part of your report you will need to state both of these sets of values.

Include the table of forecasted values for your variable in your report.

Then write up two of these predictions in sentences.

In these sentences it is VITAL you include the units, and round the numbers appropriately.

A complete forecast includes the expected value (average) and the range of values it is likely to lie between.

For each of the graphs make two predictions, the first two have been done for you.

Note: every time the predictions get produced in NZGrapher the min and max will be slightly different as they are produced using a bootstrapping process

Remember:

To get higher grades, you need to contextualise your findings.

i.e

Once you have performed your analysis, you will need to relate your findings back to the problem you are investigating. What do the results mean for YOUR PROBLEM?

1. Sea Ice

In April 2011 I would expect the amount of sea ice for the Artic to be 11.69 million square kilometres. However I cannot be completely certain about my prediction, but I would expect the area of ice will between 11.11 million square kilometres and 12.27 million square kilometres.

In March 2013 I would expect the amount of sea ice for the Artic to be 12.44 million square kilometres. However I cannot be completely certain about my prediction, but I would expect the area of ice will between 9.53 million square kilometres and 15.35 million square kilometres.

2. Births and Deaths

In January to March 2013 I would expect there to be approximately 8030 male live births. However I cannot be completely confident in my prediction, but I would expect the number of male live births for this quarter to be somewhere between 7540 and 8590.

In October to December 2014 I would expect there to be approximately 7410 male live births. However I cannot be completely confident in my prediction, but I would expect the number of male live births for this quarter to be somewhere between 5890 and 9050.

3. Penguins

4. Visitors

5. Imports

6. Forests

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