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In the conclusion we need to summarise and write a statement on what our forecasts actually mean for our issue.
Summary:
Summary:
What were your forecasts? - Expected values and ranges.
What patterns (trend and seasonal effect) enabled you to calculate these forecasts?
Why is the range of forecasted values that size?
Residuals - comment on random variation and appropriateness of model.
Contextualize:
Contextualize:
What do your forecasted values represent?
What is the link back to the variable in your issue - is it going to increase/decrease/stay about the same? Is there an explicit relationship between the variable in your time series and the variable in your issue?
What does the forecast for the variable in your issue mean for that issue?
Evaluate:
Evaluate:
How could you improve the accuracy of your forecasts?
For each of the graphs write up a conclusion, the first two have been done for you.
Example of Conclusion - Sea Ice
Example of Conclusion - Sea Ice
In conclusion, there appears to be a definite decrease in the amount of sea ice at the North Pole. My analysis showed that, on average, the amount of sea ice is decreasing at a rate of 51,400 square kilometres per year (3sf). This decrease has been constant over the 22 year period and suggests it is very likely to continue in the future.
This should be of concern to people living in low lying areas as this means that the melting ice will cause an increase in the amount of solar energy absorbed. This will, in turn, warm the earth and melt land ice. Eventually this melting land ice will cause sea levels to rise, potentially putting their homes at risk of flooding. This risk is probably increased during storms when storm surges will cause the sea levels to rise to even greater amounts1.
Written Report - (so far)
Written Report - (so far)
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