i. Explain the Variables

Purpose Statement:

People who live in low lying areas are concerned about the amount of ice in the sea as when it melts they are worried about their homes flooding. “Even a modest rise in sea levels could cause flooding problems for low-lying coastal areas.”¹

One of the main areas of ice in the world is at the North Pole, or the Arctic, so I am going to predict the surface area of the ice at the North Pole for the next two years.

1. http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/global-warming4.htm

Purpose Statement:

A doctor at the local birthing unit has read that there is a current shortage of mid wives in New Zealand¹. She has asked me to look at the number of births expected in the future so that she can work out if she should be employing more staff or not.

The number of males and females born are approximately the same, so I am going to predict the number of live male births in New Zealand for the next two years.

1. http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/health/2018/02/struggle-for-midwives-as-demand-booms.html

Purpose Statement:

The Phillip Island penguin colony is a major tourist attraction¹. Money from tourism is used by conservationists to protect the penguins from predators and other threats. Similar approaches to conservation could be useful here in New Zealand.

The yellow eyed (hoiho) penguin is an endangered species. It is found only in New Zealand and has four major breeding regions in the South Island². The New Zealand Department of Conservation would be keen to know if the programmes used in the Phillip Island have been succesful and could be used here.

I am going to use the the penguin count from the years 2000 to 2006 to study the population of the Phillip Island Penguins and predict their numbers in 2007 and 2008.

1. https://www.penguins.org.au/

2. https://www.doc.govt.nz/nature/native-animals/birds/birds-a-z/penguins/yellow-eyed-penguin-hoiho/

Purpose Statement:

The greatest number of tourists coming to NZ come from Australia. A lot of money is spent in Australia by Tourism NZ (A government department) on advertising on TV, magazines, newspapers, online, etc.

It would be beneficial to Tourism NZ to know if the money being spent on advertising is having any effect on the numbers of visitors coming to NZ.

I am going to look at the numbers of Australian visitors to NZ from the years 1998 to 2012 and predict the number of visitors in 2013 and 2014.

Purpose Statement:

NZ Post believes that many New Zealanders are doing more and more online shopping. NZ Post would like to investigate this trend by looking at the total value of imports coming through airports around the country.

I am going to look at the Total Airports CIF for the years 2000 to 2014 to see if there has been an increase in the value of imports coming in to the country. I will be using this data to predict the value of imports arriving at our airports in 2015 and 2016.

Purpose Statement:

A financial adviser is looking to advise clients to invest in Radiata Pine plantation forests. The adviser wishes to know if the demand for wood has been increasing over the past few years.

I will be using data of volumes of wood removed from plantation forests to see if the amount of harvested wood has been increasing. I will predict the volume of wood from plantations in 2014 and 2015.