Embedded Files
(Problem and Plan)
(Problem and Plan)
Provide background Info (context) relevant to problem.
Define the "problem" and the parts that link to your time series variable.
Write a purpose statement stating what specific goals (forecasts) you hope to achieve at the end of your analysis.
Graph of time series.
Describe variables used (Time variable and variable being investigated).
Data source identified.
Where is the data from?
Who collected it?
Why was it collected?
Is the data reliable?
Focus on the trends and patterns in the series and how they may contribute to your forecasts and the uncertainty of these.
What is the general trend of the series?
Is in increasing, decreasing or remaining constant?
What was the average rate of change of your variable over the entire time series?
What was the rate of change of your variable at the end of the series?Has the trend been consistent all the way through the series?
If the trend has clearly changed over the course of the series, focus on what the trend was doing towards the end as this will have the greatest effect on the forecasts.
Is there a clear/consistent pattern occurring in every cycle?
Where are the highs and the lows?
Why are there highs and lows during these times?
How much higher than the average are the highs?
How much lower than the average are the lows?Do the cycles change towards the end of the series?
How could this affect your forecasts?
What is the average value predicted (forecast) for the two times/dates in your introduction?
What are the predicted likely range of values for each of these times/dates?
How confident are you in the accuracy of the forecasts?
How good is the model that is being used to calculate the forecasts?What do the residuals tell us about the accuracy of the model?
How are the 10% error levels calculated?
Are these error levels affected by any large spikes? How?Perform a robustness test to see how accurate the model is at the end of the series?
What are your forecasts (include the range of values) for the two time periods you identified in your introduction?
Describe your confidence in these forecasts.
What justification (analysis evidence) do you have for you level of confidence?
How accurate is the model?What do these forecasts tell you about the issue you linked in your introduction?
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