Appropriateness of Model

Overall the model seems to fit the data very well. Most of the fitted values match up with the raw data, however there does appear to be an increase in the difference since 2008 which may be due to an increase in climate change altering the pattern.

Due to the highly variable nature of the seasonal effects the model doesn't fit the data particularly well. It is not too bad before 2002 and appears to have settled down after 2011. Provided the pattern remains settled the predictions should be reasonably accurate.