Predictions
(Forecasting)

The underlying patterns in time series data allow us to make reasonable predictions for future values. This is why we study time series.

Our predictions are never certain.

For our predictions to be of any use, they also need to include the accuracy of these forecasts. We convey this by stating the expected range of values for any predicted value.

In this part of your report you will need to state both of these sets of values. 

Include the table of forecasted values for your variable in your report.

Then write up two of these predictions in sentences. 

In these sentences it is VITAL you include the units, and round the numbers appropriately.

A complete forecast includes the expected value (average) and the range of values it is likely to lie between.

For each of the graphs make two predictions, the first two have been done for you.

Note: every time the predictions get produced in NZGrapher the min and max will be slightly different as they are produced using a bootstrapping process

Remember:

To get higher grades, you need to contextualise your findings. 

i.e 

• Once you have performed your analysis, you will need to relate your findings back to the problem you are investigating.  What do the results mean for YOUR PROBLEM?

Include the table of forecasted values for your variable in your report.

Then write up two of these predictions in sentences. 

In these sentences it is VITAL you include the units, and round the numbers appropriately.

A complete forecast includes the expected value (average) and the range of values it is likely to lie between.

For each of the graphs make two predictions, the first two have been done for you.

Note: every time the predictions get produced in NZGrapher the min and max will be slightly different as they are produced using a bootstrapping process

Remember:

To get higher grades, you need to contextualise your findings. 

i.e 

• Once you have performed your analysis, you will need to relate your findings back to the problem you are investigating.  What do the results mean for YOUR PROBLEM?