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Welcome to A-level ICT
What you need to know:-
What you need to know:-
- What is a simulation model?
- What are the advantages and disadvantages of simulation models?
- How can simulation modeling be used in weather forecasting?
- How can simulation modeling be used in Car Crash analysis?
- How can simulation modeling be used in Financial Forecasting?
- What issues are there surrounding simulation modeling? e.g. parallel and distributed processing.
What is a simulation model?
What is a simulation model?
Definition:
Simulation Modelling is the use of a program to predict the behaviour of a real life system.
Simulation modelling means using a computer and mathematical formulas to imitate a real phenomenon.
General Advantages
- Enables predictions to be made in areas which may be dangerous to humans.
- It is usually much cheaper as do not have to crash planes or cars.
- Some situations cannot be performed in real life for testing purposes – a 10% price hike, making a nuclear reactor go critical.
- Easier to study long term affects by speeding up time scale or by slowing down.
Disadvantages
- Prediction only as accurate as the rules or data entered.
- Powerful expensive computer hardware needed to run the simulations.
- Some things, such as earthquakes, are hard to predict accurately and so hard to simulate.
How can simulation modeling be used in weather forecasting?
How can simulation modeling be used in weather forecasting?
Simulation modelling is very important in weather forecasting.
How are models created?
Collect data
Ø Large number of measurements such as pressure, temperature, humidity, etc.
Ø Readings from all around the world from satellites, balloons, etc.
Derive model
Ø From laws of physics.
Ø Models provide a set of equations to solve / Produce a set of equations (mathematical model) which are solved to predict weather twice a day.
Test / compare
Ø Actual with observed.
Ø Create model / test the model.
Ø What if investigations.
Advantages Simulation Modelling has brought to weather forecasting
Ø Only takes 1 hour to produce a 6 day forecast.
Ø Can predict path of hurricanes, etc.
Ø Can help farmers plan work / Local councils plan / etc.
Disadvantages Simulation Modelling has brought to weather forecasting
Ø 160 million equations to solve – cost of buying a supercomputer.
Ø Long range forecasts cannot be 100% accurate in predictions.
Ø Freak storm / unusual patterns difficult to predict.
How can simulation modeling be used in Car Crash analysis?
How can simulation modeling be used in Car Crash analysis?
Advantages
Ø Cheaper as do not have to physically destroy cars
Ø Safer as nobody is really hurt
Ø Can explore different scenarios more easily
Ø Much more flexible
Disadvantages
Ø Model could oversimplify the situation and not be accurate enough
Ø Bad data errors in formulas will spoil accuracy
Ø No model is ever 100% accurate
How can simulation modeling be used in Financial Forecasting?
How can simulation modeling be used in Financial Forecasting?
There are many examples of financial forecast model/investigations.
Ø Allows the government to predict what will happen if they changed some factors such as raising taxes, reducing interest rates, changing amount of public spending
Ø What will be the savings to the Government if they make half the number of civil servants redundant?
Ø What will be the income to the government if they put a 1% fuel tax rise on petrol How much will the extra payroll cost be if a company gives its workers a 3% rise in salary
Ø Can see the effect of different situations on the stock market
Advantage which must relate to use
Ø Possible to experience a lot more situations
Ø Cheaper as not going to waste money on impossible actions
Ø It can save time as you can roll on the model to see what it is like after more than one year
Ø It can give a government time to prepare for a financial crisis
Disadvantage
Ø There will always be some difference between simulation and reality
Ø Accuracy of the rules and variables
Ø Some situations are hard to model.
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