"First Measurable Snow Coming This Week"

Issued: 11/19/2024 8:20 AM

Updated: 11/21/2024 8:30 AM (WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED, SNOW DAY PROJECTED, MODELS UPDATED)

Event: 11/21/24 4:00 PM - 11/22/24 4:00 PM

Rundown:

Well we're here again. The season's first snow, a big one, is coming tonight night into tomorrow. Snow Day Fever has reached a peak today, as the first rumors of a big snow began last week. So let's get to the forecast and why it matters. It will rain today. This is important not only because we need all the rain we can get during this D2 Severe drought, but because the system providing it will also lead to significant snow. The models now agree that we are getting a lot of snow. Don't get too excited, though. It is important to note that snowfall is very difficult to predict with accuracy. This is especially true with a warm ground, we don't know how much snow will really stick. This brief will be updated once or twice more. As of now, Thursday will likely have After School Activities being cancelled. Friday is no longer a tossup. With the Winter Storm Watch being upgraded to a warning, there is no chance we have school. Snow totals through Friday now indicate 8-14" of snow in parts of the district, with OVER 1 FOOT possible in highest elevations! Maps below.

NWS Alerts & Forecast Info: 

UPDATES...

Don't even read the rest of this brief. There's a Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM today to 4 PM tomorrow. That means anything that would be happening at school is effectively cancelled. 

OLD STUFF...

The National Weather Service's Binghamton office issues snowfall forecasts about 48 hours in advance of the storm. We now have the official snowfall forecast for the full event. 8-12" is NWS' prediction for NPSD area. NWS just this morning issued a Winter Storm Watch. The brief is, well, brief. It doesn't go into much detail, but it confirms further that NWS knows this will have impacts. Looking into the forecaster's discussion, which is where the NWS weather nerds geek out about why the weather is what it is, we see that the scientists don't expect snow mixing in until Thursday night. That is why I have no impacts to the schedule projected for Thursday. 

New updates to the forecasters' discussion says that higher elevations, like parts of NP that are 1800 feet above sea level, will see "a full transition to snow" overnight Thursday into Friday. That's good news because it increases chances of the snow sticking around and piling up. They reiterated that snow will have a "heavy, wet consistency." They emphasize high uncertainty but some level of confidence that higher totals will be in higher elevations. Again, there are no Watches or Warnings currently in effect. If a Winter Storm Warning is issued, it would be almost impossible to have a full school day Friday. 

Now let's look at model data and forecast numbers. NWS just released snow total forecasts for Thursday-Friday evening. This means we now have an idea of the full totals. Forecast uncertainty is still high, but official NWS numbers have anywhere from 1 inch to up to 12 inches for the area. That is up quite a bit from this morning's numbers. Visit the weather page to dig into maps yourself, or scroll down. In summary, the official range forecast has 4-8" of snow for most of the NP School District. That amount could certainly cancel school, but timing is more important than anything. The timing of it shows about 5" falling overnight Thursday into Friday morning, but snow will continue throughout when busses would be on the road, even if there would be a 2 hour delay. The rate of snowfall appears to drop significantly in the later morning hours, but again it is important to reiterate that uncertainty remains high. 

Schedule Impact: (This is the part you wanna see!)

T-Cork's snow day chances. Will be updated often as new numbers come in. (Official projections are in bold) Confidence is a measure of how likely the forecast is to change. Confidence closer to 100 means that these numbers will not change and are virtually locked in. Closer to 0 confidence means that numbers are highly volatile and could swing drastically without notice. 

Recent changes from previous versions:

THURSDAY, 11/21 (Confidence: 99.5)

FRIDAY, 11/22 (Confidence: 99.5)

Commentary on forecast: It wouldn't totally surprise me to see an early dismissal today. The Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at 4 PM, and the elementary busses in the afternoon are out in rural parts of the district well after that time. I don't think it would be totally necessary, but putting safety first makes sense. After school activities will almost certainly be cancelled. They don't want parents and students driving in wintry conditions with the potential of harm. Students coming in this morning reported wintry conditions on roadways throughout the district. Tomorrow will be a snow day. They should announce it ASAP. No reason to wait for the W's to start. 

Model Data/NWS Maps:

Snowfall maps are being updated hourly on BGM's website, which hints to me that they're taking this storm seriously and they are paying close attention to it. Since the first version of this brief, NWS Snowfall maps have been updated to include the full event and now show larger totals, but also a wider range of possibilities.