"Pre-Valentine's Storm: 15" of Lovely Snow?!" -Issued 5:00 PM 2/11/24 (Updated 6:30 AM 2/12) concerning 2/12/24 7:00 PM - 2/13/24 5:00 PM

Rundown:

We just haven't had enough snow yet. Mother Nature has now whipped up a storm that is set to bring anywhere from 8-15" of snow to our area. In this brief, we're going to go through why the range is so wide, and what the chances are of school on Tuesday. Spoiler alert, it's basically zero. Let's talk about why. The basics of this storm detail that rain and wintry mix may start falling on Monday night, with a quick changeover to snow. Most of the precipitation from this storm will be in the form of snow. Snow will fall at heavy rates overnight on Monday, and will continue into Tuesday mid morning, before moving out by Tuesday evening. 

NWS Alerts (Watches, Warnings, Advisories):

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Storm Warning, effective from 12 AM Tonight to 1:00 PM Tuesday for all counties in NPSD, as well as many counties in NEPA. This warning basically means that the District is certain to decide that it is not safe for students to go to school during the length of the warning. The warning details snowfall amounts of 6-12 inches, which is up from the last update. The warning did expand its boundries further south since the last entry. Stay tuned here for automatically updating info.

Snow Amounts & Forecast Uncertainty:

NWS Binghamton has also issued a briefing, which can be viewed here. It details that snow will begin to fall between 10 PM and 2 AM Monday night. There is a Significant threat level (4/5 on the scale) for heavy snow. Snow could fall at excessive rates as well, with up to 3" of snow falling in one hour. NWS is also forecasting that this snow will be about average when it comes to how wet or dry it is. The snow character forecast has also changed, with all of our area expecting relatively dry fluffy snow. The official forecast range for snow is 8-12" across different parts of the district. I personally think that overall, around 10" will fall across most of the district, with very few exceptions. For those that love BIG NUMBERS AND FLASHY HEADLINES, there is a 10% chance that areas of the district see up to 18" of snow from this storm. The forecast for Gouldsboro (higher elevation) is for 11." Yesterday it was 7" and before that it was 11." With this storm in particular, the exact temperature at different levels of the atmosphere have great effects on the snow totals. Also, the band of snow is roughly 80 miles wide, which is small compared to most storms. Miniscule shifts in the track will have significant impacts on snow totals. 

MODEL DATA:

Models shown below from Tropical Tidbits.com! **NOTE: Model data not updated!!**