2.4 Population Dynamics

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman can bear over the course of her lifetime. The total fertility rate in the UK, as of 2019, is 1.65 births per woman. As stated in the graph to the left, fertility rates have hit a record low in England and Wales (two of the four countries that make up the UK). A low fertility rate can result in a population decline.

Mortality rate: The incidence of death in a certain time window. The death rate of the UK as of 2022 is 9.444. The graph on the left displays the growth and projected growth of the mortality rate in the UK. A high mortality rate paired with a low total fertility rate can result in a declining population.

Migration Rates: The difference between immigration into and emigration from the area from the year. In 2021, 573,000 people migrated into the UK and 334,000 people emigrated from it; making the net migration 239,000 people. 9% of the UK's total population was made up of people of different nationalities. The chart to the left displays UK's immigration, emigration, and net migration rates throughout the years.

Rate of Natural Increase (NIR): The percentage by which a population grows in a year. The rate of natural increase in the UK is 1.97%. The map displayed on the left is a map of the current world population growth rate. You can see that the UK is shown in light green, 0-1%; the map was made a while ago so it's slightly off.

Population-doubling time: The number of years needed to double a population, assuming a constant rate of natural increase. To calculate this you need to divide the number 70 by the rate of natural increase. The rate of natural increase of the UK is 1.79%, so you would divide 70 by 1.79 which would be 39.1061452514. So the population doubling time would be around 39 years. The chart on the left displays the past and projected growth of the most populous European countries, you can see that the UK is projected to grow more than any of the other countries.

Social Factors: One social factor that affects fertility rates is the level of education. Countries, where women have more access to education, have lower fertility rates. When women are given the same opportunities as men a lot of them spend more time focusing on their education and careers than having a family. They will wait longer to have children, if at all. In the UK the higher education participation level is 56.6% for women and 44.1% for men, as shown in the chart to the left.

There are many social factors that influence mortality rates. A few of these include poverty, discrimination, and low education. The chart to the left displays the homeless death rates in poverty-stricken areas throughout Wales and England. Another social factor that influences mortality rates is health care. Countries with better health care tend to have lower mortality rates than countries with worse health care. Underdeveloped countries tend to have worse health care than developed countries. The UK is a highly developed country, so they have good health care.

There are many social push and pull factors that influence migration rates. One push factor includes religious intolerance/discrimination. People will emigrate out of a country if they feel unwelcome. One social pull factor is gender equality. A person from a country with major gender inequality might emigrate out of that country and into one with equal rights. The chart on the left displays reasons why migrants come to the UK.

Cultural Factors: Fertility rates are influenced by many different cultural factors. Some of these include religion, the value of children, and the status of women in a person's culture. If children are highly valued in a certain culture, people will generally be encouraged to start families sooner and have more children. If people follow a religion that encourages abstinence, they would wait until they got married to have children, if they choose to have them at all. The status of women in culture is a major factor that impacts fertility rates. In many more traditional cultures, women are encouraged to start a family, have children, and stay at home to take care of them. The graph displayed on the left shows the British total fertility rate, which has dropped significantly from 1875-present.

Mortality rates are also influenced by cultural factors. One cultural factor that influences mortality rates is a culture's view on vaccines/immunizations. There are some cultures and religions that disagree with vaccines. When a large population of people refuses to get vaccinated or vaccinate their children, it can be harder to control fatal sicknesses infecting people. The graph on the left displays the nations with the highest percentages of their people receiving the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccination. Wales, Scotland, England, and Northern Ireland (the countries that make up the UK) are all displayed on the chart; meaning the UK has a high rate of vaccination.

Cultural factors also affect migration rates. One cultural push factor would be religious persecution. One cultural pull factor would be religious freedom. In the UK, human rights and religious freedom are protected by the Human Rights Act. The UK doesn't struggle with religious persecution or anything of the sort, which is why most of their migration factors are not cultural, they're mostly economic.

Political Factors: Political factors that affect fertility rates include government policies (ex: One Child Policy in China), political stability, and political freedom. Anti-natalist and pro-natalist policies play a major role in influencing fertility rates. There are many pro-natalist policies in the UK designed to boost the fertility rate due to their aging population and low fertility rates. The chart on the left shows how the UK's total fertility rate has been dropping since 1880.

Political factors such as war and political violence affect mortality rates in a major way. People flee the Middle East daily due to conflict. In the UK, however, there haven't been any major wars in Britain since World War 2. You can see all the wars in the UK listed on the chart to the left.

Political factors such as war and conflict and government persecution impact migration rates. There is no current war or conflict in the UK and it is not persecuting any marginalized groups of people which makes it an ideal place for migration. The chart on the left displays the immigration and emigration rates in the UK. You can see that the emigration rates are significantly lower than the rising immigration rates.

Economic Factors: Economic factors like higher or lower wages play a role in affecting fertility rates. According to https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12282492/ , "Additional evidence suggested that higher women's wages increase the cost of an additional child by raising missed earnings, and this higher opportunity cost reduces the chance of another birth. On the other hand, if men's earnings are higher, couples have more children and at a young age." The graph on the left displays fertility rates by age in the UK. Currently, people in their early 30s are the ones with the highest fertility rates. People under 20 are the ones with the lowest fertility rates.

Economic factors affect mortality rates in major ways. According to, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK571926/ , "A considerable body of research demonstrates that lower-income Americans have worse outcomes relative to their wealthier counterparts. Thus, adults ages 50 and above living in poorer areas have higher mortality rates than those living in wealthier areas (Currie and Schwandt, 2016)." The chart to the left displays the UK death rates, which are dropping.

A healthy economy, low taxation, opportunities for employment, and higher wages are all economic pull factors that influence migration rates. Poverty, lack of jobs, and low wages are all economic push factors. The UK has a surplus of immigrants moving into the UK. The chart to the left displays immigration patterns in the UK. The most common reason for immigration to the UK is study. The second most common reason is work. Immigration rates to the UK is at an all-time high.