Avalanche Hazard is the potential for an avalanche(s) to cause damage to something of value. It is a combination of the likelihood of avalanches and their destructive potential.
Avalanche Risk is the potential for an avalanche(s) to damage a specific element at risk. It is determined by the element at risk’s exposure and vulnerability to the avalanche hazard.
Avalanche Risk Graphic. Adapted from Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard, 2017 By: Statham, Haegeli, Greene, Birkeland, Israelson, Tremper, Stethem, McMahon, White, Kelly.
An element at risk is anything of value- it could be a person, buildings or facilities, machinery, equipment, or even an operation or organization. Exposure is a function of the time that the element at risk spends in a position where it is exposed to the avalanche hazard. Static infrastructure like chairlifts and buildings have fixed, unlimited exposure. People, vehicles and other mobile elements can manage their exposure to the hazard. Timing, travel techniques and terrain selection are examples of how backcountry users manage their exposure. Vulnerability is how susceptible the element at risk is to damage from an avalanche. For example, a snowcat operator is less likely to be injured by an avalanche than a skier would be. The vehicle provides some protection thereby reducing vulnerability. Avalanche safety gear and traveling with a partner are examples of how backcountry users reduce their vulnerability.
Snow Avalanche Risk Management Framework. Adapted from Technical Aspects of Snow Avalanche Risk Management─Resources and Guidelines for Avalanche Practitioners in Canada (C. Campbell, S. Conger, B. Gould, P. Haegeli, B.Jamieson, & G. Statham Eds.). Revelstoke, BC, Canada: Canadian Avalanche Association 2016.
Avalanche hazard is a function of the weather and snowpack interacting with the terrain. Avalanche hazard can be controlled, i.e. mitigated, through changing the likelihood of avalanches and or the potential size. Avalanche risk is managed by changing or considering the avalanche hazard, vulnerability, and exposure of the element at risk.
Avalanche risk can be managed. In 2009 The International Organization for Standardization created an umbrella risk management framework for organizations known as the ISO 31000. It was designed for all risk management applications and is widely used for avalanche risk management in all industry sectors. In 2016, the alignment of snow avalanche risk management was described in the Technical Aspects of Snow Avalanche Risk Management. You can purchase a physical copy (recommended) or download the PDF from the Canadian Avalanche Association.
As applied to operational avalanche risk management, the context includes the type of operation, its objectives, and potential risk scenarios. Risk assessment includes terrain identification, determining the avalanche hazard, identifying the elements at risk, and evaluating their exposure and vulnerability. This is also where we identify and quantify our uncertainty. Risk treatment is what specific actions we will take to reduce the risk. Note that each step of the process is also linked to ‘communication and consultation’ and ‘monitoring and review’. The framework is intended to be used as an ongoing process, not a one-time or static event. Avalanche hazard and risk are dynamic. Monitoring changing conditions, communication within the operation and between individuals, and review of the risk treatment and its effectiveness are all critical to the process.
This online platform is intended to give you a foundation of understanding around how we link the theory of TASARM to practice within avalanche operations. Once on course, the program will apply risk management structures and processes to model hazard and risk assessment through our daily decisions and activities.
There are specific topics (versus chapters meant to be understood sequentially) that this online module covers. Establishing the context includes understanding the Operational Risk Band for the organization's objectives. The terrain identification step can include the use of ATES and a terrain catalog. Each of the assessment steps (hazard and risk) contain sub-steps ( identification, analysis, evaluation). Core to the hazard assessment step is the use of the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (CMAH) which incorporates all of the sub-steps. Similarly, the risk assessment sub-steps are captured in the risk scenario, strategic mindset, and terrain coding.
Daily operational meetings are an expression of the whole process. Mitigation is an organization’s risk treatment strategy to reduce negative consequences (TASARM 2016).