Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process that requires the forecaster to synthesize a variety of data and evidence into a subjective assessment of the hazard. The process is highly influenced by human factors, personal experience, intuition, and intimate knowledge of the terrain, snowpack and weather patterns in the forecast area. By its nature, forecasting is greatly dependent on the individual forecaster. The CMAH endeavors to create a common framework and vocabulary for forecasters to use when assessing the hazard. The framework directly supports use with the North American Danger Scale, but is designed to be applied to all forecasting operations and to form a universally accepted standard basis for avalanche risk management decisions. The model itself, CMAH, consists of this basic framework for identifying, analyzing, and evaluating avalanche hazard as part of the risk management process.

The model can be simplified as a series of questions and communicated in a group of charts and tables intended to guide answers into certain established descriptors which provide a common language and consistency across different operations. What is the Avalanche Problem Type? Where in the terrain is the problem located? Sensitivity to Triggers? Spatial Distribution? etc. Each of the components of the model has a corresponding table used to support the forecaster in determining the appropriate descriptor. When the assessment is complete, the hazard can be expressed on this chart. Each oval represents an avalanche problem type and a range of possibilities.