The Trans-Caucasus conflict of 2008 saw a Georgian border dispute that initially appeared to be swiftly resolved after NATO and partner nation intervention. Deployment of Western Airpower to Georgia left lingering embers in the region and beyond.

During the preceding Georgian conflict, China used the west’s distraction and the example of Western intervention as a reason and an opportunity to build up forces and invade Taiwan. Taipei’s fall took most observers by surprise and left ripple effects in chip production felt around the rest of the world. Shortly afterwards, Chinese forces seized Hanoi and reduced resistance in Vietnam to disaggregated insurgency, unsupported by any major outside actors. China was then able to compel Cambodia and Laos to join with China. The U.S. effectively ceded military involvement on the mainland during these rapid events.  

President Al Gore had previously defeated George W. Bush in 2004, but found his administration entangled in a years-long promise and painful process to extricate the U.S. from Iraq and Afghanistan. U.S. forces were in transition and ill-positioned or ready to respond to these major world events. The United States issued diplomatic responses, both threatening and empty, that emboldened and hastened China to challenge a unipolar order as well as generating renewed interest in Russian imperial aspirations. 

NATO members feared the use of nuclear weapons and, and many of the actions took place beyond the boundaries of the alliance. As a result, NATO’s actions were disjointed and slow to respond to the emerging worldwide crises and changing global alignments. While some NATO members chose their own path, or formed small coalitions of the willing for various diplomatic, industrial, or military efforts, there was no common NATO unity effort during this period. Most Eastern European NATO states mobilized in anticipation, but states like Germany and the United Kingdom did not.

In 2009, President Medvedev led an invasion of Ukraine and Georgia. The European Union was caught by surprise, as they had been brokering a deal to stave off conflict which many felt had been on solid ground until Russian forces entered Kyiv. Kyiv fell in short order and Tbilisi lasted only weeks longer. U.S. and NATO forces protested and engaged in some clandestine interference, but did not engage in any direct offensive action against Russian forces, as this conflict was outside of NATO boundaries. 

When Russian rogue forces invaded Lithuania through Belarus in March 2009, NATO finally found itself in direct conflict with Russia. This escalation surprised not only NATO, but the Russian central government itself. The Kremlin’s inability to control rogue elements in the Armed Forces and its decision to offload military duties to the Wagner PMC had created a situation where several rogue generals were able to force Russian decisionmakers into a conflict far beyond their initial intentions. The mix of rapid reorganization and privatization in Russia’s military had created rogue elements that were now off their leash.

By the time Russian planners and governmental forces had worked out a plan to try to de-escalate, they concluded that with NATO’s response already beginning. Russia was now committed to conflict until they could negotiate a settlement on better grounds. There was no hope they could sue for peace immediately without paying a heavy price from NATO, either military or diplomatically.

On 15th March 2009, air raid sirens were heard around the world as it held its collective breath. At SHAPE, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, NATO’s Article 5 was invoked. This was it, nuclear devastation would certainly soon follow as the dreaded situation had now at last come to the unwanted climax: NATO had collectively declared war on Russia and another World War was at hand.

But the nukes never came.

This is where our story continued to the early 2010 and the events that transpired in the Long Afternoon War in South America, as the Council of South American States defends the continent from January of that year to the summer months. However, instead of following that story line, we dive into it much earlier.

It is 20th of April in 2009 still. Tensions are high in rest of Europe as World War 3 rages. Finland, Sweden, and Norway are all gearing up for war, but the border remains quiet. Occasional border incursions happen, but it is not all out war. Yet, the countries are sure that it is only a matter of time.

NATO forces have repeatedly flown strikes against Russian forces in the Barents Sea, and through the considerable Northern Fleet, and long range bomber patrols have endured the difficult journey with losses. Finland and Sweden's neutrality, no matter how tenuous, has created a grey bubble in the midst of the global conflict. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization requests Finnish Government to grant basing inside their borders with the justification that war for them is inevitable. Initially the Parliament rebuffs these attempts, maintaining that Finland still has avenues out of the conflict that do not involve total war on its soil. Yet, the small airspace violations, and the situation in rest of Europe convince the hold outs that they have to choose sides despite their prior policy of neutrality.

On the 5th of May, 2009, Finnish leaders convene with their Swedish counterparts on the possibility of a mutual defence pact. Sweden hesitates, arguing that such policy would likely be viewed with hostility by Russia, and thus lead them on the path to war anyway. Swedish leaders, in private, leave the decision for Finland, intending to follow their example no matter what the decision will be, much like had been the official stance with regards to joining NATO. The decision is made on 12th of May. Finland will agree to basing NATO flights, but will not directly partake in offensive operations, hoping that it can protect its sovereignty with a defensive stance. The Finnish government relays their intent to Russia.

Finland has chosen a side.

The first Russian tanks crossed the border on the 20th of May at Raja-Jooseppi on Highway 91, with little effective opposition. Unknown to most, their target is seizing northern Sweden. The next day, at Kelloselkä, another Russian armored advance on Highway 82 pushes deep into Finland, with the intent to capture Rovaniemi. The political maneuvering had proven miscalculated, and the situation deteriorated rapidly for Finland. Unable to stop the Russian advances, Finnish forces cede ground while withdrawing under significant pressure. While Finland had hoped to eventually get foreign troops on the ground to assist in defence, so far only a few squadrons of NATO aircraft have arrived to Lapland, a number far too insignificant to alter the tide.

Stockholm is furious, as their hands become rapidly tied. The Swedish Army is not prepared yet, and it is a faint shadow of its Cold War glory. With the understanding that defending Boden is vital for the northern AO, Sweden rushes to accelerate its mobilization efforts. It plans to utilize the unofficial tactic of “"Fighting to the last Finn” by reinforcing Kiruna and trusting its defence on Kalix and Lule Rivers.

That is not much help to Finnish forces, on the run from Russians and unable to defend Lapland. The front is almost at collapse, and within weeks, effective control over the North is lost as a good fifth of Finland is ceded, and the Russian troops are now near Swedish borders and Norwegian fjords.

It is here that You join the fight. Pushed to a breaking point, the Nordic States need your help. The US help is surely on the way, but seconds count, and no more land shall be given. 

Once again there's hard times ahead Under the North Star.