CAMILLA JAMES

Honeybush (Cyclopia spp.), a kind of fynbos vegetation found in the Western and Eastern Cape mountains, is an important ecological and agricultural product in South Africa. It is considered a complex system due to its variability and unpredictability. The honeybush tea industry faces the challenge of meeting emerging markets' demands while maintaining sustainable harvesting practices, in the midst of an uncertain future due to climate change. Agent-based models (ABMs) are often appropriate tools for socio-ecological systems due to their ability to handle complexity. This study investigated to what extent an ABM could be effective in providing a decision support tool (DST) for stakeholders. We created a prototype model, HoneybushModel, with MARS, a C# multi-agent simulation toolkit. This model was validated with historic data. The model was able to accurately reproduce behaviour of a single patch on the chosen site. However, this accuracy did not always apply to other patches. The model prototype could be a useful DST with the caveat of requiring further enhancements and data resources to become credibly predictive rather than explanatory. The study allowed suggestions for further field research and data collection for modelling, contributed to the well-established body of research showing that ABMs can play an important role in conservation and environmental management, while also discussing issues that can arise in ABM development. 

METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW: