Advanced Excel Modeling

Post date: Jul 14, 2018 12:59:34 PM

Course Goal

At the end of this course you will be able to create dynamic, interactive models with minimal risk and maximum transparency for others to use.

This is under construction.

Introduction

An amateur practises until he can do a thing right, a professional until he can’t do it wrong.”

Psychology for Musicians by Percy C. Buck

Most people think skill differentiates a 'spreadsheeter' from a professional modeler. That's not how I see it. Non-professionals can be highly skilled. I know some. In my opinion what differentiates a 'spreadsheeter' from a 'professional modeler' is in who uses the model: the modeler... or someone else.

There are fundamental differences in how we model when we model for ourselves versus others. When modeling for ourselves we are:

    • Free to figure things out and make massive changes as we go, even while using our model.

    • Free to neglect labeling because we know what each value is

    • Free to neglect structure because we know where everything is.

    • Free to use complicated, convoluted formulas because we know what they do.

    • Free to neglect data validation because we know what is and is not acceptable.

    • Free to correct errors while using our model because we know how to fix them.

All these freedoms spell disaster when modeling for others. When modeling for others we are:

    • Required to understand customer needs and define deliverables before work starts.

  • Required to make models understandable by others with documentation, labeling, structure, and simplicity

    • Required to guide users to where they can enter assumptions and limit inputs to reasonable values

  • Required to protect our model form inadvertent and unauthorized changes that could break our model.

    • Required to deliver error free solutions that simply do not break.

Neglecting any of these requirements can be disastrous. Deliver the wrong thing and we fail. Deliver something our customers cannot understand how to use and we fail. Deliver something customers can easily break, or breaks while being used and we fail.

To re-frame Percy C. Buck's excellent quote: A 'spreadsheeter' models until everything works, a professional until nothing can fail.

This course focuses on building models that cannot fail. But more than that, it shows how to improve transparency and efficiency while reducing complexity and risk. It also shows how to provide greater flexibility, scalability, and connectivity than traditional methods. These benefits grow in value as models become more complex and connected to other models, data sources, and people.

I'm an executive now, but started financial modeling for a small mortgage banker when interest rates in the US were double digits and loans using the rule of 78s created negative amortization. That was a long time ago. Computing was just becoming economically feasible for smaller businesses and VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet, hadn't yet hit the market.

VisiCalc changed everything. It introduced 'End User Computing (EUC)' enabling accountants, engineers, business analysts, and others to do what used to require coders. VisiCalc became the business modeling tool of choice. VisiCalc was limited. Only small models were possible. Over the years VisiCalc faded into oblivion and Microsoft Excel took over. Excel grew in power. Larger, more complex models were possible, but while Excel advanced, most modelers still modeled using the same methods pioneered in VisiCalc.

VisiCalc modeling still works but Excel's advanced features can do far more and far easier than VisiCalc ever could. Excel can pull data from other spreadsheets, databases, and the web. It can protect sensitive formulas from inadvertent and unauthorized changes. It can replace cryptic formulas with self-documenting references. It can compress an incomprehensible sea of data into readily understood at-a-glance charts. While we can still use Excel just as we did VisiCalc, we can do better with Excel's more advanced features.

To demonstrate what we can do, we will create a series of projects using modeling best practices that build on each other to eventually incorporate the core components of advanced Excel modeling: Data Validation, Conditional Formatting, Worksheet Protection, Names, Tables and Structured References, Power Query, and PivotTables with PivotCharts and slicers. We may even get a glimpse of Visual Basic for Applications (VBA).

Violinist Lisa Batiashvili set for first concert of 2018 at Paris venue

Course Objectives

At the end of this course you will understand:

    • The differences and importance of modeling methods specific to modeling for others

    • Project phases and why they are critical to our financial success

    • Model structures and how to leverage them to speed development and improve quality

    • The Input section's structural elements and how to prevent user mistakes

    • How to guide users where they can make entries.

    • How to prevent inadvertent or unauthorized changes that could invalidate our work

    • The Process section's structural elements and how to extend them for dynamic models

    • How to measure model transparency so model reviewers can validate our models

    • How to measure model risk and avoid potential failure points

    • How to document our model at all levels for users, auditors, other modelers and ourselves.

    • How to create dynamic models that accommodate varying number of elements, periods, etc.

    • How to create interactive models that allow users to analyze various scenarios, accounts, etc.

    • How to create displays that convey important information at a glance to users

    • How Power Query can semi-automate dynamic models

    • How VBA can fully automate dynamic models

Course Outline

In this series will we pretend to be commissioned by a professional acquaintance, Payton Remington. Payton has a 'simple' project but as seasoned modelers know, simple projects tend to get complicated. Because we expect changes we can plan for changes. As we explore this course we will start simple and grow in complexity using a structured approach designed for flexibility. Below is a lesson list designed to be followed in sequence.

  1. Project Planning

  2. Model Structure

  3. Model Transparency

  4. Eliminating Data Sync Errors

  5. Entry Validation

  6. Styles and Protection

  7. Self-Documenting Formulas

  8. Dynamic Modeling

    1. Table Types

    2. Model Integrity Checks

    3. Interactive Outputs

    4. Data Model

    5. PowerPivot

    6. Pivot Charts

    7. Slicers

    8. Dynamic Modeling w/Power Query

    9. Dynamic Modeling w/VBA

    10. Model Metrics

This is under construction. Chapters with links are (nearly) ready but are subject to change. The others are still being written.

Quiz

    1. Modeling in Excel is limited to:

      1. Banking & Finance

      2. Business

      3. Engineering & Science

      4. Manufacturing & Inventory Control

      5. Logistics & Supply Chain

      6. Science

      7. Projects

      8. Our imagination!

    2. Creating models for others is no different than creating models for ourselves.

      1. TRUE

      2. FALSE

    1. What is the first thing we have to do when modeling for others?

      1. Determine how much money we will make

      2. Determine how long this will take

      3. Understand what the customer wants

    1. When modeling for others, which of these are required that would not be otherwise?

      1. Structure models so they are intuitive (as much as possible)

      2. Document everything clearly

      3. Validate data entries

      4. Protect our model from improper changes

      5. All of the above

      6. None of the above

Summary

Modeling for others requires considering someone else's values, skills, wants, and needs. This makes modeling for others fundamentally different than modeling for ourselves as we will see in the next chapter: Project Planning.

Legend

Throughout this course you will see these icons. Here is what they mean.

Symbol

Description

LOOK! or NOTE! - What follows is a description of something related to the previous paragraph that I want you to pay special attention to.

Premise - This is a base concept or value that drives decision making.

Utility - Indicates an application or utility (usually free) that can help.

Warning - Indicates something that if you don't know can cause you problems.

Term - Indicates a word that may be unfamiliar and listed in the Terms section of this post.

Terms

I will be using terms you may not be familiar with. I have attempted to list all here and when I use them, link back to this.

References

Others have great insights into table based modeling. So rather than "re-invent the wheel" here are the links

Subject

PivotTable P&L