Health Policy

We use modeling approaches and data analytics to address health policy problems. One major research initiative was to develop population level simulation models of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a major problem afflicting many, especially military personnel and veterans. PTSD is very challenging to diagnose and treat. Other examples include practice variation, health risk assessment, and healthcare engineering.

Another major area of our research is epidemic modeling. We are interested in developing behavioral epidemic models that incorporate human behavior in models of infectious diseases. More information is in this page: Epidemic Modeling

People

Navid Ghaffarzadgean

Alireza Ebrahmivandi

Nasibeh Azadeh-Fard

Publications

Ghaffarzadegan, N., Rahmandad, H. 2020. Simulation-based Estimation of the Early Spread of COVID-19 in Iran: Actual versus Confirmed Cases. System Dynamics Review (in-press). Pre-print available from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040956v1
- Press coverage:
- BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52223193
- Le Mond: https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/05/02/enquete-sur-les-morts-invisibles-du-covid-19_6038406_3244.html
Ghaffarzadegan, N., Larson, R. C., Fingerhut, H. A., Jalali, M. S., Ebrahimvandi, A., Quaadgras, A., & Kochan, T. 2017. Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. In: J.R. Gil-Garcia, T.A. Pardo, and L.F. Luna Reyes ed. Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics: Innovative Tools for Solving Complex Social Problems. pp. 387-406. Springer.
Ghaffarzadegan, N., Ebrahimvandi, A., and Jalali, M. 2016. A Dynamic Model of PostTraumatic Stress Disorder for Military Personnel and Veterans. PLoS ONE 11(10), e0161405. Media Coverage: i. Newsweek: PTSD Likely to Remain a Casualty of War for Veterans, Active Military
Azadeh-Fard, N., Ghaffarzadegan, N., and Camelio, J., 2016. Can a patient's inhospital length of stay and mortality be explained by early-risk assessments? PLoS ONE 11(9), e0162976.
Ghaffarzadegan, N., Larson, R.C. 2015. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Five Vicious Cycles that Inhibit Effective Treatment, The Army Medical Department Journal (October-December): 8-13.
Ghaffarzadegan, N., Epstein, AJ, Martin, EG. 2013. Practice Variation, Bias, and Experiential Learning in Cesarean Delivery: A Data-Based System Dynamics Approach. Health Services Research 48: 713–734.