Epidemic Modeling

• Project 1: Behavioral epidemic modeling of COVID-19

>> NSF Funding: RAISE: IHBEM: Mathematical Formulations of Human Behavior Change in Epidemic Models (link) 

LeJuene, L., Ghaffarzadegan, N. , Childs, L. M., Saucedo, O., 2024. Mathematical analysis of simple behavioral epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences. In-press.

Osi, A., Ghaffarzadegan,  N. 2024. Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response. PLoS Computational Biology 20(3), e1011992. 

Ghaffarzadegan, N., Majumdar, A., Williams, R., & Hosseinichimeh, N. 2024. Generative agent‐based modeling: an introduction and tutorial. System Dynamics Review, 40(1), e1761. 

Lim, T. Y., Xu, R., Ruktanonchai, N., Saucedo, O., Childs, L. M., Jalali, M. S., Rahmandad, H., Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2023. Why Similar Policies Resulted In Different COVID-19 Outcomes: How Responsiveness And Culture Influenced Mortality Rates. Health Affairs 42 (12): 1637-1646. 

• • Media coverage: Medical Press: New models show how human behavior influences pandemic trends (2-6-2024)

  • Media coverage: Going viral: New models show how human behavior influences pandemic trends  (2-5-2024)

Rahmandad, H., Xu, R., & Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2022. A missing behavioral feedback in COVID-19 models is the key to several puzzles. BMJ Global Health 7(10):e010463 

Rahmandad, H., Xu, R., & Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2022. Enhancing Long-term Forecasting: Learning from COVID-19 Models. PLOS Computational Biology 18(5): e1010100. 

• • Presentation video for INFORMS Healthcare, 2021.

  • Media coverage: Medical Press: Looking at human behavior is key to building a better long-term COVID forecast (5-19-2022)

• Project 2: COVID-19 Model for universities

Ghaffarzadegan, N., 2021. Simulation-based what-if analysis for controlling the spread of Covid-19 in universities. PLoS ONE 16(2): e0246323. 

• • >>>>Web app; Try it!!<<<<

  • Media coverage (Video): COVID-19 simulation model shows vaccination equates to return to full semester experience (7-2-2021)

  • Simulation file in Vensim

  • Presentation video for the System Dynamics Conference, 2021.

  • Media coverage: COVID-19 simulation model creates scenarios (2-17-2021)

  • Media coverage: Simulation confirms vaccination key to safe and social return (7-2-2021)

  • Media coverage: COVID-19 simulation critical piece of Board of Visitors' planning (8-31-2021)

Ghaffarzadegan N. 2022. Effect of mandating vaccination on COVID-19 cases in colleges and universities. International Journal of Infectious Diseases 123:41-45.

• Based on a dataset of 94 universities we show that "a COVID-19 vaccine requirement is an effective policy in decreasing cases in such institutions, leading to a safer educational experience."

• Media coverage: Did College Covid-19 Vaccine Mandates Go Too Far? (9-18-2023)

Ghaffarzadegan, N., Childs, L.M., Täuber, U.C. 2021. Diverse computer simulation models provide unified lessons on university operation during a pandemic. BioScience. 71(2): 113-114.

• "The exact reasons that make the university experience desirable during normal times are its Achilles heel in the COVID-19 pandemic era." 

• Media coverage: Virginia Public Radio (1 minute and a half): Large Covid Outbreaks "Very Likely" On College Campuses, Unless....  (10-26-2020)

• Project 3: Effect of weather on COVID-19 Transmission

 Xu, R., Rahmandad, H., Gupta, M., DiGennaro, C., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Amini, H., & Jalali, M. (2021). Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis. Lancet Planetary Health  5(10): e671-e680.

• • Project website: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid19 

  • My interviews: 

    • WVTF:  “The Modest Impact of Weather and Air Pollution on COVID-19 Transmission”

    • Nashville 4 News:  Examining the weather's impact on COVID-19 

  • Press coverage:

    • New York Times: Will Hot Weather Kill the Coronavirus Where You Live?

    • Washington Post: Summer weather could help fight coronavirus spread but won’t halt the pandemic

    • Boston Globe: Summer's hit and humidity not going to stop coronavirus 

    • The Journalist's Resource: COVID-19 infections rise in cold temperatures year-round, study confirms 

• Project 4: Model-based estimation of actual cases

Ghaffarzadegan, N., Rahmandad, H. 2020. Simulation-based Estimation of the Early Spread of COVID-19 in Iran: Actual versus Confirmed Cases. System Dynamics Review 36(1), 101-129. 

• Plenary presentation at SD conference, 2020. 

• Press coverage: 

  • BBC: Coronavirus: Are the bodies of victims undermining Iran's official figures?

  • Le Mond: A l’échelle mondiale, le Covid-19 tue davantage que ce que disent les bilans