BOOK CHAPTERS 

1. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Larson, R. C., Fingerhut, H. A., Jalali, M. S., Ebrahimvandi, A., Quaadgras, A., & Kochan, T. 2017. Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. In: J.R. Gil-Garcia, T.A. Pardo, and L.F. Luna Reyes ed. Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics: Innovative Tools for Solving Complex Social Problems. pp. 387-406. Springer. 

2. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Lyneis, J., Richardson, G.P. 2015. Policy Informatics with Small System Dynamics Models: How Small Models Can Help the Public Policy Process, In: E. Johnston, ed. Governance in the Information Era: Theory and Practice of Policy Informatics. Routledge Press.

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

1. Rahmandad, H., Xu, R., & Ghaffarzadegan, N. (2022). Enhancing Long-term Forecasting: Learning from COVID-19 Models. PLOS Computational Biology  18(5): e1010100. 

2. Farkhondehmaal, F., Ghaffarzadegan, N. A cyclical wildfire pattern as the outcome of a coupled human natural system. Scientific Reports 12, 5280 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-08730-y

3. Xu, R., Rahmandad, H., Gupta, M., DiGennaro, C., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Amini, H., & Jalali, M. (2021). The Impact of Weather and Air Pollution on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: a Global Analysis. Lancet Planetary Health

4. Ghaffarzadegan N. 2021 Simulation-based what-if analysis for controlling the spread of Covid-19 in universities. PLoS ONE 16(2): e0246323. 

5. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Childs, L.M., Täuber, U.C. 2021. Diverse computer simulation models provide unified lessons on university operation during a pandemic. BioScience. 71(2):113-114. 

6. Xu, R., Baghaei Lakeh, A., & Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2021. Examining the characteristics of impactful research topics: A case of three decades of HIV-AIDS research. Journal of Informetrics 15(1). 101122.

7. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Rahmandad, H. 2020. Simulation-based Estimation of the Early Spread of COVID-19 in Iran: Actual versus Confirmed Cases. System Dynamics Review 36(1), 101-129.

8. Davis, K., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Grohs, J., Grote, D., Hosseinichimeh, N., Knight, D., Mahmoudi, H., & Triantis, K. 2020. The Lake Urmia vignette: a tool to assess understanding of complexity in socio‐environmental systems. System Dynamics Review 36(2), 191-222.

9. Guevara, J., Garvin, M. J., & Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2020. The Forest and the Trees: A Systems Map of Governance Interdependencies in the Shaping Phase of Road Public–Private Partnerships. Journal of Management in Engineering 36(1).

10. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Xu, R. 2018. Late Retirement, Early Careers, and the Aging of U.S. Science and Engineering Professors. PLOS ONE 13(12): e0208411 

11. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Xu, R., Larson, R.C., Hawley, J. 2018. Symptoms versus Root Causes: A Needed Structural Shift in Academia to Help Early Careers. BioScience 68(10): 744-745. 

12. Xu, R., Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2018. Neuroscience bridging scientific disciplines in health: who builds the bridge, who pays for it? Scientometrics. In press.

13. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Larson, R.C. 2018. SD meets OR: A New Synergy to Address Policy Problems. System Dynamics Review. In press.

14. Andalib, M.A., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Larson, R.C. (2018) The Postdoc Queue: A Labor Force in Waiting. Systems Research and Behavioral Science.

15. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Rad, A. A., Xu, R., Middlebrooks, S. E., Mostafavi, S., Shepherd, M., Chambers, L. & Boyum, T. (2018). Dell's SupportAssist customer adoption model: enhancing the next generation of data‐intensive support services. System Dynamics Review. 

16. Baghaei Lakeh. A, Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2017. Biomedical vs. Behavioral and Social Sciences: Trends and Variations in Studies of HIV/AIDS. Scientific reports 7: 4170.

17. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Xue, Y., Larson, RC. 2017. Work-Education Mismatch: An Endogenous Theory of Professionalization. European Journal of Operational Research 261(3): 1085–1097. 

18. Hur, H., Andalib, M., Maurer, J., Hawley, J., Ghaffarzadegan, N., 2017. Recent Trends in Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (BSSR) Workforce in the U.S. PLoS ONE. 12(2): e0170887. 

19. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Hawley, J., Larson, R.C. 2017. Education as a Complex System, Systems Research and Behavioral Science 34(3): 211-215. 

20. Guevara, J.A., Garvin, M., and Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2017. The Capability Trap of the US Highway System: Policy and Management Implications. Journal of Management in Engineering 33(4). 

21. Baghaei Lakeh, A., Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2016. The Dual-Process Theory and Understanding of Stocks and Flows. System Dynamics Review 32(3-4): 309-331. 

22. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Ebrahimvandi, A., and Jalali, M. 2016. A Dynamic Model of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder for Military Personnel and Veterans. PLoS ONE 11(10), e0161405. 

23. Azadeh-Fard, N., Ghaffarzadegan, N., and Camelio, J., 2016. Can a patient's in-hospital length of stay and mortality be explained by early-risk assessments? PLoS ONE 11(9), e0162976. 

24. Baghaei Lakeh, A., Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2015. Does Analytical Thinking Improve Understanding of Accumulation? System Dynamics Review 31(2): 46–65. 

25. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Larson, R.C. 2015. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Five Vicious Cycles that Inhibit Effective Treatment, The Army Medical Department Journal (October-December): 8-13. 

26. Richardson, G.P., Black, L.J., Deegan, M., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Greer, D., Kim, H., Luna-Reyes, L.F., MacDonald, R., Rich, E., Stave, K.A., Zimmermann, N., Andersen, D.F. 2015. Reflections on Peer Mentoring for Ongoing Professional Development in System Dynamics. System Dynamics Review 31(3): 173-181. 

27. Hur, H., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Hawley, J. 2015. Effects of Government Spending on Research Workforce Development: Evidence from Biomedical Postdoctoral Researchers, PLoS ONE 10(5): e0124928. 

28. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Hawley, J., Larson, R.C., Xue, Y. 2015. A Note on PhD Population Growth in Biomedical Sciences, Systems Research and Behavioral Science 32(3): 402–405.

29. Larson, RC, Ghaffarzadegan, N., Xue, Y. 2014. Too Many PhD Graduates or Too Few Academic Job Openings: The Concept of R0 in Academia. Systems Research and Behavioral Science 31(6): 745–775. 

30. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Hawley, J., Desai, A. 2014. Research Workforce Diversity: The Case of Balancing National vs. International Postdocs in U.S. Biomedical Research. Systems Research and Behavioral Science 31(2): 301-315. 

31. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Epstein, AJ, Martin, EG. 2013. Practice Variation, Bias, and Experiential Learning in Cesarean Delivery: A Data-Based System Dynamics Approach. Health Services Research 48: 713–734. 

32. Rouwette, E. A., & Ghaffarzadegan N. 2013. The system dynamics case repository project. System Dynamics Review 29(1): 56–60. 

33. Larson, R.C., Ghaffarzadegan, N., Gomez Diaz, M. 2012. Magnified Effects of Changes in NIH Research Funding Levels. Service Science 4(4): 382-395. 

34. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Andersen, DF. 2012. Modeling Behavioral and Dynamic Complexities of Warning Issuance for Domestic Security. International Public Management Journal 15(3): 337-363. 

35. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Stewart, TR. 2011. An extension to the constructivist coding hypothesis as a learning model for selective feedback when the base rate is high. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition 37(4): 1044-1047. 

36. Ghaffarzadegan, N., Lyneis, J., Richardson, G.P. 2011. How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Public Policy Process. System Dynamics Review 27(1): 22-44.  Reprinted: Ghaffarzadegan, N., Lyneis, J., Richardson, G.P. 2015. Policy Informatics with Small System Dynamics Models: How Small Models Can Help the Public Policy Process In: E. Johnston, ed. Governance in the Information Era: Theory and Practice of Policy Informatics. Routledge Press. 

37. Ghaffarzadegan, N. and Tajrishi, AT. 2010. Economic transition management in a commodity market: the case of the Iranian cement industry. System Dynamics Review 26(2): 139–161. 

38. Ghaffarzadegan, N. 2008. How a System Backfires: Dynamics of Redundancy Problems in Security. Risk Analysis 28(6): 1669-1687.