9. Triple-E Framework to Evaluate Trump’s Withdrawal of International Organization

Trump withdraws international organizations like WHO and WHA, eliminates Fed. agencies like DEI and USAID, and Sending his "pillar" ideology to Fed. employees. What do you think China's reactions on these? Will China take this opportunity to win over more world leadership?

If Trump (or any U.S. leader) withdraws from international organizations (WHO, WHA), dismantles federal agencies (DEI, USAID), and enforces ideological purity through his “pillar” loyalty directive, China will likely seize the opportunity to expand its global influence. Let’s analyze this through three perspectives:

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9.1  China's Reactions to U.S. Withdrawal from International Organizations

🔹 Expanding Control Over Multilateral Bodies

• China will increase funding and leadership roles in WHO, WHA, UN agencies, and regional organizations.

• This follows its Belt and Road (BRI) strategy: replacing Western influence through economic and institutional dominance.

• A U.S. pullback allows China to reshape global rules (e.g., health, trade, and cybersecurity policies).

🔹 Health Diplomacy & Soft Power

• If Trump withdraws from WHO/WHA, China will fill the gap with medical aid, vaccines, and research partnerships (like it did during COVID-19).

• Many Global South nations (Africa, Latin America, SE Asia) rely on WHO’s programs—China could condition support on diplomatic concessions (e.g., isolating Taiwan, adopting Huawei 5G).

🔹 Coalition Building Without U.S. Pushback

• A US exit from WHO/WHA weakens G7’s influence in these institutions.

• China may lead an alternative health alliance with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and Global South countries.

9.2  Reactions to U.S. Cutting USAID & DEI Programs

🔹 Winning Hearts & Minds Through Aid

• USAID funds critical infrastructure and humanitarian projects worldwide. Without it, China can step in via BRI and AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank).

• China will fill the void by offering loans, disaster relief, and education programs—expanding influence in Africa, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific nations.

🔹 Weaponizing Soft Power Against U.S.

• China could position Trump’s cuts as a U.S. retreat from global responsibility.

• By framing itself as the "responsible world leader," China can convince nations to align with its global vision.

🔹 Strategic Military & Economic Influence

• Countries reliant on U.S. aid may turn to China for military cooperation (e.g., Djibouti, Solomon Islands).

• Without USAID’s economic programs, China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can dominate foreign markets with little Western competition.

9.3  Reactions to Trump’s Federal "Loyalty Pillars" & Internal Shifts

🔹 U.S. Bureaucratic Chaos = Chinese Strategic Gain

• If Trump’s ideological purge weakens U.S. agencies, China will exploit governance gaps (e.g., cyber warfare, economic influence, diplomatic maneuvering).

• If U.S. diplomats resign or get fired, China will increase its foreign diplomatic presence and secure trade, security, and political agreements with more countries.

🔹 Highlighting U.S. "Political Instability" to Gain Leverage

• China will use U.S. polarization and instability as evidence that “Western democracy is failing.”

• This can justify China’s authoritarian governance model to other nations (e.g., ASEAN, Middle East, Africa).

🔹 Shifting Alliances in UN & Trade Organizations

• Without strong U.S. diplomacy, China can tilt voting majorities in international forums (e.g., WTO, UNHRC) to favor Chinese policies.

• More countries will back China’s trade policies, digital currency (e-CNY), and AI governance standards.

9.4  Summary 1: Will China Gain More Global Leadership?

✅ Yes. If the U.S. retreats, China will step in.
🚀 China will use diplomatic, economic, and strategic means to fill every void left by U.S. withdrawals.
🔗 By providing aid, funding, and institutional leadership, China will win over Global South nations and reshape international norms in its favor.

I think Xi Jinping will be very happy with Trump's policy actions, even more than Pudin will be happy. Because Trump's administration does not seem to have allowed Pudin to gain much on the Ukrainian battlefield, or the peace talks conditions are not very attractive to Pudin. But Xi Jinping has had too many opportunities to become a world leader because of Trump's administration. Of course, the Chinese Communist Party’s policy of plundering the wealth of ordinary people and maintaining one-party dictatorship may also drag down the Chinese economy, leaving China with no extra money to support other countries in the world. For example, the source of funds for the Belt and Road Initiative and the banks it uses to support other countries are also problematic.

Xi Jinping has many reasons to be pleased with Trump’s policies—perhaps even more so than Putin—because Trump’s actions have created opportunities for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to fill the power vacuum left by the U.S. on the global stage. Here are some key points analyzing this situation:

9.5  Why Might Xi Jinping Be Happier Than Putin?

✅ Decline in U.S. Global Influence

• Trump weakened international organizations (withdrew from WHO, WHA, etc.) and cut back on diplomacy and foreign aid, giving China a chance to shape global rules.

• Unlike Putin, who must pay a high price for war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping can expand influence with almost zero cost.

✅ U.S.-China Competition Shifting in China’s Favor

• Trump prioritizes domestic political struggles and shows little interest in global governance, allowing China to adopt a “strategic patience” approach to steadily enhance its influence.

• As the U.S. weakens its diplomacy due to internal chaos, Xi Jinping can gain more international support without taking additional actions, making China appear as a “responsible global power.”

✅ U.S. Alliance System at Risk

• If Trump further weakens NATO, the Indo-Pacific strategies (Quad, AUKUS), etc., China will find it easier to extend its influence, particularly in Asia and Europe.

• Unlike Putin, who mainly relies on “problematic allies” such as Iran and North Korea, China has a broader network (ASEAN, Africa, Latin America), making its expansion more effective.

✅ China’s Global Vision More Attractive?

• If Trump continues the “America First” policy, many developing countries might turn to China for more stable economic and diplomatic support.

• With initiatives like the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI), China can package its influence more effectively, while a retreating U.S. will struggle to compete.

9.6  China’s Economic Struggles vs. Global Ambitions

Although China may benefit from Trump’s policies, its internal economic problems could limit its expansion capabilities.

🔻 Real Estate Bubble and Local Debt Crisis

• The collapse of real estate giants like Evergrande and Country Garden has disrupted China’s economic model, significantly impacting local government revenues.

• Many local governments are deeply in debt, making it harder for China to sustain massive overseas investments like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

🔻 Foreign Investment Withdrawal & Tech Restrictions

• U.S. and Western tech restrictions (on AI, semiconductors, quantum computing) are slowing China’s high-tech development.

• Foreign companies are withdrawing due to concerns over China’s policies (e.g., crackdowns on private enterprises), impacting employment and economic growth.

🔻 Yuan’s Internationalization Challenges

• China hopes to replace the U.S. dollar with the yuan, but exchange rate volatility and strict capital controls make it difficult for countries to trust the yuan.

• If China’s economy declines, the government will likely focus on domestic issues rather than financing developing countries.

9.7  Can China Sustain BRI and Global Expansion?

❌ Funding Shortage & Failing Projects

• Many BRI countries are struggling to repay loans (e.g., Sri Lanka, Pakistan), leading to bad debts in Chinese banks.

• With China’s slowing economy, future investments will likely shift away from large-scale infrastructure projects and toward low-cost diplomatic influence (e.g., AI, financial cooperation, digital infrastructure).

✅ Strategic Investments Over “Money-Splashing”

• Xi Jinping will likely concentrate resources on strategically valuable nations, such as:

  • Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia) → Securing supply chains and tech transfers

  • Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran) → Ensuring energy and strategic resources

  • Latin America (Brazil, Argentina) → Securing food supplies and key minerals (lithium, rare earths)

• Rather than continuing to fund low-return nations (e.g., landlocked African countries).

9.8  Summary 2: Can China Truly Dominate the World?

✅ China Can Benefit in the Short Term

• If Trump weakens international organizations, China can fill the power vacuum.

• Developing countries may become more dependent on China’s resources, infrastructure, and markets.

• Xi Jinping may not need to take significant actions—he can simply capitalize on America’s self-imposed decline.

❌ But China’s Internal Problems Could Hinder Expansion

• Economic issues (real estate, foreign capital flight, tech restrictions) could limit China’s global investments.

• Domestic dissatisfaction with the Communist Party is rising, and if China’s economy worsens, Xi’s leadership will face greater challenges.

• The yuan’s global adoption remains slow, meaning China still struggles to challenge the dollar’s dominance.

🔮 The Most Likely Future
China is unlikely to fully replace the U.S., but it could gain more influence in global politics, finance, and technology standards.
If America remains unstable, China will focus on diplomatic, AI-driven, and digital currency strategies to expand influence rather than relying solely on traditional infrastructure investments.

China's Strategy and Challenges in Global Dominance

Let’s answer the following question: How can China gain greater voice and dominance in the formulation of international politics, finance, technological standards, AI, blockchain, and military diplomacy?

China's influence in international politics, finance, technology standards, AI, blockchain, and military diplomacy is gradually increasing, mainly relying on economic strength, diplomatic means, technological innovation, military power, and policy initiatives. Below are China's possible strategies and challenges in each field:

9.9  International Politics: "Multilateral Cooperation" as a Cover for "Chinese Leadership"

🔹 Strategy:
✅ Establish or strengthen China-led international organizations

• Through BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), counterbalance U.S.-led international systems (such as G7 and NATO).

• "Global Development Initiative" (GDI) and "Global Security Initiative" (GSI) aim to replace the U.S.-led global order and create a "developing countries’ version of the United Nations."

• China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) further consolidates China's influence in the Middle East.

✅ Increase control over existing institutions like the United Nations

• Appoint more Chinese representatives in the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

• Influence global human rights, trade, and digital governance standards with the Chinese model (such as promoting the "sovereign internet" concept).

🔻 Challenges:

• The EU, Japan, and India may resist China’s model and refuse to accept its leadership.

• The U.S. still controls the IMF and World Bank, limiting China's global financial influence.

9.10        International Finance: De-dollarization and RMB Internationalization

🔹 Strategy:
✅ Promote "de-dollarization" and establish a China-led payment system

• Expand RMB-based oil settlements (such as cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Russia) to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

• Encourage the use of RMB in China-Brazil, China-UAE, and China-ASEAN bilateral trade agreements.

• Strengthen CIPS (China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) to reduce dependence on SWIFT (the U.S.-dominated global banking network).

✅ Develop digital currency (e-CNY) to challenge dollar hegemony

• The digital yuan (e-CNY) is positioned as a global cross-border payment tool, giving China an edge in digital finance.

• Promote e-CNY among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.

🔻 Challenges:

• RMB internationalization is restricted by capital controls, making foreign investors hesitant to trust China's financial markets.

• Limited global acceptance of the digital yuan, as businesses prefer transactions in U.S. dollars or euros.

9.11        Technology Standards: Setting Global Rules

🔹 Strategy:
✅ Promote "China Standards 2035" to define global technology norms

• Influence the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), ITU, and 3GPP to make Chinese standards globally adopted.

• Set international rules in 5G, 6G, satellite communications, AI ethics, data security, and smart cities, positioning Huawei, DJI, and SMIC as key players in the global supply chain.

✅ Control data and privacy regulations, pushing the "digital authoritarian model"

• Promote the "sovereign internet" concept in developing countries, encouraging them to adopt China’s approach (enhanced government surveillance, restricted information freedom).

• Help African and Southeast Asian countries build digital infrastructure, increasing their dependence on Chinese tech suppliers.

🔻 Challenges:

• The U.S. and EU are developing a "Trustworthy Technology Initiative" to counter Chinese standards.

• India, South Korea, and Japan also seek leadership in standard-setting and may not fully accept the Chinese model.

9.12        AI (Artificial Intelligence): Leveraging Data Superiority

🔹 Strategy:
✅ Build the world’s largest datasets to enhance AI development

• Utilize data from 1.4 billion people to train AI models (such as Baidu’s Ernie Bot and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen).

• Collect global data through Belt and Road digital infrastructure, further strengthening China's AI capabilities.

✅ Establish AI governance standards to challenge Western rules

• China aims to set AI ethics and regulatory norms, preventing the U.S. from monopolizing these frameworks.

• Use the "Global AI Governance Forum" to influence other countries into accepting China’s model (e.g., stronger government control over AI).

🔻 Challenges:

• The U.S. and Europe promote open-source AI (like Meta’s Llama 2) to reduce China's influence.

• Political censorship may drive Chinese AI talent overseas, impacting innovation.

9.13        Blockchain: Creating a De-dollarized Financial Network

🔹 Strategy:
✅ Develop a China-led blockchain infrastructure

• Through BSN (China’s Blockchain-based Service Network), provide a global blockchain platform, allowing China to set standards in this field.

• Integrate blockchain with e-CNY, making China’s digital currency a key international settlement tool.

✅ Use blockchain for financial oversight and social credit systems

• Build a "Digital Identity (DID) + Social Credit System", shaping global data governance and financial transaction models.

🔻 Challenges:

• The U.S. and Europe promote decentralized blockchain models (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) to counter China’s influence.

• Regulatory issues still pose challenges, making it difficult for China to dominate the global blockchain market.

9.14        Military and Diplomacy: Challenging U.S. Hegemony and Expanding Influence

🔹 Strategy:
✅ Strengthen "Unrestricted Warfare" in both conventional and non-traditional domains

• Compete with the U.S. through electronic warfare, cyber warfare, and AI-powered drone operations.

• Build global military bases (e.g., in Djibouti and possibly the Solomon Islands) to enhance military projection.

✅ Expand "Gray Zone Strategy" to challenge U.S. alliances

• Conduct "small-scale conflicts" using coast guard and navy forces in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait to test U.S. responses.

• Use economic and military cooperation to attract developing countries, reducing U.S. influence.

🔻 Challenges:

• The U.S. still has the world’s strongest military alliances (NATO, AUKUS, and Quad), making it difficult for China to compete in the short term.

• China’s military expansion may slow down if its economy weakens.

9.15        Summary 3: Can China Achieve Global Dominance?

✅ In the short term, China will gain more influence in finance, technology standards, and diplomacy.
❌ In the long run, economic challenges and U.S. resistance may prevent China from achieving full global dominance.