Syllabus and Books and other material:
The course will follow the topics given on the official website closely. Also here is the link to the course run in Hungarian.
The book for the course is Probability and Statistical Inference, Ninth edition, by Hogg, Tanis, Zimmerman.
Prof Andras Vetier, who taught this course previously, has lecture notes with simulations, and you are highly encouraged to look at them. There is also an exercise book there.
D.P. Bertsekas, J.N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Probability, 2000. (MIT lecture notes)
Below is an online textbook on Probability with videos explaining many concepts:
H. Pishro-Nik, "Introduction to probability, statistics, and random processes", available at https://www.probabilitycourse.com, Kappa Research LLC, 2014.
A wonderful site for all things random, many simulations, apps besides complete text etc.
A brilliant site for those interested in Math History and for looking up the many illustrious mathematicians we will talk about during this course.
Some other reference books are:
Grimmett and Stirzaker, Probability and Random processes
Mitzenmacher and Upfal, Probability and Computing
Tjims, Understanding Probability
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Attendance: There is no mandatory attendance for the lecture or the recitations.
Exams and Grading:
Signature: There will be three quizzes conducted in the recitations during the semester. Quizzes cannot be repeated. The quizzes are for 20 points each, and are for a duration of 15 minutes. The sum of two best scores out of the three is you score from the quizzes. To obtain a signature, students must get at least 20 points as their quiz score, and a minimum of 40 points on the midterm.
Instruction for the quizzes: You must take the quiz in the recitation group you are registered for on Neptun. If you miss it in your usual recitation, you cannot take with the other recitation group. There are no repeats for the quizzes. All your work must be done on the sheet provided. You may use a calculator. Notes, phones or any external aids are not permitted. You are not required to write any justification except in theory questions where you might be asked to state a theorem or definition. In all other cases, please just mark/write the final answer.
The tentative weeks in which the three quizzes will be held are: Week 3, 6 and 10. Please see the course schedule on the main page for updated information.
Instructions for Midterm and Final:
A calculator (scientific calculator is okay but not a graphing calculator) is allowed for the exams. Notes and phones are not allowed. You must write the exams on a pre-stapled set of empty paper (these papers should also include any rough work done during the exam). Please put your name and neptun code on each page. Quizzes must be done on the sheet provided. Your results should be numerical (rounded to 4 decimal digits).
You must mention theorems used in your solutions and these theorems must be from the ones discussed in class. Any properties theorems that have not been discussed in class must be proven on the exam to be used.
No form of communication is allowed between the students or with a third party for the entire duration of the exam.
You must not leave the examination hall during the first 30 minutes of the exam.
Below are the tentative dates:
1. Midterm 24th October, 8:00-10:00 am- It accounts for 40% of the final grade. It will be for a total of 120 points and min(your score, 100) will be your final score on the midterm. You have 90 min to complete the exam. You must get 40 points to get a signature.
The first repeat is scheduled for 7th November, 8:00-10:00. The standard university policies about when to take a repeat or the second repeat apply.
The second repeat is on 11th December, time TBD. Please note that the second repeat can only be taken by a student if both the previous attempts at the midterm were unsuccessful (either fail or absent), but the student has a passing grade from the quizzes (a total score of 20 or more from the best two quizzes).
2. Final exam:
Will be a written exam. This accounts for 60% of the final grade. This will also have 6 problems for 20 points each, and again, min(your score, 100) will be your score on the final exam. Please note that you must achieve a minimum of 40 on the final to pass the course.
After computing the weighted total from the above two exams (40% midterm, 60% final), your total score will lead to a final grade according to the following distribution:
If the obtained grade is 2 or more, then there is the possibility of increasing/decreasing the grade by 1 with an oral exam. The oral exam will be based on presenting theorems and their proofs discussed in the lectures along with solving a problem from the recitation problems.
Please note that unethical behavior and copying on the exam will lead to a 0 on the exam. There will be no exceptions to this.
The grade ranges are as follows: [40,55[: 2 (pass), [55,70[: 3, [70,85[: 4, [85,100]: 5.
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