Syllabus and Books and other material:
The course will follow the topics given on the official website closely. Also here is the link to the course run in Hungarian.
The book for the course is Sheldon Ross, A first course in Probability, 8th Edition.
Prof Andras Vetier, who taught this course previously, has lecture notes with simulations, and you are highly encouraged to look at them. There is also an exercise book there.
D.P. Bertsekas, J.N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Probability, 2000. (MIT lecture notes)
Below is an online textbook on Probability with videos explaining many concepts:
H. Pishro-Nik, "Introduction to probability, statistics, and random processes", available at https://www.probabilitycourse.com, Kappa Research LLC, 2014.
A wonderful site for all things random, many simulations, apps besides complete text etc.
A brilliant site for those interested in Math History and for looking up the many illustrious mathematicians we will talk about during this course.
Some other reference books are:
Grimmett and Stirzaker, Probability and Random processes
Mitzenmacher and Upfal, Probability and Computing
Tjims, Understanding Probability
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Attendance: There is no mandatory attendance for the lecture or the recitations.
Exams and Grading: UPDATED!!!
There will be two exams. A calculator (simple one, not a scientific calculator) is allowed for the exam. Notes are allowed for the midterm but not the final. Phones/internet resources are not allowed for either.
1. Midterm- 26th October, 8:00-10:00am. It accounts for 40% of the final grade. It will be for a total of 120 points and min(your score, 100) will be your final score on the midterm. You have 95 min to complete the exam. This includes the time required to take picture, rotate it to a proper orientation, merge to a single pdf and upload it. This will be an online exam. It will consist of two parts. Both parts are timed, the first part is for 45 min while the second for 50 min. The first part will consist of 12 multiple choice questions. You will not have the option to go back to a question once you submit an answer. Each question is worth 5 points. The total of the first part is 60 points. A minimum of 4 questions must be answered correctly on Part One. Failing to do so will result in the exam being unsuccessful and there will not be an option to do the second part. At the end of the first part of the exam, if at least 4 questions were answered correctly, then your current grade on the exam will be displayed. At this point you will have the option to chose this grade and end this exam or attempt Part Two of the exam. Part Two of the exam consists of 3 problems each worth 20 points. You must write your solutions for these clearly and legibly on paper and take a picture and upload it as a single pdf file. The 50 minutes allotted to this part includes the time required to take a picture, rotate it to be of the proper orientation and merge it into a pdf and uploading the pdf. Please note that just a single pdf file is accepted as a submission. Please include all rough work done also in your submission and circle in red ink the parts you wish to be graded. Mention theorems and equations used to get full credit. Collaboration of any sort will result in a zero on the exam for all involved.
The first repeat is scheduled for 23rd November, 8:00-10:00. The standard university policies about when to take a repeat or the second repeat apply. The repeat midterm will also be an online exam with the same format as the midterm.
2. Final exam (Updated!!):
Probability Theory: Exams will be held on Moodle. It can be reached at edu.vik.bme.hu with your EduID.
The exam has two parts for a total of maximum 115 points.
Part 1: 10 questions, 40 min, max 60 points.
Your score on the exam starts at 10 points and each correct answer will lead to 5 additional points. A minimum of 40 points (6 correct answers) is required to pass the final.
If you pass the final exam part 1, then a grade is computed from your score on the midterm (M) and the final part 1 (F1) as 0.4*min(100,M)+0.6*F1. Note that at this point your final exam part 1 score, F1, is between 40 and 60.
The grade ranges are as follows: [40,55[: 2 (pass), [55,70[: 3, [70,76]: 4. You will have the option to either 1- accept this as your grade and end the exam, or 2- register for the second part of the final exam.
Part 2: 3 written problems, 60 min, max 55 points.
This score on this part starts with -20 points. Every correct solution can earn 25 points. Maximum points you can obtain on this part = -20 + 3*25 = 55.
Your final score is computed from the result of midterm (M), final exam part 1 (F1) and final exam part 2 (F2) scores as: 0.4*min(M,100)+0.6*min((F1+F2), 100).
The grade ranges are as follows: [40,55[: 2 (pass), [55,70[: 3, [70,85[: 4, [85,100]: 5.
You are allowed to use notes during the exam. You must mention theorems used in your solutions and these theorems must be from the ones discussed in class. Any properties theorems that have not been discussed in class must be proven on the exam to be used.
No form of communication is allowed between the students or with a third party for the entire duration of the exam.
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