BTCMobick is Your Monty Hall Problem

• Taemin Oh, the founder of BTCMobick

Roughly 10 years ago, I couldn't sleep well, all thanks to Bitcoin. Initially dismissing it as a possible scam or a mass delusion, I even conjured up images of the Tulip Bubble without truly understanding it.

It slowly began to dawn on me that perhaps it wasn't just a fleeting trend, and I eventually concluded that the government couldn't stop it. But why did it hold a value, and was that value stable? How far can this price really go? These questions plagued my mind, robbing me of peaceful nights.

My knowledge proved inadequate; my brain unable to resolve these queries, and there was no one to consult. More and more questions inundated my mind. I found myself isolated amidst this pile of unanswered questions for several months.

Last summer, at an LA restaurant, someone inquired about my feelings when I finally understood Bitcoin a decade prior. He asked me if it was something akin to spiritual enlightenment. However, I couldn't claim such insight, not being an enlightened monk.

In retrospect, the experience wasn't intolerable, but rather a process accompanied by significant mental anguish. The seemingly chaotic questions suddenly vanished, replaced by a well-constructed Lego-like structure. Though a narrative of my own creation, it appeared remarkably robust.

A choice loomed before me. I left open the possibility of my own insanity, unsure whether my story was genuine or a self-deception. However, time would be the arbiter of truth. Choosing to believe in my sanity, I took action.

If asked how I could be certain I wasn't crazy then, my response would be this: Each Lego block was meticulously constructed based on logic, but the foundational belief in my sanity was just a bet I placed.

Allow me to present a question.

In a quiz show, a participant answered all questions correctly and faced a final bet. Three doors stood before him. Two hid goats, and one concealed a luxury car. The participant chose Door A. Instead of revealing the chosen door, the host, Monty Hall, offered another chance, opening Door C, exposing a goat. Now, the host asked whether to change the choice.

This is the 'Monty Hall Problem', which occurred on Monty Hall's quiz show. Marilyn vos Savant, with the highest recorded IQ in the Guinness Book of Records, wrote that 'changing the choice' doubled the chances of winning compared to 'sticking with the original door.' Subsequently, intellectuals, including math and engineering professors, and Air Force pilots protested, arguing the host's choice shouldn't influence the participant's judgment.

The correct answer to this problem is that if the participant sticks with choice A, the probability of winning is 1/3, and if he switches to choice B, the probability of winning is 2/3. Therefore, changing the choice offers a higher probability. You can find the explanation online yourself.

The BTCMobick project we're currently undertaking, I believe, poses similar questions to those I grappled with a decade ago to people with logical minds. It is logical to question how a coin given to people climbing a mountain can have a price, and wonder how the market price, created by small-scale participants, can last. It is natural to say that all these nonsensical things are only possible because the issuer incited not to sell. All this might be a momentary group confusion. Moreover, how can you really trust the issuer?

These queries are intuitive, sensible, and legitimate, akin to the Monty Hall problem where, irrespective of changing the choice or not, the probability seems 1/2.

Yet, we've observed the Bitcoin phenomenon for 15 years. BTCMobick is a project led by someone claiming to have deciphered the Bitcoin mystery from the premise that he is not crazy. It's like the situation where the host opens the 'goat door' and asks if you will change your choice. The probability is not 1/2. It is biased towards one side.

Will Bitcoin vanish? Is Taemin Oh crazy? His predictions on Bitcoin mining's eco-friendliness, the impossibility of CBDCs, and others have proven correct. Coincidences?

These questions are like the 'goat door' in the Monty Hall problem. Now, it's your turn to choose. All the skeptical questions about BTCMobick from 'logical' minds echo the questions I faced nine years ago. Not a single exception.

One may now profess trust in Satoshi Nakamoto, but in 2014, we had no clue about his whereabouts or activities.

The Monty Hall problem stirred controversy in the U.S. intellectual community, revealing that the common sense of authoritative scholars can be wrong. We must acknowledge the possibility of history repeating itself.

My perspective is this: If Bitcoin is robust, BTCMobick won't easily vanish. If the issuer is truly crazy, he'll dismantle the Lego blocks he created. However, wouldn't you have a better chance betting on the side that he’s not?

I wish luck to those confronting this heap of questions. Enlightenment may be just one door away.

#Mobick #BTCMobick #Bitcoin #MontyHall