2025 Winter Meeting Program

Day 1: January 5 (Sun)

受付/Badge Pick-up

9:20–9:35, Reception (9th Floor)

開会/Greetings

9:40–9:55, Room 913

Welcome Remarks

Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego)

セッション 1 / Session 1 (in English)

9:55–10:55 Room 913

  Chair: Kentaro Fukumoto (The University of Tokyo) 

1.1 "Causal Representation Learning with Generative Artificial Intelligence: Application to Texts as Treatments"

Kosuke Imai (Harvard University) and Kentaro Nakamura (Harvard University)

1.2 "Consumer Backlash against Globalization: Evidence from Amazon Product Reviews"

Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego)

スポンサード・セッション/ Sponsored Session (in Japanese)

11:05–11:25 Room 913

  Chair: Kentaro Fukumoto (The University of Tokyo) 

"株式会社日立製作所の取り組み「未来シナリオシミュレータ」"

Koichiro Yawata (Hitachi, Ltd.)

ポスターセッション (I) / Poster Session (I)

11:30–13:30 Room 913

I.1 "Impact of Candidates’ Facial Appearance on Number of Votes"

Junichiro Wada (Yokohama City University)

Discussant: Shuhei Kitamura (Osaka University)

I.2 “Soft Power through Gaming: Examining Black Myth: Wukong's Role in Cross-Strait Relations and Public Opinion”

Tiffany Ting-Yu Lee (Academia Sinica) and Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen (Academia Sinica)

Discussant: Michio Umeda (Komazawa University)

I.3 “The Impact of Lockdown Policy on Political Violence in India”

Ryoun Ukita (The University of Tokyo)

Discussant: Manabu Kuroki (Yokohama National University)

I.4 “Exploring Multiple Effects from Summit Diplomacy: Evidence from the G20 Summit Meetings”

Bui Nhung Anh, Takanori Kurose, Yuma Nishihara, Rina Shirai, Nanae Takeda, Ayaka Wada, Azusa Katagiri（Osaka University）

Discussant: Yoshiharu Kobayashi (University of Leeds)

I.5 “Legacies of Atomic Bombings: Contemporary Foreign Policy Attitudes in Japan”

Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis)

Discussant: Marisa Kellam (Waseda University)

I.6 “Detecting Disinformation in Large-Scale Text Corpora Using Generative AI and Fact-Check Databases: Evidence from the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election”

Kota Mori (Japan Data Science Consortium), Yasutomo Kimura (Otaru University of Commerce), Yuki Mikiya (Keio University), Mitsuo Yoshida (University of Tsukuba), Yuko Kasuya (Keio University)

Discussant: Gaku Ito (Osaka Metropolitan University)

I.7 “Dimensional Dynamics in Global Politics: A Nonparametric Bayesian Model of UNGA Voting”

Tung-Wen Wu (dip Institute of Technology, dip Corp.)

Discussant: Hiroto Katsumata (The University of Tokyo)

I.8 “Consumers have a say: Public attitude toward green industrial policy”

Yuto Ota (UCLA, RIETI)

Discussant: Susumu Annaka (Hirosaki University)

I.9 “How the Shift from an Election to a Political Appointment System Affects Women's Descriptive Representation”

Hideto Sakai (The University of Tokyo)

Discussant: Ikuma Ogura (Hitotsubashi University) 

セッション 2A / Session 2A (in English)

13:40–15:10 Room 913

   Chair: Tetsuya Matsubayashi (Osaka University) 

2A.1 "Revisiting the Effect of Distributive Politics in Sustaining Authoritarian Legacy: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity"

Hanna Lee (University of Michigan)

2A.2 “Does Intra-Party Disagreement Reduce Affective Polarization?”

Wataru Onishi (University of California, Riverside)

2A.3 “Failed states as a political survival strategy? An examination of 32 African countries from 2000 to 2020”

Jou Fei Huang (Academia Sinica)

セッション 2B / Session 2B (in Japanese)

13:40–15:10 Room 912

   Chair: Junichiro Wada (Yokohama City University) 

2B.1 When the State Kills: Strategic Death Penalty Executions in Japan

Hirofumi Miwa (Gakushuin University)

2B.2 The Political Legacy of Feminist Movements on Childcare Policies: Analyzing the Long-term Effects of Social Movements in South Korea

Kazuhiro Terashita (Kyoto University)

2B.3 Analyzing Political Bias in Generative AI: A Valence-Based Examination of Japanese Political Parties Using GPT-4o mini

Kanaru Fukushige (Waseda University), Elad Segev (Tel Aviv University), Tetsuro Kobayashi (Waseda University)

セッション 3A / Session 3A (in English)

15:20–16:50 Room 913

  Chair: Kosuke Imai (Harvard University)

3A.1 “Designing Multi-Site Studies for External Validity: Site Selection via Synthetic Purposive Sampling”

Naoki Egami (Columbia University), Diana Da In Lee (Princeton University)

3A.2 “Limits of Generative AI Models in Diverse Contexts: Comparing American and Japanese Political Predictions”

Cleone Mitsui (Osaka Metropolitan University), Yuta Kawamura (Osaka Metropolitan University)

3A.3 “ACROSS: Accessible Country-Relevant Outlier Selection System”

Cantay Caliskan (University of Rochester), Benjamin Noe (Georgia Institute of Technology), Keitaro Ogawa (Columbia University), Oskar Lelko (University of Rochester)

セッション 3B / Session 3B (in English)

15:20–16:50 Room 912

  Chair: Shuhei Kurizaki (Waseda University)

3B.1 “When Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Polarization?”

Yuki Atsusaka (University of Houston), Theodore Landsman (Georgetown University)

3B.2 “How Women Rule: Empathy in Legal Decision-Making”

Luzmarina Garcia (Florida Atlantic University)

3B.3 “Elections with Opinion Polls: Information Acquisition and Aggregation”

Andrei Gomberg (ITAM), Tetsuya Hoshino (ITAM)

セッション 4A / Session 4A (in English)

17:00–18:00 Room 913

  Chair: Teppei Yamamoto (Waseda University)

4A.1 “Kinmen, kinsmen? An experiment of fait accompli in Taiwan”

Viet Hung Nguyen Cao (Waseda University)

4A.2 “Blending Victory and Victimhood: Evidence from Narratives of the Sino-Japanese War”

Gary Leung (Yale University)

セッション 4B / Session 4B (in English)

17:00–18:00 Room 912

  Chair: Junko Kato (The University of Tokyo)

4B.1 “More than words? Understanding Multimodal Political Communication: A Computational Analysis of Textual and Visual Elements in the EP 2024 Campaign”

Luigi Curini (University of Milan) and Giovanni Pagano (University of Milan)

4B.2 “Ideological synergies as proxy for coalition efficiency in presidential systems”

Koichi Osamura (University of Vienna)

Day 2: January 6 (Mon)

セッション 5A / Session 5A (in English)

9:30-10:30 Room 913

  Chair: Naoko Matsumura (Kobe University)

5A.1 “Claimability in International Relations: Oil Discoveries, Territorial Claims, and Interstate Conflicts”

Kyosuke Kikuta (Institute of Developing Economies)

5A.2 “The Conventional and Nuclear Balance and the Success of Extended Nuclear Deterrence”

Yukari Iwanami (University of Tokyo)

セッション 5B / Session 5B (in English)

9:30-10:30 Room 912

  Chair: Tomoko Matsumoto (Tokyo University of Science)

5B.1 “Countering Misinformation Early: A Grassroots Media Literacy Intervention for Rural Populations in India”

Priyadarshi Amar (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Sumitra Badrinathan (American University), Simon Chauchard (University Carlos III Madrid), and Florian Sichart (Princeton University)

5B.2 “Public Media Do Serve the State: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment”

Toshifumi Kuroda (Tokyo Keizai University) and Shuhei Kitamura (Osaka University)

セッション 6A / Session 6A (in English)

10:40-11:40 Room 913

  Chair: Koji Kagotani (Chuo University)

6A.1 “Foreign Bogeymen: China’s Use of Anti-Foreign Media Propaganda to Counter External Threats”

Linette Lim (University College Dublin)

6A.2 “Private Information and Rebel Factionalization: Evidence from China's Cultural Revolution”

Xin Nong (Hitotsubashi University) and Mike Findley (University of Texas at Austin)

セッション 6B / Session 6B (in English)

10:40-11:40 Room 912

  Chair: Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego)

6B.1 “Renewing the Debate over Decentralization and Political Stability: Pre-Analysis Plans for Field Experiments in Kenya and Bangladesh”

Austin Mitchell (Hiroshima University)

6B.2 “Exploring Civilisational Populism Among Turkish and Indian Diasporas in Australia: Predictors of Support for Populists and Latent Profiles of Populist Supporters”

Daniel Courtney (University of Dundee), Ana-Maria Bliuc (University of Dundee), and Ihsan Yilmaz (Deakin University)

ポスターセッション (II) / Poster Session (II)

11:50–13:50 Room 913

II.1 “Measuring Voter Preferences for Female Candidates Using Machine Learning”

Songeun (Emily) Lee (University of Houston)

Discussant: Yuki Shiraito (University of Michigan)

II.2 “Are Women Truly Progressive?: Evidence from the Japanese Diet”

Kenshin Takagi (Doshisha University) and Mitsunori Umemura (Doshisha University)

Discussant: Daiki Kishishita (Tokyo University of Science)

II.3 “Women and Democratization: A Comparative Analysis”

Nina Oiki (Waseda University)

Discussant: Kenneth McElwain (The University of Tokyo)

II.4 “Does Business Experience Lead to More Unilateral Policymaking? Evidence from CEO Governors in the United States”

Takaharu Saito (Nagoya University of Commerce & Business)

Discussant: Jun Goto (GRIPS)

II.5 “Leader Attributes, Survival incentives, and Interstate War Termination”

Kenji Tatara (National Defense Academy)

Discussant: Sayumi Miyano (Osaka University)

II.6 “Can ODA Transform Donor Countries into In-group Members? Evidence from International Field Experiment on Sri Lankan Road Project”

Masataka Harada (Tohoku University), So Morikawa (The University of Tokyo), and Ryo Mikami (Shinshu University)

Discussant: Tetsuro Kobayashi (Waseda University)

II.7 “Bureaucratic Incentives in Authoritarian Diplomacy? Observations from China's "Wolf Warrior" Diplomats”

Yuki Mikiya (Keio University), Yasutomo Kimura (Otaru University of Commerce), Kota Mori (Japan Data Science Consortium Co. Ltd.), Mitsuo Yoshida (University of Tsukuba), Yuko Kasuya (Keio University)

Discussant: Azusa Katagiri (Osaka University)

II.8 “Do Time Constraints Escalate Interstate Crisis?”

Yuki Kogane, Akari Uchita, Mizuki Nakano, Michiaki Hioki, Rin Miyake, Yuto Morita, Chihiro Yasuda, Yuki Yamane, Azusa Katagiri (Osaka University)

Discussant: Chishio Furukawa (Yokohama National University)

閉会 / Closing remarks

13:50–14:05 Room 913

Closing Remarks

Kentaro Fukumoto (The University of Tokyo)

謝辞/Acknowledgement

本集会は村田学術振興・教育財団とカリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校社会科学部からの助成、及び、株式会社日立製作所から協賛を受け開催します。/ This meeting is supported by a grant from the Murata Science Foundation and School of Social Sciences, UC San Diego and sponsored by Hitachi, Ltd.