Workshop Quebec 2015

Uncertainty Analysis Methodologies Workshop

“All models are wrong but some are useful”*

*Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987), Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.

Organised by Data and Models Working Group

Chaired by: Manfred Kleidorfer (manfred.kleidorfer@uibk.ac.at), Robert Sitzenfrei (robert.sitzenfrei@uibk.ac.at), University of Innsbruck,

Alma Schellart (a.schellart@sheffield.ac.uk), University of Sheffield

When: Saturday, September 19, 2015, 09:30 AM to 04:00 PM

Venue: Chateau Mont-Sainte Anne

Description

One of the thematic areas of the JCUD Data and Models Working Group has been uncertainties in data and models, and their impact on model results and model application. After workshops in Lyon (Novatech 2007), Edinburgh (ICUD 2008), Tokyo (UDM 2009), Belgrade (UDM 2012) and Lyon (Novatech 2013) we would like to follow this tradition and again bring together people working on data and model uncertainties, methods for calibration and validation, or people who experienced problems in reproducing measured data.

Accurate modelling of water quantity and/or water quality parameters in water bodies is essential as water resource management decisions are generally based on these predictions. However, the uncertainties in model results can be extensive and not well understood. Several methodologies in various fields have been proposed to assess uncertainty, and we are looking for people who have tested any type of uncertainty analysis application for their applicability to hydrological and water quality studies.

This workshop is open for everyone: model users, model developers, experienced researchers and people new to this field of study are all invited to share their enlightenment with us. We have presentations from different research groups in the morning.

We hope for honest and open discussion about problems in different modelling studies. We do not want to look for the good results and hide our poor ones but we want to increase our understanding by discussing problems. This should help us to point out the requirements for future research.

In the afternoon we want to identify possibilities of collaboration and joint papers, see how (if) we progressed from the “Why don’t our models work” workshop in 2013 and give you some time to discuss and plan collaborations in smaller groups.

Workshop programme

9:30 – 09:40 Welcome to the workshop, and brief introduction of the Data and Models Working Group

09:40 – 10:00 Social scenario modelling/deep uncertainty Christian Urich, Monash University.

10:00 - 10:20 An overview of the discussions and outcomes of the Watermatex Uncertainty workshop. Lina Belia, Chair of IWA Design and Operation Uncertainty.

10:20 – 10:40 Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies. Alma Schellart and Ambuj Sriwastava, University of Sheffield.

10:40 – 11:00 Discussion and questions

11:00 – 11:20 Tea/coffee break

11:20 – 11:40 Global sensitivity analysis for stormwater modelling. Giorgio Mannina, University of Palermo.

11:40 – 12:00 On recent approaches to assess model structure and input uncertainty. Omar Wani, EAWAG

12:00 – 12:20 Surrogate models for fast simulation of drainage systems – getting uncertainty into the picture, Luca Vezzaro, DTU- Technical University of Denmark.

12:20 – 12:30 Discussion and questions

12:30 – 13:30 Lunch

13:30 – 14:30 Group discussions on uncertainty analysis methodologies and their suitability for urban drainage modelling.

14:30 – 14:45 Tea/coffee break

14:45 - 15:00 Introduction to joint papers published previously and progress on initiatives from the 2013 ‘Why don’t our models work’ workshop, by Manfred Kleidorfer, University of Innsbruck.

15:00 – 16:00 Break-out groups discussing collaborations and potential for joint papers, moderated by Manfred Kleidorfer.

Documents