Who am I? Pls go to Wikipedia, Google Scholar. My vita in PDF.
Hayashi-Tachi GDP nowcast for Japan (inaugurated 14 December 2020, updated weekly)
As of 28 June 2024, the nowcast (an annualized seasonally-adjusted real rate of change from the previous quarter) stands at 4.69% for 2024:Q2.
graph(s) in PDF of the nowcast since the start of the quarter for recent quarters: 2023:Q2, 2023:Q3, 2023:Q4, 2024:Q1, 2024:Q2.
Graphs for earlier quarters since 2007:Q4 are in this zipped file. The underlying nowcast data for those graphs are here (a csv file). In this csv file, the nowcast, as of 20080104 (4 January 2008), of real, seasonally adjusted GDP growth from 2007:Q3 to Q4 is 2.95% per year.
What is the Hayashi-Tachi nowcast? A nowcast of Japan's seasonally-adjusted real GDP based on the state-space methodology. For details, refer to my paper with Y. Tachi ( August 2022 version in PDF, this version was published on-line in September 2022 in Empirical Economics).
Recent Work
"The Root Cause of Japan's 30-year Stagnation: Implications for the U.S., Europe, and East Asia", PDF of August 2023 version. SSRN abstract can be viewed at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4553699.
"Nowcasting Japan's GDP", co-authored with Yuta Tachi, PDF of August 2022 version, published on-line in September 2022 in Empirical Economics, archived here.
"The Nowcast Revision Analysis Extended", co-authored with Yuta Tachi, October 2021, PDF, Economics Letters, December 2021 (formerly titled "Generalized Nowcast Revision Analysis", August 2021, SSRN Abstract is here), replication files in zip (nowcast values independently verified by co-author).
"Analytically Deriving Risk-Neutral Densities from Volatility Smiles in Delta", July 2019, PDF, Journal of Derivatives, Summer 2020.
"Exiting from Quantitative Easing", co-authored with J. Koeda, Quantitative Economics, July 2019, open access.
"Peril of the Inflation Exit Condition", Japanese Economic Review, March 2019, limited-time open access.
"Computing Equilibrium Bond Prices in the Vayanos-Vila Model", Research in Economics, June 2018, open access, replication files in zip.
"The Long-Run Taylor Principle Revisited", Economics Letters, December 2017, PDF.