Who am I? Pls go to Wikipedia, Google Scholar. My vita in PDF.
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Hayashi-Tachi GDP nowcast for Japan (inaugurated 14 December 2020, updated weekly)
As of 25 September 2026, the nowcast (an annualized seasonally-adjusted real rate of change from the previous quarter) is 2.09% for 2026:Q3 (unchanged from last Friday because of no new data releases).
graph(s) in PDF of the nowcast for recent quarters: 2025:Q3, 2025:Q4, 2026:Q1, 2026:Q2, 2026:Q3.
The underlying nowcast data for those graphs are here (a csv file). In this csv file, the nowcast, as of 20080104 (4 January 2008), of real, seasonally adjusted GDP growth from 2007:Q3 to Q4 is 2.95% per year.
What is the Hayashi-Tachi nowcast? A nowcast of Japan's seasonally-adjusted real GDP based on the state-space methodology. For details, refer to my paper with Y. Tachi ( August 2022 version in PDF, this version was published on-line in September 2022 in Empirical Economics).
Recent Work
"The Root Cause of Japan's Reversal of Fortune: Implications for China, the U.S., and Other Mature Economies", SSRN abstract (you can download the August 2026 version from here).
"Nowcasting Japan's GDP", co-authored with Yuta Tachi, PDF of August 2022 version, published on-line in September 2022 in Empirical Economics, archived here.
"The Nowcast Revision Analysis Extended", co-authored with Yuta Tachi, October 2021, PDF, Economics Letters, December 2021 (formerly titled "Generalized Nowcast Revision Analysis", August 2021, SSRN Abstract is here), replication files in zip (nowcast values independently verified by co-author).
Replication File(s) for Ealier Work
Replication files in zip for “Computing Equilibrium Bond Prices in the Vayanos-Vila Model”, Research in Economics 72, Issue 2 (June 2018), pp. 181-19.
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