Who am I? Pls go to Wikipedia, Google Scholar. My vita in PDF.
Embedded Files
Hayashi-Tachi GDP nowcast for Japan (inaugurated 14 December 2020, updated weekly)
As of 10 October 2025, the nowcast (an annualized seasonally-adjusted real rate of change from the previous quarter) is -0.71% for 2025:Q3 and 0.89% for 2025:Q4.
graph(s) in PDF of the nowcast since the start of the quarter for recent quarters: 2024:Q4, 2025:Q1, 2025:Q2, 2025:Q3, 2025:Q4.
Graphs for earlier quarters since 2007:Q4 are in this zipped file. The underlying nowcast data for those graphs are here (a csv file). In this csv file, the nowcast, as of 20080104 (4 January 2008), of real, seasonally adjusted GDP growth from 2007:Q3 to Q4 is 2.95% per year.
What is the Hayashi-Tachi nowcast? A nowcast of Japan's seasonally-adjusted real GDP based on the state-space methodology. For details, refer to my paper with Y. Tachi ( August 2022 version in PDF, this version was published on-line in September 2022 in Empirical Economics).
Recent Work
"The Root Cause of Japan's 30-year Stagnation: Implications for China, the U.S., and Other Mature Economies", PDF of June 2025 version, SSRN abstract .
"Nowcasting Japan's GDP", co-authored with Yuta Tachi, PDF of August 2022 version, published on-line in September 2022 in Empirical Economics, archived here.
"The Nowcast Revision Analysis Extended", co-authored with Yuta Tachi, October 2021, PDF, Economics Letters, December 2021 (formerly titled "Generalized Nowcast Revision Analysis", August 2021, SSRN Abstract is here), replication files in zip (nowcast values independently verified by co-author).
Replication File(s) for Ealier Work
Replication files in zip for “Computing Equilibrium Bond Prices in the Vayanos-Vila Model”, Research in Economics 72, Issue 2 (June 2018), pp. 181-19.
Google Sites
Report abuse