EPI & ERI graphs below are via daily Covid19 cases. For EPI & ERI-type graphs (i.e., via other data sets) click here.

Notation: EPI -Epidemic Index; ERI - Epidemic Risk Index.

The pandemic is in a low-risk zone!!!!

The UK R number/EPI <1 since 18 November. The Risk number is decreasing. The pandemic is declining. The lockdown restrictions are working.

Both, EPI/R number and risk number/ERI are decreasing. The positive trend continues. On 3 Nov, R number / EPI = 0.99 < 1. The Risk number ERI is still very high but decreasing.

The pandemic in the UK is NOT under control. R number/EPI > 1 but decreasing. Risk number >1 and stabilised. Still high risk. Red alert.

The pandemic continues to surge. Both parameters, EPI and ERI, are above 1 and increasing. The 2nd wave!

Since 27th of July, ERI (Risk Index) is above 1 and increasing. Pandemic surge or random spike? Alert level: RED!

Since 19th July, R number/Epidemic Index EPI is above 1.