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We will conclude this adventure to complexity with a significant event that has marked human history and ranks with the Antonine and Justinian plagues, the Black Death, the depopulation of the Americas, and the 1918 influenza: COVID-19 Pandemic. Infection by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19. An outbreak was first identified in Wuhan, China, on December 12, 2019. By March 11, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic after 118,000 cases in 114 countries were reported, with 4,291 deaths [13]. Only a year later, as of April 30th, 2021, COVID-19 has infected more than 150 million people and killed 3.1 million [14].
How did COVID-19 spread so fast? Why is COVID-19 worse than seasonal flu? Why did governments worldwide implement shutdowns and limit travel before the vaccine was available, especially in cities with a large population? How many people needed to be vaccinated to effectively reduce the spread?
Examine COVID-19 spread in a human community system
Examine COVID-19 spread in a human community system
Let's examine the COVID-19 pandemic from a systems perspective. Given a pandemic is an epidemic spreading over several countries and continents [15] , we can start with understanding how an epidemic occurs in a population. We can view human beings and coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 within a community as a complex system where people continuously interact with viruses and with one another. The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and people determine what types of interactions will take place and how they will take place.
Elements: Humans and SARS-CoV-2 viruses. People in the community are similar in terms of they have similar physiological structures and social behaviors but not identical. SARS-CoV-2 viruses are similar in how they infect people and reproduce within the human body.
Epidemic: the increase, often sudden, in the cases of a disease in a population above the normal level in that area.
Pandemic: An epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, affecting many people [11].
Pandemic: An epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, affecting many people [11].
Interactions: The following processes cause multiple interactions between viruses and humans and among humans.
The infection of SARS-CoV-2 virus
The SARS-CoV-2 virus infects people primarily through respiratory droplets. When an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes, they release tiny droplets containing the virus into the air, which can be inhaled by others nearby. Once the virus enters the body, the spike protein on the virus binds to a protein called ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) on the surface of cells in the respiratory system, facilitating the virus's entry into the cell. Once inside, the virus hijacks the cell's machinery, using it to produce more copies of itself, which spread to nearby healthy cells, continuing the infection within the infected individual’s body.
As the virus multiplies, infected individuals may not show symptoms immediately, but they can still spread the virus to others through coughing, sneezing, or even talking, as more viruses are produced within their bodies. This pre-symptomatic period is called the incubation period. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has a longer incubation period (5-6 days) compared to the seasonal flu (1-4 days).
The virus can linger in the air for a while or settle on surfaces, and people can get infected by breathing in these droplets or by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching their faces.
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